Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · IN · Market cap ₹2.1T

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• Our model range runs from ₹751.98 (bear) to ₹1,282 (bull), base ₹1,026. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹305.91 – ₹1,144 · fair‑value band ₹751.98 – ₹1,282 · the ₹1,027 price screens above the ₹1,026 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) currently trades at ₹1,027, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,026, implying the stock looks roughly 0.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hindalco Industries Limited generated revenue of ₹2.7T at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at ₹844B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹751.98 (bear case) to ₹1,282 (bull case); at ₹1,027, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 0%, HINDALCO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (₹1,206) versus Dividend Discount (₹86.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments.

Full company description

Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments. The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products. It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions. In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations. Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands. The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries. Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Hindalco Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹2.7T in FY2026 versus ₹1.9T in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹134B in FY2026, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2022.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• $166+ Billion Aluminum Extrusion Market Outlook, 2030 - Featuring Analysis of Hindalco Industries, Alcoa Corporation, Aluminium Corporation Yahoo Finance · Jun 29, 2026
• India's Hindalco sees up to $1.6 billion impact from fire at unit's New York plant Sg · Feb 11, 2026

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.