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Yuexiu Property Company (0123) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$13.4B

YP Yuexiu Property Company 0123 · HK
PriceHK$3.60
Fair ValueHK$9.05
Upside+151.4%
Quality42/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
4.48% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 14/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$9.05 – HK$9.05 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$8.35 to HK$9.05 (+8.4%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +2.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 151% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$10.70 HK$3.26 Fair Value HK$9.05 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.26 – HK$10.70 · the HK$3.60 price screens below the HK$9.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Yuexiu Property Company (0123) currently trades at HK$3.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.05, implying the stock looks roughly 151.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yuexiu Property Company generated revenue of HK$86.5B at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue declined 23.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.7%. Net debt stands at HK$60.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 151%, 0123 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$38.55 HK$86.67 HK$162.86 80
Residual Income HK$9.10 HK$8.40 HK$5.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.60 HK$19.65 HK$32.22 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$39.87 HK$80.67 HK$183.60 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$10.60 HK$19.32 HK$30.16 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$12.92 HK$24.47 HK$38.56 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$19.34 HK$31.73 HK$49.58 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.15 HK$35.67 HK$57.15 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.35 HK$2.81 HK$4.46 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.35 HK$2.37 HK$2.95 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$0.1700 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1700 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.84 HK$6.46 HK$10.07 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.88 HK$5.17 HK$8.47 54
EV/Revenue — HK$0.5400 HK$3.10 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$6.81 HK$9.13 HK$13.62 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$38.55 HK$86.67 HK$162.86 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$10.60 HK$19.65 HK$32.22 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.10 HK$8.40 HK$5.59 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$31.73) versus Multiples (HK$0.5400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$86.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) -23.8%
Net margin 0.1%
Return on equity 1.7%
Free cash flow HK$13.5B FY2025
P/E ratio 167.0
More key figures
Operating margin -1.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3400
Dividend yield 4.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -25.2%
Net debt HK$60.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Yuexiu Property Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, sells, invests, and manages properties primarily in Mainland China and Hong Kong. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Management, Property Investment, and Other. The company develops residential and commercial properties.

Full company description

Yuexiu Property Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, sells, invests, and manages properties primarily in Mainland China and Hong Kong. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Management, Property Investment, and Other. The company develops residential and commercial properties. It also offers property rental and property management services; property leasing; real estate agency and decoration services; elderly care products and services; and education services, as well as engages in manufacturing of computers, communication and other electronic equipment. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yuexiu Property Company reported revenue of HK$86.5B in FY2025 versus HK$57.4B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$55.1M in FY2025, compounding −64.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$86.5B
Latest YoY
+0.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Revenue +10.8%/yr
FY21 HK$57.4B
FY22 HK$72.4B
FY23 HK$80.2B
FY24 HK$86.4B
FY25 HK$86.5B
Net income −64.8%/yr
FY21 HK$3.6B
FY22 HK$4.0B
FY23 HK$3.2B
FY24 HK$1.0B
FY25 HK$55.1M

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Yuexiu Property Company · Fair Value
HK$9.05 +151%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yuexiu Property Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0123

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside +151% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Below median
Revenue growth -24% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.42× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 167.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 16.5× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 48
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 7 · sector 10
HEALTH 29 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 90 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,100 IDR 6,239 IDR +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yuexiu Property Company (0123) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.05 versus a price of HK$3.60, about +151% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0123?
Our model-based fair value for Yuexiu Property Company is HK$9.05 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$3.60.
What is the quality score of 0123?
Yuexiu Property Company has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yuexiu Property Company (0123)?
Yuexiu Property Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$86.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0123?
The net profit margin of Yuexiu Property Company is about 0.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yuexiu Property Company pay a dividend?
Yuexiu Property Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.48% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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