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Digital China Holdings (0861) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Digital China Holdings is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · HK · ISIN BMG2759B1072

DC Some data Sep 13, 2026

Digital China Holdings

0861 · HK

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value HK$2.66 · Undervalued (+29%)
!Quality 59/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.55% dividend yield
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.13 HK$1.60 Fair Value HK$2.66 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.60 – HK$5.13 · the HK$2.07 price screens below the HK$2.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Digital China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides big data products and solutions for government and enterprise customers in Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Data Intelligence Services Business, Integrated Supply Chain Services Business, and Fintech Services and Others Business.

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Digital China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides big data products and solutions for government and enterprise customers in Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Data Intelligence Services Business, Integrated Supply Chain Services Business, and Fintech Services and Others Business. The Data Intelligence Services Business segment provides data intelligence decision-making platforms and full-stack AI technical services centered on computing power, data, algorithm models and intelligent applications; and offers power planning and construction, coordinated scheduling, optimization and reengineering, and computing power asset management. The Integrated Supply Chain Services Business segment offers data technology-making end-to-end supply chain services, focusing on warehousing, transportation, distribution, reverse logistics and intelligent operations. The Fintech Services and Others Business segment includes investments, property sales and leasing; and digital transformation support services for financial institutions and others. In addition, the company engages in provision of logistics; system integration; e-commerce supply chain; develops and constructs Science and Technology Park; data processing and manpower outsourcing services; data integration and management software sales; and property investment and development, as well as finance lease business and patent holding activities. Further, it provides big data products and solution services, including sales of data software products and data solutions; software and operation business, including one-stop end-to-end supply chain operation service and software development, testing, operation and maintenance services; traditional and localization services, including system integration, e-commerce operation services. Digital China Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Digital China Holdings (0861) currently trades at HK$2.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.66, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$5.81 per share, and 7 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$2.07 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.3600, and 4 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Digital China Holdings reported revenue of 23.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was 35.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding −52.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$3.1B (≈ $392M) · P/E ratio 94.0 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 29%, 0861 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.66 Fair Value HK$2.66 Bull HK$2.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$4.58 HK$5.81 HK$7.47 80
Owner Earnings HK$2.93 HK$3.49 HK$4.31 78
Residual Income HK$2.54 HK$2.31 HK$1.59 76
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$2.93 HK$3.49 HK$4.31 78
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.04 HK$3.37 HK$3.68 72
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.58 HK$3.99 HK$4.43 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1400 HK$0.4200 HK$0.5600 65
Lynch FV HK$0.0900 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.4400 HK$0.5900 HK$0.7300 63
P/B Multiple HK$0.2700 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4400 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.91 HK$2.56 HK$3.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.58 HK$5.81 HK$7.47 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.85 HK$6.72 HK$8.83 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.54 HK$2.31 HK$1.59 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−42.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−42% vs −28%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → −1%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Values & ESG

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Digital China Holdings · Fair Value
HK$2.66 +22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Digital China Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0861

Frequently asked questions

Is Digital China Holdings (0861) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.66 versus a price of HK$2.07, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0861?
Our model-based fair value for Digital China Holdings is HK$2.66 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.07.
What is the quality score of 0861?
Digital China Holdings has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.66 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Digital China Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.66, about +29% upside versus a price of HK$2.07 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Digital China Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$21.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Digital China Holdings pay a dividend?
Digital China Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Digital China Holdings (0861)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Digital China Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0861 use?
Our models discount Digital China Holdings at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Digital China Holdings that is -14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Digital China Holdings (0861) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Digital China Holdings grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies -14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Digital China Holdings (0861) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Digital China Holdings (-14.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.00 %: that much free cash flow Digital China Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Digital China Holdings it is HK$2.66 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$2.07. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Digital China Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 0861 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.07, fair value HK$2.66, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0861?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.66). For Digital China Holdings the two are HK$0.5900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Digital China Holdings worth?
The market values Digital China Holdings at about HK$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.07; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.66 per share.
How far is 0861 from its 52-week high?
Digital China Holdings trades at HK$2.07, about 48% below its 52-week high of HK$3.95 and 14% above the low of HK$1.82 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Digital China Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ITOCHU Corporation, 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Digital China Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$2.07, calculated fair value HK$2.66 (+29%), Quality Score 59/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0861 calculated?
We run Digital China Holdings through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Digital China Holdings currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Digital China Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Digital China Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The market capitalisation of Digital China Holdings is HK$3.1B (≈ $392M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Digital China Holdings is 94.0 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Digital China Holdings is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Earnings per share at Digital China Holdings are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 94.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The dividend yield of Digital China Holdings is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The net margin of Digital China Holdings is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Digital China Holdings is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Digital China Holdings is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Digital China Holdings (0861)?
The operating margin of Digital China Holdings is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Revenue at Digital China Holdings is growing +36.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Digital China Holdings (0861)?
Earnings per share at Digital China Holdings are growing +39.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Digital China Holdings (0861) hold?
Digital China Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$476M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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