China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H HK$5.37, price HK$4.45, upside +20.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.23 – HK$5.49 · fair‑value band HK$3.42 – HK$7.91 · the HK$4.45 price screens below the HK$5.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments.
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China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments. The company explores and develops oil fields; produces and sells crude oil and natural gas; processes, purifies, imports, and trades in crude oil; manufactures, produces, sells, stores, and trades in petroleum products; owns and operates oil depots and service stations; and produces, markets, distributes, and sells refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel. It also manufactures, sells, markets, and distributes petrochemicals and derivative petrochemical products, and other chemical products, such as basic organic chemicals, synthetic resins, synthetic fiber monomers and polymers, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, and chemical fertilizers. In addition, the company explores, produces, and sells petroleum and natural gas; produces, stores, transports, and sells petrochemical and coal chemical products; produces and sells catalyst products, lubricant base oil, polyester chips and fibers, plastics, and petrochemical materials; and offers crude oil jetty and natural gas pipeline transmission services. Further, it engages in the production, sale, research, and development of ethylene and downstream byproducts; import and export of petroleum, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemical, other chemical products, and other commodities and technologies; research, development, and application of technologies and information; hydrogen energy business and related services, such as hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and sales; and battery charging and swapping, solar energy, wind energy, and other new energy business and related services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Beijing, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of China Petrochemical Corporation.
Stock analysis
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) currently trades at HK$4.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.37, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$5.23 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$4.45 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.28, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.42 (bear) to HK$7.91 (bull), the price of HK$4.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H reported revenue of 2.4T CNY in FY2025 versus 2.7T CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 31.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$539B (≈ $68.7B) · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3040 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 21%, 0386 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.42Fair Value HK$5.37Bull HK$7.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0386 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → −1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and −2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+21% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0386
Frequently asked questions
Is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.37 versus a price of HK$4.45, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0386?
Our model-based fair value for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is HK$5.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.45.
What is the quality score of 0386?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.42, optimistic scenario HK$7.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.37, about +21% upside versus a price of HK$4.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.42, optimistic scenario HK$7.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H pay a dividend?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0386 use?
Our models discount China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H grew +3.0 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.27 %: that much free cash flow China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H it is HK$5.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$4.45. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0386 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.45, fair value HK$5.37, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0386?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.37). For China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H the two are HK$0.9280 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H worth?
The market values China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H at about HK$539B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0386?
Our models span a range for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H: cautious scenario HK$3.42, base HK$5.37, optimistic HK$7.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$4.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0386?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 0386?
The PEG ratio of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0386 from its 52-week high?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H trades at HK$4.45, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$5.49 and 13% above the low of HK$3.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, TotalEnergies SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$4.45, calculated fair value HK$5.37 (+21%), Quality Score 46/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0386 calculated?
We run China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H currently trades 21 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was HK$4.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.37, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H right now?
Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$3.42 to HK$7.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) come from?
Earnings per share at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H
How large is the market capitalisation of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The market capitalisation of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is HK$539B (≈ $68.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Earnings per share at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H are HK$0.3040 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The dividend yield of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 5.7% (payout 82.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The net margin of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
The operating margin of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Revenue at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
Earnings per share at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H are growing +27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) carry?
The net debt of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is HK$517B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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