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Data-driven stock valuation

Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd (0177) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$46.2B (≈ $5.9B) · ISIN CNE1000003J5

At a glance

JE Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd 0177 · HK
PriceHK$9.91
Fair ValueHK$17.73
Upside+78.9%
Quality51/100

A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of HK$17.73.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd is HK$17.73 per share against a price of HK$9.91, so the fair value sits 79% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +18.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.7% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·5.65% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range HK$12.41 to HK$25.05

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$17.61 to HK$17.73 (+0.7%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$12.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$12.41 to HK$25.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$10.63 HK$4.25 Fair Value HK$17.73 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.25 – HK$10.63 · fair‑value band HK$12.41 – HK$25.05 · the HK$9.91 price screens below the HK$17.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd (0177) currently trades at HK$9.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$17.73, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$15.50 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$9.91 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.51, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.0B at a net margin of 23.7%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$25.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: HK$12.41 (bear) to HK$25.05 (bull), the price of HK$9.91 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 79%, 0177 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3147 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$7.48 HK$8.48 HK$13.28 75
EPV HK$4.21 HK$5.74 HK$7.08 74
ROIC Compounder HK$4.21 HK$5.74 HK$7.08 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.20 HK$24.29 HK$32.96 64
Lynch FV HK$5.98 HK$8.54 HK$11.11 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$5.98 HK$8.54 HK$11.11 57
EPV HK$4.21 HK$5.74 HK$7.08 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.05 HK$12.58 HK$19.96 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.05 HK$10.61 HK$13.21 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$14.36 HK$19.15 HK$23.94 63
P/S Multiple HK$6.04 HK$8.05 HK$10.07 58
P/B Multiple HK$11.63 HK$15.50 HK$19.38 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.57 HK$15.75 HK$20.93 65
EV/EBITDA HK$11.94 HK$17.58 HK$23.22 66
EV/Revenue HK$0.1000 HK$2.28 HK$4.45 46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.11 HK$5.51 HK$8.23 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.48 HK$8.48 HK$13.28 75
ROIC Compounder HK$4.21 HK$5.74 HK$7.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$10.67 HK$15.25 HK$19.82 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$15.50) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.51). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.4 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 1.90 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.02 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4
Dividend yield 5.7% payout 55.0%
Net margin 22.6% FY2025
Return on equity 9.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 35.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$20.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −5.3% 3y avg +15.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$865M FY2025
Net debt HK$25.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of toll roads and bridges in China. The company develops and provides highway ancillary services, including gas stations, catering, and retail businesses in expressway service areas.

Full company description

Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, construction, operation, and management of toll roads and bridges in China. The company develops and provides highway ancillary services, including gas stations, catering, and retail businesses in expressway service areas. It is also involved in investment services; real estate development and management; sale of electricity; advertising; service area operation; clean energy power generation; and agriculture business. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China. Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd reported revenue of 20.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 4.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$20.3B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+1.8%
Dividend yield5.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 1.8% vs 10Y 6.0%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40.3% (2020) → 30.3% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop44% (2020) · in HKD
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY21 13.8B CNY
FY22 13.3B CNY
FY23 15.2B CNY
FY24 23.2B CNY
FY25 20.3B CNY
Net income +1.8%/yr
FY21 4.3B CNY
FY22 3.7B CNY
FY23 4.4B CNY
FY24 4.9B CNY
FY25 4.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.5 %

of which total revenue +9.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −3.8 %
Tax rate +0.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$17.73 +44%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0177.HK

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 65 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.62× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.31× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.56× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE55 · sector 47
FUTURE0 · sector 10
PAST37 · sector 25
HEALTH69 · sector 69
DIVIDEND100 · sector 79

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.80 ¥10.25 +5%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.90 ¥8.68 −20%
Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 HK$6.31 HK$18.50 +193%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.04 ¥13.79 +6%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥16.15 ¥14.90 −8%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.37 ¥9.16 +9%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹18.95 ₹14.79 −22%
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥5.53 ¥5.73 +4%
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹159.18 ₹33.83 −79%
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk JSMR 2,740 IDR 7,830 IDR +186%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd (0177) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$17.73 versus a price of HK$9.91, about +79% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0177?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd is HK$17.73 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.91.
What is the quality score of 0177?
Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd (0177)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$17.73 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$12.41, optimistic scenario HK$25.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$17.73, about +79% upside versus a price of HK$9.91 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$12.41, optimistic scenario HK$25.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd (0177)?
Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0177?
The net profit margin of Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd is about 23.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Expressway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.65% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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