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China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd HK$1.84, price HK$1.32, upside +39.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN HK0817039453

CJ China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd

0817 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$1.84 · Undervalued (+39.4%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +0.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!2.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$2.59 HK$0.4543 Fair Value HK$1.84 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.4543 – HK$2.59 · fair‑value band HK$1.38 – HK$2.25 · the HK$1.32 price screens below the HK$1.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited engages in residential and integrated property development in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel Operations, Jinmao Services, and Others. The Property Development segment develops residential and comprehensive properties.

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China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited engages in residential and integrated property development in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel Operations, Jinmao Services, and Others. The Property Development segment develops residential and comprehensive properties. The Property Investment segment leases office and retail commercial premises. The Hotel Operations segment offers hotel accommodation services, and food and beverage. The Jinmao Services segment provides property management services and community value-added services, as well as value-added services to non-property owners. The Others segment offers design and decoration services. This segment is also involved in building technology and other services. The company was formerly known as Franshion Properties (China) Limited and changed its name to China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited in September 2015. China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817) currently trades at HK$1.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.84, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$2.29 per share, and 6 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$1.32 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.4700, and 2 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.38 (bear) to HK$2.25 (bull), the price of HK$1.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd reported revenue of 59.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 90.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$17.8B (≈ $2.3B) · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 39%, 0817 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.38 Fair Value HK$1.84 Bull HK$2.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0224 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$2.37 HK$2.29 HK$2.33 76
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.5800 67
Gordon GGM HK$0.2700 HK$0.5500 HK$0.8300 66
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.2700 HK$0.5500 HK$0.8300 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.2700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.5800 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$1.38 HK$1.84 HK$2.31 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.38 HK$1.84 HK$2.31 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.7900 HK$3.15 HK$5.50 59
EV/EBITDA n/a HK$2.05 HK$4.13 62
EV/Revenue n/a n/a HK$0.9600 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.65 HK$2.21 HK$3.29 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.37 HK$2.29 HK$2.33 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.1% vs −10.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +39.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Return on assets 0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.65× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.47× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.30× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.18× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)86 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)8 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)45 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.00 HK$71.49 +55%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹683.00 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.56 ¥5.87 +6%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 HK$19.39 HK$8.31 −57%
CTP N.V CTPNV €12.90 €10.46 −19%

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HK$1.84 +28%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0817

Frequently asked questions

Is China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.84 versus a price of HK$1.32, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0817?
Our model-based fair value for China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is HK$1.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.32.
What is the quality score of 0817?
China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.84 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.38, optimistic scenario HK$2.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.84, about +39% upside versus a price of HK$1.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.38, optimistic scenario HK$2.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$59.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd it is HK$1.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.32. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0817 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.32, fair value HK$1.84, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0817?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.84). For China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd the two are HK$0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd at about HK$17.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.32; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0817?
Our models span a range for China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.38, base HK$1.84, optimistic HK$2.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0817?
China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 16.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 0817?
The PEG ratio of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 0.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 2.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0817 from its 52-week high?
China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd trades at HK$1.32, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$2.00 and 13% above the low of HK$1.17 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.32, calculated fair value HK$1.84 (+39%), Quality Score 37/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0817 calculated?
We run China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.32. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.84, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The market capitalisation of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is HK$17.8B (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Earnings per share at China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The dividend yield of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 2.3% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The net margin of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
The operating margin of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Revenue at China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is growing −7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817)?
Earnings per share at China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd are growing +267% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817) generate?
The free cash flow of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is −HK$6.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd (0817) carry?
The net debt of China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd is HK$117B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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