Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited HK$6.96, price HK$2.54, upside +174.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.21 – HK$3.14 · fair‑value band HK$3.88 – HK$10.87 · the HK$2.54 price screens below the HK$6.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides bus and bus-related services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Non-Franchised Bus, Limousine, Franchised Bus and Public Light Bus (PLB), Chinese Mainland Business, and Others.
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Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides bus and bus-related services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Non-Franchised Bus, Limousine, Franchised Bus and Public Light Bus (PLB), Chinese Mainland Business, and Others. The company offers non-franchised public bus services, such as local transport services, including student, employee, resident, tour, and contract hire services; and cross-boundary transport services between Mainland China and Hong Kong. It also provides hotel and tourism, limousine hire, autonomous transportation, franchised bus and public light bus, motor vehicles repair and maintenance, and travel-related services. In addition, the company engages in holding of properties; and development and management of a scenic area. As of March 31, 2025, it operates approximately 1,220 non-franchised public buses; and 492 limousines. Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Chai Wan, Hong Kong. Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Basic Faith Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) currently trades at HK$2.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.96, implying the stock looks roughly 63.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$9.30 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.54 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.09, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.88 (bear) to HK$10.87 (bull), the price of HK$2.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$2.8B in FY2026 versus HK$1.2B in FY2022, a compound +23.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$242M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.3B (≈ $171M) · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3900 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 174%, 0306 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.88Fair Value HK$6.96Bull HK$10.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1512 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +67.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+64.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.64% vs −4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−32% → 12%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 201% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price.
Compare Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+175% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0306
Frequently asked questions
Is Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.96 versus a price of HK$2.54, about +174% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0306?
Our model-based fair value for Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is HK$6.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.54.
What is the quality score of 0306?
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.88, optimistic scenario HK$10.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.96, about +174% upside versus a price of HK$2.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.88, optimistic scenario HK$10.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0306 use?
Our models discount Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited grew +20.9 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.67 %: that much free cash flow Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited it is HK$6.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0306 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.54, fair value HK$6.96, a gap of about +174% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0306?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.96). For Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited the two are HK$4.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited at about HK$1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.54; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0306?
Our models span a range for Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited: cautious scenario HK$3.88, base HK$6.96, optimistic HK$10.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0306?
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$6.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0306 from its 52-week high?
Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited trades at HK$2.54, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$2.97 and 12% above the low of HK$2.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.54, calculated fair value HK$6.96 (+174%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0306 calculated?
We run Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$6.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited currently trades 174 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.54. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.96, about +174% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.88 to HK$10.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) come from?
Earnings per share at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited grew −10.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.0 %, EBIT margin −3.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The market capitalisation of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is HK$1.3B (≈ $171M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Earnings per share at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited are HK$0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The dividend yield of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 3.1% (payout 20.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The net margin of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 8.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
The operating margin of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Revenue at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306)?
Earnings per share at Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited are growing +949% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306) carry?
The net debt of Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited is HK$1.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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