China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · HK · Market cap HK$521B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from HK$3.65 to HK$5.32 (+45.8%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 22% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$3.35 to HK$6.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.23 – HK$5.49 · fair‑value band HK$3.35 – HK$6.90 · the HK$4.36 price screens below the HK$5.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386) currently trades at HK$4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.32, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation generated revenue of HK$2.8T at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at HK$517B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$3.35 (bear case) to HK$6.90 (bull case); at HK$4.36, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 22%, 0386 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$5.23) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments.
Full company description
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments. The company explores and develops oil fields; produces and sells crude oil and natural gas; processes, purifies, imports, and trades in crude oil; manufactures, produces, sells, stores, and trades in petroleum products; owns and operates oil depots and service stations; and produces, markets, distributes, and sells refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel. It also manufactures, sells, markets, and distributes petrochemicals and derivative petrochemical products, and other chemical products, such as basic organic chemicals, synthetic resins, synthetic fiber monomers and polymers, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, and chemical fertilizers. In addition, the company explores, produces, and sells petroleum and natural gas; produces, stores, transports, and sells petrochemical and coal chemical products; produces and sells catalyst products, lubricant base oil, polyester chips and fibers, plastics, and petrochemical materials; and offers crude oil jetty and natural gas pipeline transmission services. Further, it engages in the production, sale, research, and development of ethylene and downstream byproducts; import and export of petroleum, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemical, other chemical products, and other commodities and technologies; research, development, and application of technologies and information; hydrogen energy business and related services, such as hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and sales; and battery charging and swapping, solar energy, wind energy, and other new energy business and related services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Beijing, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of China Petrochemical Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reported revenue of HK$2.4T in FY2025 versus HK$2.7T in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$31.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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