Snowflake Inc (SNOW) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $95.6B
Snowflake Inc
SNOW · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $16.65 to $34.04 (+104.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($44.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($23.90 to $44.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.56 – $401.89 · fair‑value band $23.90 – $44.17 · the $318.00 price screens above the $34.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Snowflake Inc (SNOW) currently trades at $318.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.04, implying the stock looks roughly 89.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Snowflake Inc generated revenue of $5.0B at a net margin of -23.8%. Revenue grew 33.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -54.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $87.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.90 (bear case) to $44.17 (bull case); at $318.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 169% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -89%, SNOW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($82.10) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company's platform includes artificial intelligence (AI) Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data applications, and share data and data …
Full company description
Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company's platform includes artificial intelligence (AI) Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data applications, and share data and data products, as well as applies AI for solving business problems. It serves financial services, advertising, media and entertainment, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, technology, telecom, travel and hospitality, and government and defense industries, as well as the public sector. the company has a collaboration with OpenAI, L.L.C. for the development of AI solutions for joint enterprise customers that deliver tangible return on investment. The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Menlo Park, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Snowflake Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound +40.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3B in FY2026.
SNOW screens 89% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Snowflake (SNOW) Unveils Cortex AI Gateway For Trusted Enterprise AI Agents
- Snowflake Trades at a Premium Valuation: Hold or Fold the Stock?
- Asana, Snowflake, Atlassian, Guidewire Software, and Adobe Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- phData and Snowflake Expand Strategic Collaboration to Help Enterprises Put AI Into Production
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥223.50 | ¥67.52 | -70% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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