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Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Paradox Interactive AB SEK 52.28, price SEK 154, upside -65.9%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Paradox Interactive AB
0GDU · LSEQuality Too ExpensiveQuality growthExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value kr 52.28 · Strongly overvalued (−65.9%)
✓Quality 75/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −0.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓3.3% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 49/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 110.07 – kr 288.51 · fair‑value band kr 39.20 – kr 66.98 · the kr 153.50 price screens above the kr 52.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally.
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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) develops and publishes strategy and management games on PC and consoles in the United States, Rest of Europe, Sweden, and internationally. The company's game portfolio comprises various franchises, such as Age of Wonders, Cities: Skylines, Crusader Kings, Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron, Prison Architect, Stellaris, the Surviving games, and Victoria, as well as World of Darkness brand. Paradox Interactive AB (publ) was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) currently trades at kr 153.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 52.28, 65.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 128.78 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 153.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 15.85, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 39.20 (bear) to kr 66.98 (bull), the price of kr 153.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Paradox Interactive AB reported revenue of 2.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 125M SEK in FY2025, compounding −15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.2B SEK (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 0.6 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.21 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −66%, 0GDU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 39.20
Fair Value kr 52.28
Bull kr 66.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 144.03
kr 245.40
kr 413.18
76
Residual Income
kr 17.30
kr 17.41
kr 18.12
76
Growth DCF
kr 140.59
kr 227.17
kr 357.43
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 144.03
kr 245.40
kr 413.18
76
Owner Earnings
kr 151.32
kr 259.48
kr 435.44
71
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 70.23
kr 92.26
kr 118.31
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 129.17
kr 219.07
kr 333.99
71
5Y P/E Exit
kr 71.55
kr 95.09
kr 120.17
69
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 96.08
kr 126.84
kr 168.39
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 132.96
kr 213.87
kr 340.38
64
10Y P/E Exit
kr 97.38
kr 128.78
kr 169.87
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
kr 8.08
kr 43.28
kr 59.97
63
Lynch FV
kr 11.96
kr 17.08
kr 22.21
61
PEG = 1.0
kr 11.96
kr 17.08
kr 22.21
57
EPV
kr 24.11
kr 25.62
kr 26.88
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 38.85
kr 70.02
kr 96.38
68
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 38.85
kr 63.96
kr 74.79
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
kr 19.60
kr 26.14
kr 32.67
63
P/S Multiple
kr 15.15
kr 20.20
kr 25.25
58
P/B Multiple
kr 15.15
kr 20.20
kr 25.25
55
EV/EBIT
kr 34.42
kr 41.55
kr 48.69
63
EV/EBITDA
kr 129.62
kr 168.49
kr 207.35
64
EV/Revenue
kr 29.25
kr 36.20
kr 43.16
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 11.83
kr 15.85
kr 23.66
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 140.59
kr 227.17
kr 357.43
74
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 70.23
kr 92.60
kr 118.13
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 17.30
kr 17.41
kr 18.12
76
ROIC Compounder
kr 24.34
kr 27.56
kr 31.03
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
kr 18.03
kr 25.76
kr 33.49
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
75/100
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.6% vs −4.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.3% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−0.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.8%
0GDU screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with NetEase, Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.23 | ¥27.63 | +94% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 761.00 TWD | 1,094 TWD | +44% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥23.62 | ¥31.97 | +35% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 198,000 KRW | 410,472 KRW | +107% |
| CD Projekt S.A CDR | 244.60 PLN | 269.06 PLN | +10% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥17.38 | ¥39.02 | +125% |
| Kingnet Network Co 002517 | ¥16.17 | ¥22.00 | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 52.28 versus a price of kr 153.50, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0GDU?
Our model-based fair value for Paradox Interactive AB is kr 52.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 153.50.
What is the quality score of 0GDU?
Paradox Interactive AB has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 52.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 39.20, optimistic scenario kr 66.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paradox Interactive AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 52.28, about −66% upside versus a price of kr 153.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 39.20, optimistic scenario kr 66.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Paradox Interactive AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Paradox Interactive AB pay a dividend?
Paradox Interactive AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paradox Interactive AB would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0GDU use?
Our models discount Paradox Interactive AB at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paradox Interactive AB that is +1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paradox Interactive AB grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paradox Interactive AB (+1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.60 %: that much free cash flow Paradox Interactive AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paradox Interactive AB it is kr 52.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 153.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paradox Interactive AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0GDU trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 153.50, fair value kr 52.28, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0GDU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 153.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 52.28). For Paradox Interactive AB the two are kr 101.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paradox Interactive AB worth?
The market values Paradox Interactive AB at about 19.2B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 153.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 52.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0GDU?
Our models span a range for Paradox Interactive AB: cautious scenario kr 39.20, base kr 52.28, optimistic kr 66.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 153.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0GDU from its 52-week high?
Paradox Interactive AB trades at kr 153.50, about 13% below its 52-week high of kr 177.35 and 37% above the low of kr 112.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 52.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paradox Interactive AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paradox Interactive AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 153.50, calculated fair value kr 52.28 (−66%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0GDU calculated?
We run Paradox Interactive AB through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 52.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Paradox Interactive AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 153.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 52.28, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paradox Interactive AB right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 66.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) come from?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB grew +11.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.2 %, EBIT margin −7.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Paradox Interactive AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The market capitalisation of Paradox Interactive AB is 19.2B SEK (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Paradox Interactive AB is 0.6 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paradox Interactive AB is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB are kr 3.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The dividend yield of Paradox Interactive AB is 3.3% (payout 156%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The net margin of Paradox Interactive AB is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paradox Interactive AB is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paradox Interactive AB is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
The operating margin of Paradox Interactive AB is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Revenue at Paradox Interactive AB is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU)?
Earnings per share at Paradox Interactive AB are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Paradox Interactive AB (0GDU) hold?
Paradox Interactive AB holds more cash than debt, 1.2B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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