Neste Oyj (0O46) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Neste Oyj €9.71, price €31.43, upside -69.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.94 – €49.53 · fair‑value band €7.28 – €12.14 · the €31.43 price screens above the €9.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments.
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Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Neste Oyj (0O46) currently trades at €31.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.71, 69.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €13.70 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the €31.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.12, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €7.28 (bear) to €12.14 (bull), the price of €31.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Neste Oyj reported revenue of €11.8B in FY2020 versus €11.7B in FY2016, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was €712M in FY2020, compounding −6.7%/yr from FY2016.
Key figures
Market cap €30.3B · P/S ratio 1.47 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 19.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% · Operating margin 15.4% · Revenue (TTM) €20.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −69%, 0O46 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €7.28Fair Value €9.71Bull €12.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.9% (2016) → 7.0% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−52.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.4% · Above median
Return on assets7.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neste Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0O46
Frequently asked questions
Is Neste Oyj (0O46) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.71 versus a price of €31.43, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0O46?
Our model-based fair value for Neste Oyj is €9.71 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €31.43.
What is the quality score of 0O46?
Neste Oyj has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €9.71 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.28, optimistic scenario €12.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neste Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €9.71, about −69% upside versus a price of €31.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.28, optimistic scenario €12.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Neste Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Neste Oyj pay a dividend?
Neste Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neste Oyj it is €9.71 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €31.43. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neste Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0O46 trades above its calculated fair value: price €31.43, fair value €9.71, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0O46?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€31.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€9.71). For Neste Oyj the two are €21.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neste Oyj worth?
The market values Neste Oyj at about €30.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €31.43; our models calculate a fair value of €9.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0O46?
Our models span a range for Neste Oyj: cautious scenario €7.28, base €9.71, optimistic €12.14 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €31.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neste Oyj (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 19.4%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0O46 from its 52-week high?
Neste Oyj trades at €31.43, about 11% below its 52-week high of €35.34 and 97% above the low of €15.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €9.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neste Oyj?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neste Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €31.43, calculated fair value €9.71 (−69%), Quality Score 57/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0O46 calculated?
We run Neste Oyj through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €9.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Neste Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €31.43. Our model-based fair value is €9.71, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neste Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€12.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Neste Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The market capitalisation of Neste Oyj is €30.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neste Oyj is 1.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The dividend yield of Neste Oyj is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The net margin of Neste Oyj is 6.1% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neste Oyj is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neste Oyj is 14.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neste Oyj (0O46)?
The operating margin of Neste Oyj is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Revenue at Neste Oyj is growing +32.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neste Oyj (0O46)?
Earnings per share at Neste Oyj are growing +367% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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