New City Development Group Limited (0456) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of New City Development Group Limited HK$0.63, price HK$0.54, upside +17.3%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3000 – HK$5.15 · fair‑value band HK$0.6335 – HK$0.7120 · the HK$0.5400 price screens below the HK$0.6335 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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New City Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in the People's Republic of China. It also offers general management services, as well as engages in construction materials supply chain business.
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New City Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in the People's Republic of China. It also offers general management services, as well as engages in construction materials supply chain business. The company was formerly known as New City (China) Development Limited and changed its name to New City Development Group Limited in May 2012. New City Development Group Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
New City Development Group Limited (0456) currently trades at HK$0.5400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6335, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$2.18 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.5400 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.5000, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.6335 (bear) to HK$0.7120 (bull), the price of HK$0.5400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
New City Development Group Limited reported revenue of HK$63.5M in FY2025 versus HK$198M in FY2021, a compound −24.7%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$221M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$129M (≈ $16.4M) · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Return on equity −122% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% · Operating margin −204% · Revenue (TTM) HK$63.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) −16.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 17%, 0456 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.6335Fair Value HK$0.6335Bull HK$0.7120
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.5% (2020) → −162.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare New City Development Group Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 574 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+17.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−3.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−16.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New City Development Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0456
Frequently asked questions
Is New City Development Group Limited (0456) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6335 versus a price of HK$0.5400, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0456?
Our model-based fair value for New City Development Group Limited is HK$0.6335 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5400.
What is the quality score of 0456?
New City Development Group Limited has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6335 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6335, optimistic scenario HK$0.7120. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New City Development Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6335, about +17% upside versus a price of HK$0.5400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6335, optimistic scenario HK$0.7120. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
New City Development Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$63.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New City Development Group Limited it is HK$0.6335 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5400. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New City Development Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0456 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5400, fair value HK$0.6335, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0456?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6335). For New City Development Group Limited the two are HK$0.0935 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New City Development Group Limited worth?
The market values New City Development Group Limited at about HK$129M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5400; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6335 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0456?
Our models span a range for New City Development Group Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.6335, base HK$0.6335, optimistic HK$0.7120 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Balance-sheet figures for New City Development Group Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −121.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0456 from its 52-week high?
New City Development Group Limited trades at HK$0.5400, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7200 and 40% above the low of HK$0.3850 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6335 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New City Development Group Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New City Development Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5400, calculated fair value HK$0.6335 (+17%), Quality Score 23/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0456 calculated?
We run New City Development Group Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6335, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. New City Development Group Limited currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.5400. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6335, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New City Development Group Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.6335). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.6335 to HK$0.7120), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of New City Development Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The market capitalisation of New City Development Group Limited is HK$129M (≈ $16.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New City Development Group Limited is 2.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Earnings per share at New City Development Group Limited are HK$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New City Development Group Limited is −122% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New City Development Group Limited is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
The operating margin of New City Development Group Limited is −204% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Revenue at New City Development Group Limited is growing −16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New City Development Group Limited (0456)?
Earnings per share at New City Development Group Limited are growing −63.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does New City Development Group Limited (0456) generate?
The free cash flow of New City Development Group Limited is HK$212M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does New City Development Group Limited (0456) carry?
The net debt of New City Development Group Limited is HK$380M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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