Soho China Ltd (0410) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Soho China Ltd HK$0.21, price HK$0.28, upside -25.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2800 – HK$4.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.2100 – HK$0.8400 · the HK$0.2800 price screens above the HK$0.2100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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SOHO China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in real estate development, and property leasing and related management activities in the People's Republic of China. It also operates serviced hotels and plazas. SOHO China Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Soho China Ltd (0410) currently trades at HK$0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2100, 25.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.7700 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.2800 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$0.0700, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2100 (bear) to HK$0.8400 (bull), the price of HK$0.2800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Soho China Ltd reported revenue of 1.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −291M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.8B (≈ $235M) · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Net margin −21.2% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 52.8% · Revenue (TTM) 1.4B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0410 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2100Fair Value HK$0.2100Bull HK$0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
78.3% (2018) → 50.6% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−21.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)52.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.17× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.39× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Soho China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0410
Frequently asked questions
Is Soho China Ltd (0410) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2100 versus a price of HK$0.2800, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0410?
Our model-based fair value for Soho China Ltd is HK$0.2100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2800.
What is the quality score of 0410?
Soho China Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2100, optimistic scenario HK$0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Soho China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2100, about −25% upside versus a price of HK$0.2800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2100, optimistic scenario HK$0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Soho China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Soho China Ltd (0410)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Soho China Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0410 use?
Our models discount Soho China Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Soho China Ltd that is +20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Soho China Ltd (0410) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Soho China Ltd grew -8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Soho China Ltd (0410) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Soho China Ltd (+20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.91 %: that much free cash flow Soho China Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Soho China Ltd it is HK$0.2100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2800. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Soho China Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0410 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2800, fair value HK$0.2100, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0410?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2100). For Soho China Ltd the two are HK$0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Soho China Ltd worth?
The market values Soho China Ltd at about HK$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0410?
Our models span a range for Soho China Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2100, base HK$0.2100, optimistic HK$0.8400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0410?
The PEG ratio of Soho China Ltd is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Balance-sheet figures for Soho China Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0410 from its 52-week high?
Soho China Ltd trades at HK$0.2800, about 51% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5700 and at the low of HK$0.2800 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Soho China Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Soho China Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2800, calculated fair value HK$0.2100 (−25%), Quality Score 57/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0410 calculated?
We run Soho China Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Soho China Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2800. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2100, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Soho China Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.2100 to HK$0.8400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Soho China Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The market capitalisation of Soho China Ltd is HK$1.8B (≈ $235M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Soho China Ltd is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Earnings per share at Soho China Ltd are HK$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The net margin of Soho China Ltd is −21.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Soho China Ltd is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Soho China Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Soho China Ltd (0410)?
The operating margin of Soho China Ltd is 52.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Revenue at Soho China Ltd is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Soho China Ltd (0410)?
Earnings per share at Soho China Ltd are growing −92.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Soho China Ltd (0410) carry?
The net debt of Soho China Ltd is 14.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 24.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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