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New City Development Group Limited (0456) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of New City Development Group Limited stock HK$1.15, price HK$0.58, upside +97.8%, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate HK · ISIN KYG648311119

NC New City Development Group Limited logo Thin data Nov 12, 2026

New City Development Group Limited

0456 · HK

Cheap (49% below fair value) and rising price, but weak company: meets 2 of 3 rules.

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Fair value HK$1.15 · Strongly undervalued 
Rising price (uptrend) 
Low debt 
Generates free cash flow 
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 52% above the price (HK$0.8840). 
Quality 25/100 
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −29.4 %/yr in HKD) 
Trails peers (3/9) 
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data 
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.15 HK$0.3000 Fair Value HK$1.15 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3000 – HK$5.15 · fair‑value band HK$0.8840 – HK$1.49 · the HK$0.5800 price screens below the HK$1.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 12, 2026.

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Company profile

New City Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in the People's Republic of China. It also offers general management services, as well as engages in construction materials supply chain business.

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The company was formerly known as New City (China) Development Limited and changed its name to New City Development Group Limited in May 2012. New City Development Group Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

New City Development Group Limited (0456) currently trades at HK$0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.15, implying the stock looks roughly 49% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$10.21 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.5800 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.3000, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.8840 (bear) to HK$1.49 (bull), the price of HK$0.5800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

New City Development Group Limited reported revenue of HK$63.5M in FY2025 versus HK$198M in FY2021, a compound −24.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$221M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$124M (≈ $15.8M) Micro · P/S ratio 2.83 · Return on equity −382% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −364% · Revenue (TTM) HK$42.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) −74.2% · EPS growth (YoY) −63.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 98%, 0456 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.8840 Fair Value HK$1.15 Bull HK$1.49
Price HK$0.5800 · Upside +97.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF HK$12.36 HK$20.58 HK$33.38 76
Growth DCF HK$12.24 HK$19.66 HK$30.65 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.40 HK$7.10 HK$9.04 72
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.36 HK$20.58 HK$33.38 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.40 HK$7.10 HK$9.04 72
10Y Revenue Exit HK$7.84 HK$10.21 HK$13.22 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a HK$0.3000 HK$0.9300 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3700 HK$0.4900 HK$0.7300 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.24 HK$19.66 HK$30.65 75

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 99
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 2
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 52
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.5% (2020) → −162.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +97.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −15.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −74.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.93× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 0.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.92 HK$78.45 +162% vs 0456
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.23 ¥10.09 +93% vs 0456
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.19 HK$22.53 +85% vs 0456
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$49.24 HK$72.05 +46% vs 0456
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$110.90 HK$156.00 +41% vs 0456
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.48 ¥5.64 −25% vs 0456
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.38 HK$6.32 −39% vs 0456
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,220 ₹271.92 −78% vs 0456
DLF Limited DLF ₹758.75 ₹167.48 −78% vs 0456
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.22 $1.52 −82% vs 0456

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New City Development Group Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New City Development Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0456

Frequently asked questions

Is New City Development Group Limited (0456) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.15 versus a price of HK$0.5800, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0456?
Our model-based fair value for New City Development Group Limited is HK$1.15 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5800.
What is the quality score of 0456?
New City Development Group Limited has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.15 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8840, optimistic scenario HK$1.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New City Development Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.15, about +98% upside versus a price of HK$0.5800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8840, optimistic scenario HK$1.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
New City Development Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$42.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New City Development Group Limited it is HK$1.15 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5800. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is New City Development Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 0456 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5800, fair value HK$1.15, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0456?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.15). For New City Development Group Limited the two are HK$0.5675 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New City Development Group Limited worth?
The market values New City Development Group Limited at about HK$124M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0456?
Our models span a range for New City Development Group Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.8840, base HK$1.15, optimistic HK$1.49 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price HK$0.5800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Balance-sheet figures for New City Development Group Limited (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity −382.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0456 from its 52-week high?
New City Development Group Limited trades at HK$0.5800, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7200 and 51% above the low of HK$0.3850 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New City Development Group Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New City Development Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price HK$0.5800, calculated fair value HK$1.15 (+98%), Quality Score 25/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0456 calculated?
We run New City Development Group Limited through 6 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$1.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. New City Development Group Limited currently trades 49% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.5800. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.15, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New City Development Group Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8840). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of New City Development Group Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The market capitalisation of New City Development Group Limited is HK$124M (≈ $15.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New City Development Group Limited is 2.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the return on equity of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New City Development Group Limited is −382% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New City Development Group Limited is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The operating margin of New City Development Group Limited is −364% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Revenue at New City Development Group Limited is down 74.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Earnings per share at New City Development Group Limited are down 63.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does New City Development Group Limited (0456) generate?
The free cash flow of New City Development Group Limited is HK$212M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does New City Development Group Limited (0456) carry?
The net debt of New City Development Group Limited is HK$380M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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