Aluminum Corporation (601600) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 141B CNY

A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.65 – ¥15.70 · fair‑value band ¥3.30 – ¥5.51 · the ¥9.61 price screens above the ¥4.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Aluminum Corporation (601600) currently trades at ¥9.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.40, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Aluminum Corporation generated revenue of 244B CNY at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. Net debt stands at 40.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.30 (bear case) to ¥5.51 (bull case); at ¥9.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -54%, 601600 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥32.58) versus Asset-Based (¥3.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating.

Full company description

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating. The Alumina segment mines for and purchases bauxite and other raw materials; refines bauxite into alumina; and sells alumina, as well as produces and sells refined alumina, gallium, and multi-form alumina bauxite. Its Primary Aluminum segment procures alumina and other raw materials, auxiliary materials, and electricity power; and produces and sells carbon, aluminum alloy, and other electrolytic aluminum products. The Energy segment mines for coal deposits; generates and sells electricity using thermal, wind, and solar power sources to regional power grid corporations; and manufactures power related equipment. Its Marketing segment trades in alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum fabrication products, other non-ferrous metal products, coal products, and raw and supplemental materials; and provides logistics and transport services. The Corporate and Other Operating segment provides research and development services; and engages in other aluminum-related business activities. The company is involved in the acquisition, manufacturing, and distribution of bauxite mines and limestone ore; engineering project; thermoelectric supply and investment management; and import and export activities, as well as manufacturing and distribution of anode and cathode carbon products. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aluminum Corporation reported revenue of ¥240B in FY2025 versus ¥299B in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.7B in FY2025, compounding +21.8%/yr from FY2021.

601600 screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.