Sheng Yuan Holdings (0851) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$154M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1900 to HK$0.1400 (−26.3%) since Aug 5, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0210 – HK$0.4500 · fair‑value band HK$0.1100 – HK$0.1800 · the HK$0.1700 price screens above the HK$0.1400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Sheng Yuan Holdings (0851) currently trades at HK$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1400, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sheng Yuan Holdings generated revenue of HK$120M at a net margin of 8.1%. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$84.9M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 17.0. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1100 (bear case) to HK$0.1800 (bull case); at HK$0.1700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -18%, 0851 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (HK$0.3400) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1000). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides various financial services in Hong Kong. The company operates through Securities Brokerage and Financial Services, Asset Management Services, Proprietary Trading, and Trading Business segments.
Full company description
Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides various financial services in Hong Kong. The company operates through Securities Brokerage and Financial Services, Asset Management Services, Proprietary Trading, and Trading Business segments. The Securities Brokerage and Financial Services segment offer discretionary and non-discretionary dealing services for securities and futures contracts; securities placing and underwriting services; margin financing and money lending services; corporate finance advisory; general advisory services; and custodian services. The Asset Management Services segment provides fund management, discretionary portfolio management, and investment advisory services. The Proprietary Trading segment offers investment holding and securities trading. The Trading Business segment engages in the trading of commodities products. It also provides administrative; investment management; and advisory services. The company serves professional investors and retail investors. Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sheng Yuan Holdings reported revenue of HK$29.3M in FY2025 versus HK$43.3M in FY2021, a compound −9.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.7M in FY2025, compounding +20.1%/yr from FY2021.
0851 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 426 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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