Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hindalco Industries Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹305.91 – ₹1,144 · fair‑value band ₹751.98 – ₹1,282 · the ₹986.50 price screens below the ₹1,026 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments.
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Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments. The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products. It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions. In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations. Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands. The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries. Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) currently trades at ₹986.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,026, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,074 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹986.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹412.24, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹751.98 (bear) to ₹1,282 (bull), the price of ₹986.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hindalco Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹2.7T in FY2026 versus ₹1.9T in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹134B in FY2026, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹2.2T (≈ $22.8B) · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) ₹60.20 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 62% fair-value upside, at 4%, HINDALCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹751.98Fair Value ₹1,026Bull ₹1,282
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹26.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 25%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Hindalco Industries Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,026 versus a price of ₹986.50, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HINDALCO?
Our model-based fair value for Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹1,026 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹986.50.
What is the quality score of HINDALCO?
Hindalco Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,026 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹751.98, optimistic scenario ₹1,282. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hindalco Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,026, about +4% upside versus a price of ₹986.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ₹751.98, optimistic scenario ₹1,282. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Hindalco Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Hindalco Industries Limited pay a dividend?
Hindalco Industries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hindalco Industries Limited it is ₹1,026 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ₹986.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hindalco Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, HINDALCO trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹986.50, fair value ₹1,026, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HINDALCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹986.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,026). For Hindalco Industries Limited the two are ₹39.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hindalco Industries Limited worth?
The market values Hindalco Industries Limited at about ₹2.2T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ₹986.50; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,026 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HINDALCO?
Our models span a range for Hindalco Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹751.98, base ₹1,026, optimistic ₹1,282 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ₹986.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HINDALCO?
Hindalco Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,026 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hindalco Industries Limited (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HINDALCO from its 52-week high?
Hindalco Industries Limited trades at ₹986.50, about 16% below its 52-week high of ₹1,176 and 56% above the low of ₹630.38 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,026 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hindalco Industries Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Aluminum Corporation, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hindalco Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ₹986.50, calculated fair value ₹1,026 (+4%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HINDALCO calculated?
We run Hindalco Industries Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,026, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hindalco Industries Limited currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ₹986.50. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,026, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hindalco Industries Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited grew +27.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hindalco Industries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The market capitalisation of Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹2.2T (≈ $22.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hindalco Industries Limited is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited are ₹60.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The dividend yield of Hindalco Industries Limited is 0.5% (payout 8.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The net margin of Hindalco Industries Limited is 4.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hindalco Industries Limited is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hindalco Industries Limited is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
The operating margin of Hindalco Industries Limited is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Revenue at Hindalco Industries Limited is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?
Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited are growing −50.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) generate?
The free cash flow of Hindalco Industries Limited is −₹234B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) carry?
The net debt of Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹844B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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