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Yunnan Aluminium Co (000807) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 87.9B CNY

YA Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 · SHE
Price¥26.66
Fair Value¥29.68
Upside+11.3%
Quality74/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.76% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Wide moat 82/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥22.26 – ¥50.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price +19.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 11% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (¥22.26 to ¥50.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from ¥22.26 (bear) to ¥50.11 (bull), base ¥29.68. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 74/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥36.47 ¥8.22 Fair Value ¥29.68 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.22 – ¥36.47 · fair‑value band ¥22.26 – ¥50.11 · the ¥26.66 price screens below the ¥29.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Yunnan Aluminium Co (000807) currently trades at ¥26.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥29.68, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yunnan Aluminium Co generated revenue of 62.0B CNY at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥22.26 (bear case) to ¥50.11 (bull case); at ¥26.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 11%, 000807 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥33.27 ¥66.91 ¥120.76 80
Residual Income ¥11.55 ¥15.32 ¥59.78 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥27.86 ¥50.08 ¥81.43 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥34.25 ¥61.46 ¥131.13 38
Owner Earnings ¥31.80 ¥64.41 ¥127.92 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥27.86 ¥51.01 ¥84.04 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥31.37 ¥58.88 ¥95.46 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥28.77 ¥53.04 ¥82.62 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥28.80 ¥52.47 ¥92.47 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥32.10 ¥58.53 ¥102.92 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥30.31 ¥54.04 ¥91.24 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥11.87 ¥71.46 ¥99.61 54
Lynch FV ¥20.39 ¥29.12 ¥37.86 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥20.39 ¥29.12 ¥37.86 46
EPV ¥22.11 ¥25.55 ¥28.57 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥4.76 ¥9.89 ¥15.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.76 ¥8.34 ¥10.38 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥26.19 ¥34.92 ¥43.65 63
P/S Multiple ¥22.26 ¥29.68 ¥37.10 58
P/B Multiple ¥20.78 ¥27.71 ¥34.64 55
EV/EBIT ¥35.82 ¥47.28 ¥58.74 53
EV/EBITDA ¥31.49 ¥41.51 ¥51.54 54
EV/Revenue ¥24.61 ¥34.54 ¥44.48 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.62 ¥6.19 ¥9.24 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥33.27 ¥66.91 ¥120.76 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥27.86 ¥50.08 ¥81.43 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥11.55 ¥15.32 ¥59.78 76
ROIC Compounder ¥26.16 ¥35.96 ¥49.18 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥28.94 ¥41.34 ¥53.74 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥54.04) versus Asset-Based (¥6.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 62.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.7%
Net margin 14.0%
Return on equity 28.5%
Free cash flow 7.9B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 10.1
More key figures
Operating margin 29.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.51
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +269%
Net cash 2.5B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. produces and sells aluminum primarily in China. It operates through three segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, and Other.

Full company description

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. produces and sells aluminum primarily in China. It operates through three segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, and Other. The company offers cast aluminum alloy ingots; wrought aluminum and aluminum alloy round ingots; wrought aluminum and aluminum alloy flat castings; aluminum home furnishing; aluminum and aluminum alloy welding materials; aluminum alloy welding wires; and electrician round aluminum rod. It also provides aluminum ingots/refined aluminum ingots for remelting, metallurgical grade alumina, and carbon for aluminum. The company's products are used in electronics, aerospace, transportation, optical, chemical metallurgical, automobile lightweighting, rail transportation, shipbuilding, automotive, architectural decoration, 3C electronics, packaging and printing, power, communications, and machinery industries, as well as in the production of corundum, ceramics, and refractory materials. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Kunming, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yunnan Aluminium Co reported revenue of ¥59.9B in FY2025 versus ¥41.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.1B in FY2025, compounding +16.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
59.9B CNY
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+17.0%
Revenue +9.4%/yr
FY21 ¥41.8B
FY22 ¥48.5B
FY23 ¥42.7B
FY24 ¥54.5B
FY25 ¥59.9B
Net income +16.1%/yr
FY21 ¥3.3B
FY22 ¥4.6B
FY23 ¥4.0B
FY24 ¥4.4B
FY25 ¥6.1B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yunnan Aluminium Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000807

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Return on assets 17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.75× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 48 · sector 17
FUTURE 69 · sector 25
PAST 100 · sector 32
HEALTH 97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 55 · sector 35

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥18.54 ¥26.70 +44%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$24.54 HK$45.53 +86%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹955.80 ₹1,026 +7%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥8.11 ¥12.58 +55%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 84.96 kr 58.10 -32%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 8.02 MYR 3.88 MYR -52%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$70.60 A$49.53 -30%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥25.51 ¥30.28 +19%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥11.99 ¥21.86 +82%
Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 ¥4.72 ¥7.01 +49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yunnan Aluminium Co (000807) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥29.68 versus a price of ¥26.66, about +11% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000807?
Our model-based fair value for Yunnan Aluminium Co is ¥29.68 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥26.66.
What is the quality score of 000807?
Yunnan Aluminium Co has a Quality Score of 74/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yunnan Aluminium Co (000807)?
Yunnan Aluminium Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 62.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000807?
The net profit margin of Yunnan Aluminium Co is about 14.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yunnan Aluminium Co pay a dividend?
Yunnan Aluminium Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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