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China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd HK$0.62, price HK$0.12, upside +416.7%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Energy · HK · ISIN BMG2155W1010

CO Thin data Sep 24, 2026

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd

0603 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.6200 · Strongly undervalued (+416.7%)

!Quality 45/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 0.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)

!Narrow moat 28/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear HK$0.4900 to bull HK$0.7400 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 45/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1130 – HK$0.6100 · fair‑value band HK$0.4900 – HK$0.7400 · the HK$0.1200 price screens below the HK$0.6200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Oil And Gas Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the natural gas and energy-related businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Canada.

China Oil And Gas Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the natural gas and energy-related businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Canada. It operates in four segments: Sales and Distribution of Natural Gas and Other Related Products; Gas Pipeline Construction and Connection; Exploitation and Production of Crude Oil and Natural Gas; and Production and Sales of Coal-Derived Clean Energy and Other Related Products. The company engages in the piped city gas business, pipeline design and construction; transportation, distribution, and sale of compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas; and development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other upstream energy resources. It is also involved in natural gas transmission through pipelines; coal processing and the sales of coal-derived energy and related products; trading of natural gas; and provision of transportation and finance services. The company serves residential, industrial, and commercial users. China Oil And Gas Group Limited was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603) currently trades at HK$0.1200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6200, implying the stock looks roughly 80.6% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.53 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.1200 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2200, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.4900 (bear) to HK$0.7400 (bull), the price of HK$0.1200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$15.2B in FY2025 versus HK$14.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$80.7M in FY2025, compounding −45.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$699M (≈ $89.1M) · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% · Operating margin 8.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at 417%, 0603 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.4900 Fair Value HK$0.6200 Bull HK$0.7400

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0378 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

EPV HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6500 74

FCF DCF HK$1.33 HK$2.53 HK$4.96 73

Growth DCF HK$1.27 HK$2.50 HK$4.10 73

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$1.33 HK$2.53 HK$4.96 73

Owner Earnings HK$0.0600 HK$0.5000 HK$1.20 64

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.34 HK$2.88 HK$5.05 67

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.57 HK$3.40 HK$5.80 70

5Y P/E Exit HK$0.3000 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9000 67

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.25 HK$2.61 HK$4.84 61

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.44 HK$2.95 HK$5.41 63

10Y P/E Exit HK$0.6900 HK$1.12 HK$1.68 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.1000 HK$0.5600 HK$0.7700 61

Lynch FV HK$0.1600 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2900 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1600 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2900 55

EPV HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6500 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.1900 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3200 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 55

EV/EBIT HK$1.81 HK$2.59 HK$3.37 65

EV/EBITDA HK$1.92 HK$2.74 HK$3.55 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.36 HK$2.17 HK$2.98 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.7100 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$1.27 HK$2.50 HK$4.10 73

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.34 HK$2.82 HK$4.88 67

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.4500 HK$0.4100 HK$0.3900 68

ROIC Compounder HK$0.4400 HK$0.5500 HK$0.6500 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4000 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 24

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 33

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 51

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 13

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 95

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 17

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 7

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 72

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−14.1%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year

Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+14.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

+3.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23.0% vs −12.3%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 8.3% · Below median

Return on assets 4.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 8.6% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −13.1% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.28× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.2× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.17× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheapest 25%

P/FCF 0.9× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 1.8× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 19

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100

PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 48

HEALTH (low debt)36 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 68

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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China Oil and Gas Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.6200 +81%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0603" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Oil and Gas Group Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$0.6200</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+81%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Oil and Gas Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0603

Frequently asked questions

Is China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6200 versus a price of HK$0.1200, about +417% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0603?

Our model-based fair value for China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1200.

What is the quality score of 0603?

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4900, optimistic scenario HK$0.7400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Oil and Gas Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.6200, about +417% upside versus a price of HK$0.1200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4900, optimistic scenario HK$0.7400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Oil and Gas Group Ltd it is HK$0.6200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1200. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Oil and Gas Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, 0603 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1200, fair value HK$0.6200, a gap of about +417% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 0603?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6200). For China Oil and Gas Group Ltd the two are HK$0.5000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Oil and Gas Group Ltd worth?

The market values China Oil and Gas Group Ltd at about HK$699M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1200; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6200 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0603?

Our models span a range for China Oil and Gas Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4900, base HK$0.6200, optimistic HK$0.7400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.1200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 0603?

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 1.8.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 1.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 0603 from its 52-week high?

China Oil and Gas Group Ltd trades at HK$0.1200, about 70% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4000 and 6% above the low of HK$0.1130 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6200 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Oil and Gas Group Ltd?

From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Oil and Gas Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.1200, calculated fair value HK$0.6200 (+417%), Quality Score 45/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 0603 calculated?

We run China Oil and Gas Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Oil and Gas Group Ltd currently trades 81 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.1200. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6200, about +417% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Oil and Gas Group Ltd right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The market capitalisation of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is HK$699M (≈ $89.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Earnings per share at China Oil and Gas Group Ltd are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The net margin of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

The operating margin of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Revenue at China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is growing −13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603)?

Earnings per share at China Oil and Gas Group Ltd are growing −12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603) generate?

The free cash flow of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is HK$764M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does China Oil and Gas Group Ltd (0603) carry?

The net debt of China Oil and Gas Group Ltd is HK$7.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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