North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of North Mining Shares Company Limited HK$0.10, price HK$0.04, upside +145.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0130 – HK$0.2600 · fair‑value band HK$0.0659 – HK$0.1321 · the HK$0.0410 price screens below the HK$0.1007 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
Follow North Mining Shares Company in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether North Mining Shares Company is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
North Mining Shares Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploitation, exploration, and production of molybdenum concentrate in the People's Republic of China. The company is also involved in property management operations. North Mining Shares Company Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) currently trades at HK$0.0410, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1007, implying the stock looks roughly 59.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3900 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.0410 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.1100, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0659 (bear) to HK$0.1321 (bull), the price of HK$0.0410 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
North Mining Shares Company Limited reported revenue of HK$1.2B in FY2025 versus HK$1.4B in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$229M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$615M (≈ $78.4M) · P/E ratio 1.0 · P/S ratio 0.20 · Net margin 19.8% · Return on equity 277% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.0% · Operating margin 35.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 146%, 0433 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0659Fair Value HK$0.1007Bull HK$0.1321
Price HK$0.0410 · Upside +145.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−488.3% (2020) → 40.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the price.
Compare North Mining Shares Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 343 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+145.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)276.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)53.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)35.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−49.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.87× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "North Mining Shares Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0433
Frequently asked questions
Is North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1007 versus a price of HK$0.0410, about +146% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0433?
Our model-based fair value for North Mining Shares Company Limited is HK$0.1007 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0410.
What is the quality score of 0433?
North Mining Shares Company Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1007 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0659, optimistic scenario HK$0.1321. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the North Mining Shares Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1007, about +146% upside versus a price of HK$0.0410 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0659, optimistic scenario HK$0.1321. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
North Mining Shares Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, North Mining Shares Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0433 use?
Our models discount North Mining Shares Company Limited at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For North Mining Shares Company Limited that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at North Mining Shares Company Limited grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into North Mining Shares Company Limited (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.26 %: that much free cash flow North Mining Shares Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For North Mining Shares Company Limited it is HK$0.1007 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0410. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is North Mining Shares Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 0433 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0410, fair value HK$0.1007, a gap of about +146% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0433?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0410); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1007). For North Mining Shares Company Limited the two are HK$0.0597 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is North Mining Shares Company Limited worth?
The market values North Mining Shares Company Limited at about HK$615M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0410; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1007 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0433?
Our models span a range for North Mining Shares Company Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.0659, base HK$0.1007, optimistic HK$0.1321 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price HK$0.0410). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0433?
North Mining Shares Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.0 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1007 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
Balance-sheet figures for North Mining Shares Company Limited (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 276.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0433 from its 52-week high?
North Mining Shares Company Limited trades at HK$0.0410, about 56% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0940 and 17% above the low of HK$0.0350 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1007 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to North Mining Shares Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is North Mining Shares Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price HK$0.0410, calculated fair value HK$0.1007 (+146%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0433 calculated?
We run North Mining Shares Company Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1007, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. North Mining Shares Company Limited currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.0410. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1007, about +146% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with North Mining Shares Company Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0659). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0659 to HK$0.1321) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of North Mining Shares Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The market capitalisation of North Mining Shares Company Limited is HK$615M (≈ $78.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The price-to-sales ratio of North Mining Shares Company Limited is 0.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The net margin of North Mining Shares Company Limited is 19.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The return on equity (ROE) of North Mining Shares Company Limited is 277% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of North Mining Shares Company Limited is −14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
The operating margin of North Mining Shares Company Limited is 35.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
Revenue at North Mining Shares Company Limited is growing −49.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433)?
Earnings per share at North Mining Shares Company Limited are growing +415% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does North Mining Shares Company Limited (0433) hold?
North Mining Shares Company Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$5.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch North Mining Shares Company Limited in the live analysis
One click puts North Mining Shares Company Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
