OSL Group (0863) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$10.4B

Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range (HK$1.79 to HK$3.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.58 – HK$21.50 · fair‑value band HK$1.79 – HK$3.38 · the HK$12.69 price screens above the HK$2.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

OSL Group (0863) currently trades at HK$12.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.70, implying the stock looks roughly 78.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, OSL Group generated revenue of HK$489M at a net margin of -79.1%. Revenue grew 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.79 (bear case) to HK$3.38 (bull case); at HK$12.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -79%, 0863 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

OSL Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in digital assets and blockchain platform business in Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Mainland China. It is involved in the trading of digital assets, brokerage, custody, exchange, and SaaS services.

Full company description

OSL Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in digital assets and blockchain platform business in Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and Mainland China. It is involved in the trading of digital assets, brokerage, custody, exchange, and SaaS services. The company also provides automated digital assets trading services through its proprietary platforms and licensing of its proprietary platforms; licenses its digital asset exchange platform and related technology solutions; consultancy services to white label customers; and secured storage of digital asset services. In addition, it develops and sells intellectual property in relation to digital assets exchange platform; and provides corporate treasury and technical services; and safekeeping services for client assets, as well as payments service for the cryptocurrency exchanges. The company was formerly known as BC Technology Group Limited and changed its name to OSL Group Limited in January 2024. OSL Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

OSL Group reported revenue of HK$489M in FY2025 versus HK$265M in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$387M in FY2025.

0863 screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 426 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.