Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €22.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +7.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€110.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €88.77 – €275.93 · fair‑value band €66.00 – €110.00 · the €124.30 price screens above the €88.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG) currently trades at €124.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €88.00, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, generated revenue of €17.8B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at €3.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €66.00 (bear case) to €110.00 (bull case); at €124.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 69% fair-value upside, at -29%, HLAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€131.93) versus Earnings-Based (€45.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments.
Full company description
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments. The company's vessel and container fleets are used for transporting dry and special cargo, dangerous goods, coffee, and reefer cargo. It also offers bilateral EDI, a directly connected electronic data interchange; application programming interface (API) portals for offers, contract specifications, commercial schedules, track and trace, live reefer, and live positions; WAVE BL service for the digital release of original bills of lading; mobile app and security information services; and INTTRA, Infor Nexus, and CargoSmart portals for the management of customers' supply chain data and connection to carriers through one interface. In addition, the company provides inland container transportation services through truck, rail, and barge; hinterland transport from door to door; and logistics services, as well as operates container terminals. As of December 31, 2025, its fleet consisted of 301 container vessels with a transport capacity of 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The company was formerly known as Hapag-Lloyd Holding AG and changed its name to Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft in August 2013. Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, reported revenue of €18.6B in FY2025 versus €22.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was €910M in FY2025, compounding −43.7%/yr from FY2021.
HLAG screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.30 | ¥5.58 | +69% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.07 | ¥16.97 | +110% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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