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Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd HK$13.34, price HK$5.14, upside +159.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN BMG8086V1467

SI Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd

0152 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$13.34 · Strongly undervalued (+160%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·8.95% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$9.81 HK$3.67 Fair Value HK$13.34 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.67 – HK$9.81 · fair‑value band HK$10.84 – HK$19.08 · the HK$5.14 price screens below the HK$13.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, constructs, and operates logistics infrastructure facilities primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Toll Roads and General Environmental Protection Business and Logistic Business segments.

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Shenzhen International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, constructs, and operates logistics infrastructure facilities primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Toll Roads and General Environmental Protection Business and Logistic Business segments. The Toll roads and General Environmental Protection Business segment develops, operates, and manages toll highways. This segment also engages in the sale of wind turbine equipment; kitchen waste disposal projects construction; and operation and sale of wind power stations. The Logistic Business segment constructs, operates, and manages logistics centers and integrated logistics hubs; and provides third-party logistics services, logistics information services, financial services; port and related services; and logistics park transformation and upgrading services. It also operates two general bulk cargo terminals and depots in Nanjing Xiba Port that provide various services, such as loading and unloading, lightering, train loading and unloading, and warehousing. In addition, the company provides electronic information exchange, transmission, and value-added information-sharing services; supply chain management services; project investment and enterprise management consulting services; and real estate development and investment management services, as well as construction, operation, and management of expressways. Further, it engages in logistics and transportation ancillary services; auxiliary activities of railway transportation; cargo transportation and warehousing services; and research and development, production, and sales of wind power generation systems, as well as invests in and operates wind farms, and operates as freight forwarder and container cargo transport agent. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) currently trades at HK$5.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.34, implying the stock looks roughly 61.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$21.71 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$5.14 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.99, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$10.84 (bear) to HK$19.08 (bull), the price of HK$5.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$16.3B in FY2025 versus HK$18.5B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.2B in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$12.6B (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 5.8 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4109 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin 13.8% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 160%, 0152 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$10.84 Fair Value HK$13.34 Bull HK$19.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$11.01 HK$11.33 HK$11.05 76
Gordon GGM HK$6.56 HK$11.82 HK$16.27 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.56 HK$10.80 HK$12.63 67
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.24 HK$36.50 HK$50.81 63
Lynch FV HK$10.34 HK$14.77 HK$19.20 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$10.34 HK$14.77 HK$19.20 57
EPV HK$0.4200 HK$1.99 HK$3.31 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.56 HK$11.82 HK$16.27 68
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.56 HK$10.80 HK$12.63 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$14.45 HK$19.27 HK$24.09 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.00 HK$13.34 HK$16.67 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.70 HK$15.60 HK$19.50 55
EV/EBIT HK$15.36 HK$24.20 HK$33.04 64
EV/EBITDA HK$23.08 HK$34.49 HK$45.90 66
EV/Revenue n/a HK$0.8400 HK$4.44 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.26 HK$9.73 HK$14.52 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$11.01 HK$11.33 HK$11.05 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.4200 HK$1.99 HK$3.31 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.20 HK$21.71 HK$28.22 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 31%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 48% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.03× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 10
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)48 · sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 77

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Transurban Group TCL A$13.20 A$4.00 −70%
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.80 ¥13.02 +33%
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥12.58 ¥14.47 +15%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.03 ¥7.88 −21%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥12.53 ¥13.78 +10%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥15.43 ¥16.97 +10%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.04 ¥9.51 +18%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹18.03 ₹19.95 +11%
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥6.01 ¥6.61 +10%
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹156.44 ₹44.34 −72%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0152

Frequently asked questions

Is Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.34 versus a price of HK$5.14, about +160% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0152?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is HK$13.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.14.
What is the quality score of 0152?
Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$10.84, optimistic scenario HK$19.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.34, about +160% upside versus a price of HK$5.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$10.84, optimistic scenario HK$19.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$16.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd it is HK$13.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$5.14. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0152 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.14, fair value HK$13.34, a gap of about +160% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0152?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.34). For Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$8.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd at about HK$12.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.14; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0152?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$10.84, base HK$13.34, optimistic HK$19.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$5.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0152?
Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0152 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$5.14, about 41% below its 52-week high of HK$8.70 and 2% above the low of HK$5.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$5.14, calculated fair value HK$13.34 (+160%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0152 calculated?
We run Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd currently trades 160 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$5.14. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.34, about +160% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$10.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd grew −2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is HK$12.6B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd are HK$0.4109 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 8.9% (payout 112%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The net margin of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 13.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is 48.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Revenue at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd are growing −21.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is −HK$5.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd (0152) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen International Holdings Ltd is HK$61.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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