HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of HDC Holdings Co Ltd KRW 76,350, price KRW 25,450, upside +200.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,751 KRW – 29,675 KRW · fair‑value band 52,389 KRW – 103,475 KRW · the 25,450 KRW price screens below the 76,350 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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HDC HOLDINGS CO.,Ltd engages in real estate development and construction activities in South Korea. Its portfolio includes high-rise buildings, roads, bridges, ports, plants, small and medium-sized houses, commercial districts and parking lot sites, hotels, and shopping malls, as well as operates a duty-free shop.
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HDC HOLDINGS CO.,Ltd engages in real estate development and construction activities in South Korea. Its portfolio includes high-rise buildings, roads, bridges, ports, plants, small and medium-sized houses, commercial districts and parking lot sites, hotels, and shopping malls, as well as operates a duty-free shop. The company also offers facility management services, such as building management, cleaning, parking/security, and general affairs/clerical support; real estate asset management service comprising operation, leasing, building management, and management consulting services. In addition, it engages in interior, remodeling, and landscaping services; and operates special care facility for the elderly people. Further, the company is involved in the petrochemical business; production of precast concrete; manufacture of pianos; and operation of the professional football club. HDC HOLDINGS CO.,Ltd was founded in 1976 and is based in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) currently trades at 25,450 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 76,350 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 127,683 KRW per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the 25,450 KRW price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 39,534 KRW, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 52,389 KRW (bear) to 103,475 KRW (bull), the price of 25,450 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
HDC Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.6T KRW in FY2025 versus 4.8T KRW in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 301B KRW in FY2025, compounding +27.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3T KRW (≈ $926M) · P/S ratio 0.18 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 14.4% · Revenue (TTM) 6.3T KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 200%, 012630 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 52,389 KRWFair Value 76,350 KRWBull 103,475 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
2025 sits 138% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 840 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.68× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HDC Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/012630
Frequently asked questions
Is HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 76,350 KRW versus a price of 25,450 KRW, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 012630?
Our model-based fair value for HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 76,350 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25,450 KRW.
What is the quality score of 012630?
HDC Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 76,350 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 52,389 KRW, optimistic scenario 103,475 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HDC Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 76,350 KRW, about +200% upside versus a price of 25,450 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 52,389 KRW, optimistic scenario 103,475 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
HDC Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.3T KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HDC Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
HDC Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HDC Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 012630 use?
Our models discount HDC Holdings Co Ltd at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HDC Holdings Co Ltd that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HDC Holdings Co Ltd grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HDC Holdings Co Ltd (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.57 %: that much free cash flow HDC Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HDC Holdings Co Ltd it is 76,350 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 25,450 KRW. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HDC Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 012630 trades below its calculated fair value: price 25,450 KRW, fair value 76,350 KRW, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 012630?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25,450 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (76,350 KRW). For HDC Holdings Co Ltd the two are 50,900 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HDC Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values HDC Holdings Co Ltd at about 1.3T KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 25,450 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 76,350 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 012630?
Our models span a range for HDC Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario 52,389 KRW, base 76,350 KRW, optimistic 103,475 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 25,450 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
Balance-sheet figures for HDC Holdings Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 012630 from its 52-week high?
HDC Holdings Co Ltd trades at 25,450 KRW, about 14% below its 52-week high of 29,675 KRW and 62% above the low of 15,738 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 76,350 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HDC Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HDC Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 25,450 KRW, calculated fair value 76,350 KRW (+200%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 012630 calculated?
We run HDC Holdings Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 76,350 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. HDC Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 25,450 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 76,350 KRW, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HDC Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (52,389 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (52,389 KRW to 103,475 KRW) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HDC Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The market capitalisation of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 1.3T KRW (≈ $926M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 0.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The dividend yield of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The net margin of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
The operating margin of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
Revenue at HDC Holdings Co Ltd is growing −19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630)?
Earnings per share at HDC Holdings Co Ltd are growing −1.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HDC Holdings Co Ltd (012630) carry?
The net debt of HDC Holdings Co Ltd is 2.8T KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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