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Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Central Development Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.26, price HK$0.30, that is 13.0% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Energy HK · ISIN KYG207011019

CD Central Development Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Central Development Holdings Ltd

0475 · HK

Expensive (fair value 13% below the price), weak company and falling price: meets none of the 3 rules.

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Negative equity (buybacks among others) 
Revenue last quarter 74% below a year ago. 
Fair value HK$0.2609 · Overvalued 
Quality 35/100 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −24.9 %/yr in HKD) 
Loss-making · -24.7% net margin (TTM) 
Negative free cash flow 
Trails peers (0/7) 
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data 
⟳ CyclicalEstimate⚠ Thinly traded
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.45 HK$0.2550 Fair Value HK$0.2609 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2550 – HK$1.45 · fair‑value band HK$0.1957 – HK$0.3261 · the HK$0.3000 price screens above the HK$0.2609 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Central Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the design, manufacture, and wholesale of jewelry products in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company operates through Jewelry Business and Energy Business segments.

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It manufactures and sells solar cooling intelligent technology products using thermal cooling-stored pipes; sells solar photovoltaic modules and components; and sells refined oil and liquefied natural gas. It sells its jewelry products though jewelry distributors.

The company was formerly known as Zhong Fa Zhan Holdings Limited and changed its name to Central Development Holdings Limited in October 2019. Central Development Holdings Limited was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Central Development Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Resources Rich Capital Limited.

Stock analysis

Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) currently trades at HK$0.3000, while our estimate is HK$0.2609, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: HK$0.1957 (bear) to HK$0.3261 (bull), the price of HK$0.3000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Central Development Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$105M in FY2026 versus HK$193M in FY2022, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$25.9M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$150M (≈ $19.1M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.33 · Net margin −24.7% · Return on equity −145% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −21.4% · Revenue (TTM) HK$105M · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −13%, 0475 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear HK$0.1957 Fair Value HK$0.2609 Bull HK$0.3261
Price HK$0.3000 · Downside -13.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 9
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 30
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 12
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 20
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 84
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−54.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−40.8% (2021) → −12.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

0475 screens overvalued: fair value 13% below the price. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 118 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −13.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −12.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −24.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −21.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −73.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.43× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)16 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 65

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹302.00 ₹434.58 +44% vs 0475
SK Innovation Co 096770 109,200 KRW 117,049 KRW +7% vs 0475
Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., TUPRS 359.00 TRY 244.26 TRY −32% vs 0475
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,340 ₹865.31 −35% vs 0475
HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $102.18 $52.92 −48% vs 0475
Neste Oyj NESTE €27.62 €11.70 −58% vs 0475
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $414.65 $172.57 −58% vs 0475
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 92.50 TWD 35.53 TWD −62% vs 0475
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $379.83 $131.30 −65% vs 0475
Phillips 66 PSX $264.90 $90.80 −66% vs 0475

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Central Development Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Central Development Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0475

Frequently asked questions

Is Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is HK$0.2609 versus the last price from Nov 6, 2026 of HK$0.3000, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0475?
Our estimate for Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2609 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Nov 6, 2026): HK$0.3000.
What is the quality score of 0475?
Central Development Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of HK$0.2609 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario HK$0.1957, optimistic scenario HK$0.3261. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Development Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at HK$0.2609, about 13% lower versus the last price from Nov 6, 2026 of HK$0.3000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1957, optimistic scenario HK$0.3261. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Central Development Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$105M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Development Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2609 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3000.
Is Central Development Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 0475 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3000, fair value HK$0.2609, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0475?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2609). For Central Development Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0391 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Development Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Central Development Holdings Ltd at about HK$150M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2609 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0475?
Our models span a range for Central Development Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1957, base HK$0.2609, optimistic HK$0.3261 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price HK$0.3000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Balance-sheet figures for Central Development Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0475 from its 52-week high?
Central Development Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.3000, about 51% below its 52-week high of HK$0.6100 and 18% above the low of HK$0.2550 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2609 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Development Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Development Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price HK$0.3000, calculated fair value HK$0.2609 (−13%), Quality Score 35/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Central Development Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The latest price we hold is from Nov 6, 2026 and stands at HK$0.3000. Our estimate is HK$0.2609, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Central Development Holdings Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Central Development Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The market capitalisation of Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$150M (≈ $19.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Development Holdings Ltd is 1.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The net margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −24.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −145% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
The operating margin of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475)?
Revenue at Central Development Holdings Ltd is growing −73.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) generate?
The free cash flow of Central Development Holdings Ltd is −HK$2.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Central Development Holdings Ltd (0475) carry?
The net debt of Central Development Holdings Ltd is HK$122M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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