Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings (0306) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$1.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$6.99 to HK$6.75 (−3.4%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price −3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 147% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$4.09 to HK$10.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.21 – HK$3.64 · fair‑value band HK$4.09 – HK$10.86 · the HK$2.74 price screens below the HK$6.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings (0306) currently trades at HK$2.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.75, implying the stock looks roughly 146.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings generated revenue of HK$2.7B at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at HK$1.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.09 (bear case) to HK$10.86 (bull case); at HK$2.74, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 147%, 0306 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$9.30) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.2400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides bus and bus-related services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Non-Franchised Bus, Limousine, Franchised Bus and Public Light Bus (PLB), Chinese Mainland Business, and Others.
Full company description
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides bus and bus-related services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Non-Franchised Bus, Limousine, Franchised Bus and Public Light Bus (PLB), Chinese Mainland Business, and Others. The company offers non-franchised public bus services, such as local transport services, including student, employee, resident, tour, and contract hire services; and cross-boundary transport services between Mainland China and Hong Kong. It also provides hotel and tourism, limousine hire, autonomous transportation, franchised bus and public light bus, motor vehicles repair and maintenance, and travel-related services. In addition, the company engages in holding of properties; and development and management of a scenic area. As of March 31, 2025, it operates approximately 1,220 non-franchised public buses; and 492 limousines. Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Chai Wan, Hong Kong. Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Basic Faith Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings reported revenue of HK$2.8B in FY2026 versus HK$1.2B in FY2022, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$242M in FY2026.
of which total revenue +0.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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