Geely Automobile Holdings (0175) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$199B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$26.57 to HK$15.56 (−41.5%) since Jul 6, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$11.67 to HK$50.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.85 – HK$25.99 · fair‑value band HK$11.67 – HK$50.51 · the HK$18.56 price screens above the HK$15.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Geely Automobile Holdings (0175) currently trades at HK$18.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.56, implying the stock looks roughly 16.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Geely Automobile Holdings generated revenue of HK$356B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$45.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$11.67 (bear case) to HK$50.51 (bull case); at HK$18.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -16%, 0175 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$76.18) versus Dividend Discount (HK$4.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of passenger vehicles; automobile parts; and related automobile components, including electric powertrain and battery systems, as well as provides related after-sales and technical services. It also offers electric mobility related products under the ZEEKR brand; automotive design, software systems development, modular development, intelligent electric vehicles virtual engineering, and mobility technology solutions; knockdown kits; export of vehicles; automotive-related integrated vehicle services; and provision of general logistic, packing, and storage services. It operates in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and internationally. Geely Automobile Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Geely Automobile Holdings reported revenue of HK$345B in FY2025 versus HK$102B in FY2021, a compound +35.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$16.9B in FY2025, compounding +36.5%/yr from FY2021.
0175 screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Geely Auto Group Reports 250,161 Vehicle Sales in July
- Geely Automobile (GELHY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
- Is Ford’s Valencia EV Joint Venture With Geely Reshaping The Investment Case For Ford Motor (F)?
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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