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Tsingtao Brewery Company (0168) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$58.7B

TB Tsingtao Brewery Company 0168 · HK
PriceHK$45.02
Fair ValueHK$78.86
Upside+75.2%
Quality64/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.28% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 62/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$51.31 – HK$99.99 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 36 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from HK$157.32 to HK$78.86 (−49.9%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 75% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$51.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$51.31 to HK$99.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$72.14 HK$36.97 Fair Value HK$78.86 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$36.97 – HK$72.14 · fair‑value band HK$51.31 – HK$99.99 · the HK$45.02 price screens below the HK$78.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Tsingtao Brewery Company (0168) currently trades at HK$45.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$78.86, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tsingtao Brewery Company generated revenue of HK$32.3B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$12.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$51.31 (bear case) to HK$99.99 (bull case); at HK$45.02, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 75%, 0168 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$33.75 HK$46.25 HK$64.46 80
Residual Income HK$22.25 HK$27.52 HK$55.37 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$31.98 HK$45.92 HK$62.30 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$33.44 HK$47.77 HK$70.13 38
Owner Earnings HK$39.53 HK$57.49 HK$85.53 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$31.98 HK$45.96 HK$63.94 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.11 HK$69.03 HK$98.59 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$48.00 HK$76.43 HK$106.85 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$31.57 HK$44.56 HK$62.33 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.06 HK$60.73 HK$89.20 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$42.56 HK$65.91 HK$95.60 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$22.28 HK$75.02 HK$100.53 54
Lynch FV HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.77 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.77 46
EPV HK$33.83 HK$37.89 HK$41.45 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$19.68 HK$40.91 HK$64.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$19.68 HK$33.74 HK$42.94 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$51.60 HK$68.80 HK$86.00 63
P/S Multiple HK$25.96 HK$34.62 HK$43.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$41.77 HK$55.69 HK$69.62 55
EV/EBIT HK$56.42 HK$72.08 HK$87.74 53
EV/EBITDA HK$54.41 HK$69.41 HK$84.40 54
EV/Revenue HK$32.15 HK$41.88 HK$51.62 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$11.24 HK$15.06 HK$22.48 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$33.75 HK$46.25 HK$64.46 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$31.98 HK$45.92 HK$62.30 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$22.25 HK$27.52 HK$55.37 76
ROIC Compounder HK$35.81 HK$43.16 HK$51.94 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$43.87 HK$62.67 HK$81.48 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$62.67) versus Asset-Based (HK$15.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$32.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.5%
Net margin 14.5%
Return on equity 14.8%
Free cash flow HK$2.8B FY2025
P/E ratio 10.9
More key figures
Operating margin 22.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$3.43
Dividend yield 5.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.2%
Net cash HK$12.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.

Full company description

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tsingtao Brewery Company reported revenue of HK$29.5B in FY2025 versus HK$30.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$29.5B
Latest YoY
−8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (35Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Revenue −0.5%/yr
FY21 HK$30.2B
FY22 HK$32.2B
FY23 HK$33.9B
FY24 HK$32.1B
FY25 HK$29.5B
Net income +9.1%/yr
FY21 HK$3.2B
FY22 HK$3.7B
FY23 HK$4.3B
FY24 HK$4.3B
FY25 HK$4.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.5 pp

of which total revenue +1.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin +10.7 pp
Tax rate +1.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Tsingtao Brewery Company · Fair Value
HK$78.86 +75%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsingtao Brewery Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0168

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Above median
Fair Value upside +75% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.91× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 5.78× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 3
PAST 59 · sector 36
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI €73.62 €41.60 -43%
Ambev S.A ABEV 14,120 ARS 6,060 ARS -57%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD 222.91 MXN 201.74 MXN -9%
Heineken N.V HEIA €77.24 €65.06 -16%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $135.72 $177.43 +31%
Carlsberg A/S CARLA kr 1,125 kr 607.30 -46%
Heineken Holding HEIO €71.20 €72.67 +2%
Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 HK$6.58 HK$6.05 -8%
Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA C$63.10 C$74.42 +18%
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥11.94 ¥12.51 +5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tsingtao Brewery Company (0168) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$78.86 versus a price of HK$45.02, about +75% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0168?
Our model-based fair value for Tsingtao Brewery Company is HK$78.86 (as of Jul 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$45.02.
What is the quality score of 0168?
Tsingtao Brewery Company has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tsingtao Brewery Company (0168)?
Tsingtao Brewery Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$32.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0168?
The net profit margin of Tsingtao Brewery Company is about 14.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tsingtao Brewery Company pay a dividend?
Tsingtao Brewery Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.28% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 5, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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