Central Development Holdings (0475) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · HK · Market cap HK$230M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −7.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.3200 to HK$0.7300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2850 – HK$1.45 · fair‑value band HK$0.3200 – HK$0.7300 · the HK$0.3700 price screens below the HK$0.5500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Central Development Holdings (0475) currently trades at HK$0.3700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Central Development Holdings generated revenue of HK$209M at a net margin of -9.6%. Revenue declined 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -98.7%. Net debt stands at HK$122M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3200 (bear case) to HK$0.7300 (bull case); at HK$0.3700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at 49%, 0475 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments.
Full company description
Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments. It manufactures and sells solar cooling intelligent technology products using thermal cooling-stored pipes; sells solar photovoltaic modules and components; and sells refined oil and liquefied natural gas. It sells its jewelry products though jewelry distributors. The company was formerly known as Zhong Fa Zhan Holdings Limited and changed its name to Central Development Holdings Limited in October 2019. Central Development Holdings Limited was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Central Development Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Resources Rich Capital Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Central Development Holdings reported revenue of HK$105M in FY2026 versus HK$193M in FY2022, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$25.9M in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,329 | ₹751.26 | -43% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $330.21 | $127.32 | -61% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $348.25 | $133.18 | -62% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $225.58 | $99.41 | -56% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €29.61 | €3.83 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 70.20 TWD | 15.32 TWD | -78% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹317.00 | ₹846.81 | +167% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 122,400 KRW | 53,541 KRW | -56% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | -86% |
| HD Hyundai Co 267250 | 230,500 KRW | 286,077 KRW | +24% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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