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Tongguan Gold Group (0340) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$9.7B

TG Tongguan Gold Group 0340 · HK
PriceHK$2.92
Fair ValueHK$2.35
Upside-19.5%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 34.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.84% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 93/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.75 – HK$5.79 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price +53.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.75 to HK$5.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.84 HK$0.2884 Fair Value HK$2.35 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2884 – HK$3.84 · fair‑value band HK$1.75 – HK$5.79 · the HK$2.92 price screens above the HK$2.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Tongguan Gold Group (0340) currently trades at HK$2.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.35, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tongguan Gold Group generated revenue of HK$2.4B at a net margin of 34.7%. Revenue grew 81.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$235M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.75 (bear case) to HK$5.79 (bull case); at HK$2.92, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -20%, 0340 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.58 HK$2.88 HK$4.99 80
Residual Income HK$1.04 HK$1.48 HK$8.48 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.02 HK$1.59 HK$2.80 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.67 HK$2.50 HK$5.09 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.52 HK$3.21 HK$6.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9500 HK$1.41 HK$2.36 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.85 HK$3.23 HK$5.94 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.05 HK$4.52 HK$7.90 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.16 HK$2.07 HK$2.55 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.82 HK$3.96 HK$7.72 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.96 HK$4.38 HK$8.39 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.06 HK$7.42 HK$10.41 54
Lynch FV HK$3.83 HK$5.47 HK$7.12 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.83 HK$5.47 HK$7.12 46
EPV HK$1.67 HK$1.91 HK$2.12 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0900 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0900 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1800 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.99 HK$2.66 HK$3.32 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8500 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.69 HK$2.25 HK$2.82 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.28 HK$3.00 HK$3.72 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.86 HK$2.43 HK$3.01 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.6100 HK$0.8100 HK$1.01 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3800 HK$0.5000 HK$0.7500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.58 HK$2.88 HK$4.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.02 HK$1.59 HK$2.80 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.04 HK$1.48 HK$8.48 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.20 HK$3.38 HK$4.45 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.71 HK$6.74 HK$8.76 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$6.74) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +81.2%
Net margin 34.7%
Return on equity 25.2%
Free cash flow HK$514M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.6
More key figures
Operating margin 48.0%
Dividend yield 1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +256%
Net cash HK$235M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 1
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tongguan Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in gold mining operations in China. It is involved in sale of mine-produced gold, including gold concentrate, gold bullion, and related products; gold exploration, mining, processing, and smelting operations; gold recycling; and refining and sale of gold bullion.

Full company description

Tongguan Gold Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in gold mining operations in China. It is involved in sale of mine-produced gold, including gold concentrate, gold bullion, and related products; gold exploration, mining, processing, and smelting operations; gold recycling; and refining and sale of gold bullion. The company was formerly known as China Mining Resources Group Limited and changed its name to Tongguan Gold Group Limited in April 2018. Tongguan Gold Group Limited is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tongguan Gold Group reported revenue of HK$2.4B in FY2025 versus HK$682M in FY2021, a compound +36.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$830M in FY2025, compounding +56.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.4B
Latest YoY
+49.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.9%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.5%
Revenue +36.9%/yr
FY21 HK$682M
FY22 HK$1.2B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.6B
FY25 HK$2.4B
Net income +56.4%/yr
FY21 HK$139M
FY22 HK$50.3M
FY23 HK$51.5M
FY24 HK$211M
FY25 HK$830M

0340 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Tongguan Gold Group · Fair Value
HK$2.35 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tongguan Gold Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0340

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −20% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 48% · Above median
Revenue growth 81% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.44× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.06× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.22× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 7 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 37 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.36 ¥30.58 +8%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tongguan Gold Group (0340) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.35 versus a price of HK$2.92, about −20% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0340?
Our model-based fair value for Tongguan Gold Group is HK$2.35 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.92.
What is the quality score of 0340?
Tongguan Gold Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tongguan Gold Group (0340)?
Tongguan Gold Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0340?
The net profit margin of Tongguan Gold Group is about 34.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 34.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tongguan Gold Group pay a dividend?
Tongguan Gold Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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