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Central Development Holdings (0475) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$230M

CD Central Development Holdings 0475 · HK
PriceHK$0.3700
Fair ValueHK$0.5500
Upside+48.7%
Quality32/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -9.6% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
Narrow moat 0/100
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.3200 – HK$0.7300 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price −7.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 49% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.3200 to HK$0.7300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.45 HK$0.2850 Fair Value HK$0.5500 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2850 – HK$1.45 · fair‑value band HK$0.3200 – HK$0.7300 · the HK$0.3700 price screens below the HK$0.5500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Central Development Holdings (0475) currently trades at HK$0.3700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Central Development Holdings generated revenue of HK$209M at a net margin of -9.6%. Revenue declined 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -98.7%. Net debt stands at HK$122M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.3200 (bear case) to HK$0.7300 (bull case); at HK$0.3700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at 49%, 0475 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.3000 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3000 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 61
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3000 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6600 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3000 HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 61

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$209M
Revenue growth (YoY) -21.7%
Net margin -9.6%
Return on equity -98.7%
Free cash flow −HK$21.8M FY2025
Operating margin -8.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0400
Net debt HK$122M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments.

Full company description

Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments. It manufactures and sells solar cooling intelligent technology products using thermal cooling-stored pipes; sells solar photovoltaic modules and components; and sells refined oil and liquefied natural gas. It sells its jewelry products though jewelry distributors. The company was formerly known as Zhong Fa Zhan Holdings Limited and changed its name to Central Development Holdings Limited in October 2019. Central Development Holdings Limited was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Central Development Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Resources Rich Capital Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Central Development Holdings reported revenue of HK$105M in FY2026 versus HK$193M in FY2022, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$25.9M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 37/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$105M
Latest YoY
−54.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−24.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.4%
Revenue −14.2%/yr
FY22 HK$193M
FY23 HK$248M
FY24 HK$189M
FY25 HK$228M
FY26 HK$105M
Net income
FY22 −HK$14.0M
FY23 −HK$11.9M
FY24 −HK$31.1M
FY25 −HK$19.2M
FY26 −HK$25.9M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Central Development Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0475

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +49% · Top 25%
Return on assets -3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -8% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -22% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 98 · sector 15
FUTURE 0 · sector 15
PAST 0 · sector 33
HEALTH 100 · sector 81
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 68

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,329 ₹751.26 -43%
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $330.21 $127.32 -61%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $348.25 $133.18 -62%
Phillips 66 PSX $225.58 $99.41 -56%
Neste Oyj NESTE €29.61 €3.83 -87%
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 70.20 TWD 15.32 TWD -78%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹317.00 ₹846.81 +167%
SK Innovation Co 096770 122,400 KRW 53,541 KRW -56%
S-Oil Corporation 010950 140,900 KRW 19,441 KRW -86%
HD Hyundai Co 267250 230,500 KRW 286,077 KRW +24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Central Development Holdings (0475) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5500 versus a price of HK$0.3700, about +49% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0475?
Our model-based fair value for Central Development Holdings is HK$0.5500 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.3700.
What is the quality score of 0475?
Central Development Holdings has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Central Development Holdings (0475)?
Central Development Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$209M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0475?
The net profit margin of Central Development Holdings is about -9.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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