China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Hongqiao Group Ltd stock HK$30.21, price HK$19.44, upside +55.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.04 – HK$38.07 · fair‑value band HK$21.15 – HK$39.28 · the HK$19.44 price screens below the HK$30.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China, India, Europe, Malaysia, North America, the rest of Southeast Asia, and internationally.
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The company's products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum deep processing products, and alumina products; and aluminum fabrication products, aluminum alloy products, steam, and aluminum foils.
It is also involved in the development and production of decorative foil, household foil, heat-sealed foil, candy foil, food foil, double zero foil, and other products.
In addition, the company engages in research, development, mining, and sale of bauxite; financial leasing; and production and sale of electricity. China Hongqiao Group Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China.
China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) currently trades at HK$19.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$30.21, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$73.14 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$19.44 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$21.71, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$21.15 (bear) to HK$39.28 (bull), the price of HK$19.44 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
China Hongqiao Group Ltd reported revenue of 162B CNY in FY2025 versus 114B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 22.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$200B (≈ $25.6B) Large · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.89 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 27.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 55%, 1378 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$21.15Fair Value HK$30.21BullHK$39.28
Price HK$19.44 · Upside +55.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$50.07HK$90.59HK$183.9775
Growth DCFHK$48.73HK$93.59HK$161.0375
Residual IncomeHK$17.14HK$21.94HK$33.3975
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$50.07HK$90.59HK$183.9775
Owner EarningsHK$43.71HK$84.81HK$160.1772
5Y Revenue ExitHK$30.73HK$51.40HK$79.6971
5Y EBITDA ExitHK$41.10HK$74.24HK$117.4273
5Y P/E ExitHK$38.94HK$69.49HK$105.9869
10Y Revenue ExitHK$36.03HK$58.55HK$94.2365
10Y EBITDA ExitHK$43.68HK$75.57HK$127.2066
10Y P/E ExitHK$42.24HK$72.03HK$117.2162
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddHK$18.43HK$105.67HK$146.9563
Lynch FVHK$34.83HK$49.76HK$64.6961
PEG = 1.0HK$34.83HK$49.76HK$64.6957
EPVHK$29.82HK$34.34HK$38.2474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMHK$11.68HK$23.29HK$35.3067
DDM Multi-StageHK$11.68HK$20.12HK$24.5867
Multiples
P/E MultipleHK$34.55HK$46.07HK$57.5963
P/S MultipleHK$21.87HK$29.16HK$36.4558
P/B MultipleHK$9.20HK$12.26HK$15.3355
EV/EBITHK$42.03HK$56.76HK$71.4966
EV/EBITDAHK$35.73HK$48.35HK$60.9867
EV/RevenueHK$18.26HK$27.00HK$35.7553
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$0.1400HK$0.2100HK$0.270054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$48.73HK$93.59HK$161.0375
Rev-Margin DCFHK$30.73HK$51.03HK$79.1471
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeHK$17.14HK$21.94HK$33.3975
ROIC CompounderHK$35.05HK$48.25HK$66.0771
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EHK$40.16HK$57.38HK$74.5967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.99/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.1% vs 10.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 22%
2025 sits 104% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.8% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: China Hongqiao shows strength in solid reported margins and cash flow from aluminum operations, yet its main weakness remains the limited evidence of a durable moat beyond possible scale.
Main risk: Tighter Chinese emissions caps, national ETS expansion and EU CBAM could force costly upgrades, production curbs or export penalties that hit margins and volumes.
Bull case: By completing its shift to hydropower in Yunnan and securing green premiums the company could lower compliance costs and capture higher-value demand from low-carbon buyers.
Bear case: If carbon rules tighten faster than relocation and overseas supply surges the firm could face sustained margin pressure, output constraints and higher refinancing costs.
China Hongqiao has repurchased millions of its shares in late October, with the board noting that the current price deviates from the company's value. Its aluminum operations delivered strong profit growth in the first nine months, yet the shares remain far below their recent peak. Does the buyback program reflect a durable edge in costs and scale, or will external factors like raw material volatility limit further gains?
Compare China Hongqiao Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)27.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Hongqiao Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1378
Frequently asked questions
Is China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$30.21 versus a price of HK$19.44, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1378?
Our model-based fair value for China Hongqiao Group Ltd is HK$30.21 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$19.44.
What is the quality score of 1378?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$30.21 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$21.15, optimistic scenario HK$39.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Hongqiao Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$30.21, about +55% upside versus a price of HK$19.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$21.15, optimistic scenario HK$39.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 169B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does China Hongqiao Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd pays a dividend of HK$1.48 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.6%. The last ex-dividend date was May 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2018. The payout ratio is 54.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.25 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Hongqiao Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1378 use?
Our models discount China Hongqiao Group Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Hongqiao Group Ltd that is -11.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Hongqiao Group Ltd grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Hongqiao Group Ltd (-11.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.34 %: that much free cash flow China Hongqiao Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Hongqiao Group Ltd it is HK$30.21 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of HK$19.44. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Hongqiao Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 1378 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$19.44, fair value HK$30.21, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1378?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$19.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$30.21). For China Hongqiao Group Ltd the two are HK$10.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Hongqiao Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Hongqiao Group Ltd at about HK$200B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$19.44; our models calculate a fair value of HK$30.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1378?
Our models span a range for China Hongqiao Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$21.15, base HK$30.21, optimistic HK$39.28 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price HK$19.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1378?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$30.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 6.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Hongqiao Group Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 22.9%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1378 from its 52-week high?
China Hongqiao Group Ltd trades at HK$19.44, about 49% below its 52-week high of HK$38.07 and 8% above the low of HK$18.02 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$30.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Hongqiao Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, Hindalco Industries Limited, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Hongqiao Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price HK$19.44, calculated fair value HK$30.21 (+55%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1378 calculated?
We run China Hongqiao Group Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$30.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. China Hongqiao Group Ltd currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$19.44. Our model-based fair value is HK$30.21, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Hongqiao Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$21.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$21.15 to HK$39.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) come from?
Earnings per share at China Hongqiao Group Ltd grew +10.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −1.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Hongqiao Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The market capitalisation of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is HK$200B (≈ $25.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The dividend yield of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 7.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The net margin of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
The operating margin of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
Revenue at China Hongqiao Group Ltd is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378)?
Earnings per share at China Hongqiao Group Ltd are growing +21.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Hongqiao Group Ltd (1378) carry?
The net debt of China Hongqiao Group Ltd is 18.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026