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Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €22.5B

HL Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG · XETRA
Price€124.30
Fair Value€88.00
Upside-29.2%
Quality50/100
Watch Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.34% dividend yield
Trails peers (1/15)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: High Range €66.00 – €110.00 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Share price +7.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€110.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€275.93 €88.77 Fair Value €88.00 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €88.77 – €275.93 · fair‑value band €66.00 – €110.00 · the €124.30 price screens above the €88.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG) currently trades at €124.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €88.00, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, generated revenue of €17.8B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at €3.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €66.00 (bear case) to €110.00 (bull case); at €124.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 69% fair-value upside, at -29%, HLAG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €73.19 €116.35 €185.63 80
Residual Income €79.23 €81.21 €79.14 76
Rev-Margin DCF €59.20 €92.09 €132.08 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €72.74 €117.25 €189.20 38
Owner Earnings €121.39 €198.11 €322.14 31
5Y Revenue Exit €59.20 €92.16 €134.94 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €133.69 €237.59 €364.01 41
5Y P/E Exit €74.68 €122.38 €174.31 38
10Y Revenue Exit €61.79 €93.76 €138.58 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €111.64 €197.11 €320.58 37
10Y P/E Exit €73.38 €115.24 €169.86 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €35.20 €132.81 €179.71 54
Lynch FV €32.14 €45.91 €59.69 50
PEG = 1.0 €32.14 €45.91 €59.69 46
EPV €51.08 €58.68 €65.32 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €75.25 €156.45 €248.20 70
DDM Multi-Stage €75.25 €131.93 €164.20 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €77.65 €103.53 €129.41 63
P/S Multiple €66.00 €88.00 €110.00 58
P/B Multiple €66.00 €88.00 €110.00 55
EV/EBIT €77.29 €101.21 €125.14 53
EV/EBITDA €181.52 €240.20 €298.87 54
EV/Revenue €53.89 €74.63 €95.36 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €51.01 €68.35 €102.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €73.19 €116.35 €185.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF €59.20 €92.09 €132.08 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €79.23 €81.21 €79.14 76
ROIC Compounder €51.08 €58.68 €65.32 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €57.27 €81.82 €106.36 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€131.93) versus Earnings-Based (€45.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €17.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) -16.8%
Net margin 1.4%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow €985M FY2025
P/E ratio 78.2
More key figures
Operating margin -1.4%
EPS (TTM) €1.42
Dividend yield 2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -89.3%
Net debt €3.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments.

Full company description

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a liner shipping company in Germany, the United States, Asia, the rest of Europe, the Pacific, the Atlantic, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Liner Shipping; and Terminal & Infrastructure segments. The company's vessel and container fleets are used for transporting dry and special cargo, dangerous goods, coffee, and reefer cargo. It also offers bilateral EDI, a directly connected electronic data interchange; application programming interface (API) portals for offers, contract specifications, commercial schedules, track and trace, live reefer, and live positions; WAVE BL service for the digital release of original bills of lading; mobile app and security information services; and INTTRA, Infor Nexus, and CargoSmart portals for the management of customers' supply chain data and connection to carriers through one interface. In addition, the company provides inland container transportation services through truck, rail, and barge; hinterland transport from door to door; and logistics services, as well as operates container terminals. As of December 31, 2025, its fleet consisted of 301 container vessels with a transport capacity of 2.4 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The company was formerly known as Hapag-Lloyd Holding AG and changed its name to Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft in August 2013. Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, reported revenue of €18.6B in FY2025 versus €22.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was €910M in FY2025, compounding −43.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€18.6B
Latest YoY
−2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−18.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+6.8%
Revenue −4.4%/yr
FY21 €22.3B
FY22 €34.5B
FY23 €17.9B
FY24 €19.1B
FY25 €18.6B
Net income −43.7%/yr
FY21 €9.1B
FY22 €17.0B
FY23 €2.9B
FY24 €2.4B
FY25 €910M

HLAG screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLAG

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 227 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −29% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -17% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 90.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.46× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 26.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 20.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.63× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 5 · sector 26
HEALTH 94 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 47 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,828 ₹1,041 -43%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,520 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥13.98 ¥40.37 +189%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.57 +27%
HMM Co 011200 20,050 KRW 33,855 KRW +69%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.30 ¥5.58 +69%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.07 ¥16.97 +110%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹330.05 ₹126.31 -62%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 80.70 TWD 212.79 TWD +164%
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI kr 137.70 kr 50.56 -63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €88.00 versus a price of €124.30, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLAG?
Our model-based fair value for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, is €88.00 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €124.30.
What is the quality score of HLAG?
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, has a Quality Score of 50/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, (HLAG)?
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €17.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HLAG?
The net profit margin of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, pay a dividend?
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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