Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Co Ltd (0840) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$92.0M
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 18, 2026, revised from HK$1.79 to HK$0.1468 (−91.8%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.1197 (bear) to HK$0.1739 (bull), base HK$0.1468. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 46/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1180 – HK$0.3100 · fair‑value band HK$0.1197 – HK$0.1739 · the HK$0.1670 price screens above the HK$0.1468 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Co Ltd (0840) currently trades at HK$0.1670, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1468, implying the stock looks roughly 12.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$848M at a net margin of -6.5%. Revenue grew 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$361M. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1197 (bear case) to HK$0.1739 (bull case); at HK$0.1670, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -12%, 0840 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.86) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells water-savings products in China. The company offers drip films, tapes, and assemblies, as well as PVC and PE piping materials and accessories.
Full company description
Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells water-savings products in China. The company offers drip films, tapes, and assemblies, as well as PVC and PE piping materials and accessories. It also engages in the provision of installation services for water saving irrigation systems; land circulation and engineering businesses; development of digital agriculture and agriculture services; and trading activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Shihezi, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$848M in FY2025 versus HK$1.1B in FY2021, a compound −6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$54.8M in FY2025.
0840 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $855.60 | $307.83 | -64% |
| Deere & Company DE | $619.77 | $182.29 | -71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 344.00 | kr 288.08 | -16% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $131.06 | $94.80 | -28% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 254.50 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.91 | ¥20.84 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.25 | ¥11.79 | +43% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.42 | HK$53.57 | +29% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥28.69 | ¥42.00 | +46% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹176.70 | ₹118.01 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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