SOHO China Limited (0410) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$1.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0900 to HK$0.3600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3300 – HK$4.60 · fair‑value band HK$0.0900 – HK$0.3600 · the HK$0.3300 price screens above the HK$0.0900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
SOHO China Limited (0410) currently trades at HK$0.3300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0900, implying the stock looks roughly 72.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, SOHO China Limited generated revenue of HK$1.4B at a net margin of -21.2%. Revenue declined 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.8%. Net debt stands at HK$14.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0900 (bear case) to HK$0.3600 (bull case); at HK$0.3300, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -73%, 0410 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$4.62) versus DCF Models (HK$0.1500). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SOHO China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in real estate development, and property leasing and related management activities in the People's Republic of China. It also operates serviced hotels and plazas. SOHO China Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SOHO China Limited reported revenue of HK$1.4B in FY2025 versus HK$1.7B in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$291M in FY2025.
0410 screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Plaza S.A →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 528 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,989 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +15% |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR | 43,850 IDR | 15,049 IDR | -66% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,412 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +23% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 392.00 IDR | 1,012 IDR | +158% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 22,000 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -13% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,610 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -4% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 2,990 ARS | +20% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 2,698 IDR | +7% |
| PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG | 74.00 IDR | 122.12 IDR | +65% |
| PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP | 770.00 IDR | 291.52 IDR | -62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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