Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.84 – ¥15.70 · fair‑value band ¥4.28 – ¥7.13 · the ¥9.35 price screens above the ¥5.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating.
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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating. The Alumina segment mines for and purchases bauxite and other raw materials; refines bauxite into alumina; and sells alumina, as well as produces and sells refined alumina, gallium, and multi-form alumina bauxite. Its Primary Aluminum segment procures alumina and other raw materials, auxiliary materials, and electricity power; and produces and sells carbon, aluminum alloy, and other electrolytic aluminum products. The Energy segment mines for coal deposits; generates and sells electricity using thermal, wind, and solar power sources to regional power grid corporations; and manufactures power related equipment. Its Marketing segment trades in alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum fabrication products, other non-ferrous metal products, coal products, and raw and supplemental materials; and provides logistics and transport services. The Corporate and Other Operating segment provides research and development services; and engages in other aluminum-related business activities. The company is involved in the acquisition, manufacturing, and distribution of bauxite mines and limestone ore; engineering project; thermoelectric supply and investment management; and import and export activities, as well as manufacturing and distribution of anode and cathode carbon products. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) currently trades at ¥9.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.71, implying the stock looks roughly 63.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥30.67 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥9.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.80, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥4.28 (bear) to ¥7.13 (bull), the price of ¥9.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd reported revenue of 240B CNY in FY2025 versus 299B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 12.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +21.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 160B CNY (≈ $23.9B) · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8600 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at −39%, 601600 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.28Fair Value ¥5.71Bull ¥7.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4267 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+62.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+59.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.71% vs 48%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 13%
2025 sits 88% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Aluminum Corp of China Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.58× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.60× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)24· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)84· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aluminum Corp of China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601600
Frequently asked questions
Is Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.71 versus a price of ¥9.35, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601600?
Our model-based fair value for Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is ¥5.71 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.35.
What is the quality score of 601600?
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.71 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.28, optimistic scenario ¥7.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aluminum Corp of China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.71, about −39% upside versus a price of ¥9.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.28, optimistic scenario ¥7.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 244B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Aluminum Corp of China Ltd pay a dividend?
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aluminum Corp of China Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601600 use?
Our models discount Aluminum Corp of China Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aluminum Corp of China Ltd that is -7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies -7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (-7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.79 %: that much free cash flow Aluminum Corp of China Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aluminum Corp of China Ltd it is ¥5.71 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ¥9.35. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aluminum Corp of China Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 601600 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.35, fair value ¥5.71, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601600?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.71). For Aluminum Corp of China Ltd the two are ¥3.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aluminum Corp of China Ltd worth?
The market values Aluminum Corp of China Ltd at about 160B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.35; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601600?
Our models span a range for Aluminum Corp of China Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.28, base ¥5.71, optimistic ¥7.13 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ¥9.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601600?
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 601600?
The PEG ratio of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 1.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601600 from its 52-week high?
Aluminum Corp of China Ltd trades at ¥9.35, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥15.85 and 40% above the low of ¥6.66 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aluminum Corp of China Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aluminum Corp of China Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ¥9.35, calculated fair value ¥5.71 (−39%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601600 calculated?
We run Aluminum Corp of China Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aluminum Corp of China Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ¥9.35. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.71, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aluminum Corp of China Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The market capitalisation of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 160B CNY (≈ $23.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Earnings per share at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd are ¥0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The dividend yield of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 2.9% (payout 31.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The net margin of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
The operating margin of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Revenue at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600)?
Earnings per share at Aluminum Corp of China Ltd are growing +56.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (601600) carry?
The net debt of Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is 40.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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