Tsingtao Brew (0168) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tsingtao Brew HK$70.98, price HK$39.78, upside +78.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Tsingtao Brew
0168 · HKClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
What runs behind every stock
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$36.97 – HK$72.14 · fair‑value band HK$46.84 – HK$95.12 · the HK$39.78 price screens below the HK$70.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.
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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tsingtao Brew (0168) currently trades at HK$39.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$70.98, implying the stock looks roughly 44.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$62.67 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$39.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.06, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$46.84 (bear) to HK$95.12 (bull), the price of HK$39.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Tsingtao Brew reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$58.7B (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.65 · EPS (TTM) HK$3.43 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 15.1% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 78%, 0168 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Tsingtao Brew with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.30 | €60.93 | −11% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €71.20 | €69.00 | −3% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $119.72 | $54.74 | −54% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $116.57 | $182.94 | +57% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €66.75 | €63.85 | −4% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.10 | HK$3.89 | −36% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$18.61 | HK$25.47 | +37% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP | $36.88 | $76.21 | +107% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥11.04 | ¥11.10 | +1% |
| United Breweries Limited UBL | ₹1,242 | ₹141.82 | −89% |
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