1378 (1378) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · Market cap HK$196B

1 1378 1378 · HK

PriceHK$20.06

Fair ValueHK$45.23

Upside+125.5%

Quality56/100

Evidence: Medium Range HK$33.92 – HK$73.23

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −28.4% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$15.05 – HK$38.07 · fair‑value band HK$33.92 – HK$73.23 · the HK$20.06 price screens below the HK$45.23 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

1378 (1378) currently trades at HK$20.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$45.23 — implying the stock looks roughly 125.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium) — always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, 1378 generated revenue of HK$162B at a net margin of 13.9%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at HK$18.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$162B

Revenue growth (YoY) -1.5%

Net margin 13.9%

Return on equity 18.6%

Free cash flow HK$27.8B FY2025

P/E ratio 7.3

More key figures

Operating margin 21.9%

EPS (TTM) HK$1.31

Dividend yield 7.4%

EPS growth (YoY) -23.1%

Net debt HK$18.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

1378 reported revenue of HK$162B in FY2025 versus HK$114B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$22.6B in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +9.1%/yr

FY21 HK$114B

FY22 HK$132B

FY23 HK$134B

FY24 HK$156B

FY25 HK$162B

Net income +8.9%/yr

FY21 HK$16.1B

FY22 HK$8.7B

FY23 HK$11.5B

FY24 HK$22.4B

FY25 HK$22.6B

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Similar stocks

6 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
China Hongqiao Group CHHQY	$29.13	$54.65	+88%
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379	¥18.63	¥41.14	+121%
Aluminum Corporation 601600	¥9.86	¥17.01	+73%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO	₹1,093	₹1,096	+0%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY	kr 110.00	kr 50.38	-54%
Alcoa Corporation AA	$78.02	$36.04	-54%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 1378 (1378) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$45.23 versus a price of HK$20.06 — about +125% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 1378?

Our model-based fair value for 1378 is HK$45.23 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$20.06.

What is the quality score of 1378?

1378 has a Quality Score of 56/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 1378 (1378)?

1378 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$162B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1378?

The net profit margin of 1378 is about 13.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 1378 pay a dividend?

1378 currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.39% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.