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Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Central Development Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · HK · ISIN KYG207011019

CD Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Central Development Holdings Ltd

0475 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.5500 · Strongly undervalued (+96.4%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.6% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.45 HK$0.2600 Fair Value HK$0.5500 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2600 – HK$1.45 · fair‑value band HK$0.3200 – HK$0.7300 · the HK$0.2800 price screens below the HK$0.5500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments.

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Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments. It manufactures and sells solar cooling intelligent technology products using thermal cooling-stored pipes; sells solar photovoltaic modules and components; and sells refined oil and liquefied natural gas. It sells its jewelry products though jewelry distributors. The company was formerly known as Zhong Fa Zhan Holdings Limited and changed its name to Central Development Holdings Limited in October 2019. Central Development Holdings Limited was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Central Development Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Resources Rich Capital Limited.

Stock analysis

Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) currently trades at HK$0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5500, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.3200 (bear) to HK$0.7300 (bull), the price of HK$0.2800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Central Development Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$105M in FY2026 versus HK$193M in FY2022, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$25.9M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$230M (≈ $29.3M) · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Net margin −24.7% · Return on equity −98.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.2% · Operating margin −8.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$209M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at 96%, 0475 screens cheaper than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−54.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−40.8% (2021) → −12.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +96.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −2.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −21.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 64
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 42
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 56

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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SK Innovation Co 096770 149,200 KRW 50,661 KRW −66%
Sunoco LP, SUN $74.76 $53.89 −28%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹308.50 ₹846.81 +174%

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HK$0.5500 +49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Central Development Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0475

Frequently asked questions

Is Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5500 versus a price of HK$0.2800, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0475?
Our model-based fair value for Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$0.5500 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2800.
What is the quality score of 0475?
Central Development Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5500 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3200, optimistic scenario HK$0.7300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Development Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.5500, about +96% upside versus a price of HK$0.2800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3200, optimistic scenario HK$0.7300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Central Development Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$209M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Development Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.5500 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2800. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Central Development Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 0475 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2800, fair value HK$0.5500, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0475?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5500). For Central Development Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Development Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Central Development Holdings Ltd at about HK$230M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0475?
Our models span a range for Central Development Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3200, base HK$0.5500, optimistic HK$0.7300 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.2800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Balance-sheet figures for Central Development Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0475 from its 52-week high?
Central Development Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.2800, about 54% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6100 and 8% above the low of HK$0.2600 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Development Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Development Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.2800, calculated fair value HK$0.5500 (+96%), Quality Score 32/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0475 calculated?
We run Central Development Holdings Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Central Development Holdings Ltd currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2800. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5500, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Central Development Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.3200 to HK$0.7300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Central Development Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The market capitalisation of Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$230M (≈ $29.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Development Holdings Ltd is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Earnings per share at Central Development Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The net margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −24.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −98.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The operating margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Revenue at Central Development Holdings Ltd is growing −21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) generate?
The free cash flow of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −HK$21.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) carry?
The net debt of Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$122M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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