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MCH Group (0QPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MCH Group £6.38, price £6.70, upside -4.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
MCH Group
0QPF · LSENeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value £6.38 · Fairly valued (−4.8%)
✓Quality 63/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 42/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.98 – £66.64 · fair‑value band £4.64 – £8.12 · the £6.70 price screens above the £6.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
MCH Group AG operates as a live marketing company that provides a network of services in the exhibition and event market worldwide.
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MCH Group AG operates as a live marketing company that provides a network of services in the exhibition and event market worldwide. The company provides community platforms for use in the construction, hospitality, life sciences, and education sectors; and experience marketing solutions to institutions, event organizers, or companies in the fields of business, culture, and sports under the MCH Global, Expomobilia, and MC2 brands. It offers trade fairs, guest events, and event venues, as well as trade fair and conference infrastructures. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
MCH Group (0QPF) currently trades at £6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £6.38, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £55.94 per share, and 23 of the 25 models we run sit above the £6.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £12.28, and 2 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £4.64 (bear) to £8.12 (bull), the price of £6.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MCH Group reported revenue of £430M in FY2025 versus £243M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was £18.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £27.7M · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) £−1.14 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 3.3% · Revenue (TTM) £389M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −5%, 0QPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £4.64
Fair Value £6.38
Bull £8.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
£70.74
£94.99
£128.52
79
Growth DCF
£72.06
£94.23
£123.46
77
Residual Income
£19.36
£24.02
£33.90
75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
£70.74
£94.99
£128.52
79
Owner Earnings
£79.89
£108.10
£147.13
74
5Y Revenue Exit
£60.11
£81.35
£107.37
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
£77.94
£113.35
£153.11
73
5Y P/E Exit
£63.83
£88.03
£112.18
69
10Y Revenue Exit
£62.54
£82.10
£106.17
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
£74.62
£103.33
£139.02
66
10Y P/E Exit
£65.97
£86.53
£109.63
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
£21.05
£52.30
£67.81
65
PEG = 1.0
£9.51
£13.59
£17.67
57
EPV
£44.97
£49.72
£53.81
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
£0.4100
£0.7400
£1.15
67
DDM Multi-Stage
£0.4100
£0.6100
£0.8200
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
£51.08
£68.10
£85.13
63
P/S Multiple
£39.47
£52.63
£65.78
58
P/B Multiple
£39.47
£52.63
£65.78
55
EV/EBIT
£69.43
£87.61
£105.79
63
EV/EBITDA
£91.68
£117.27
£142.86
64
EV/Revenue
£56.26
£73.98
£91.70
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£9.17
£12.28
£18.33
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
£72.06
£94.23
£123.46
77
Rev-Margin DCF
£60.11
£82.05
£106.05
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
£19.36
£24.02
£33.90
75
ROIC Compounder
£45.52
£50.97
£56.10
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
£39.16
£55.94
£72.72
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.2% (2020) → 6.3% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.1% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $290.43 | $319.47 | +10% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €94.24 | €145.63 | +55% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $73.63 | $114.19 | +55% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.71 | +23% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.96 | €20.99 | −16% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $12.05 | $43.84 | +264% |
| WPP plc WPP | $25.99 | $39.72 | +53% |
| Leo Group 002131 | ¥4.31 | ¥0.6000 | −86% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $25.67 | $28.24 | +10% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$13.51 | HK$12.22 | −10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is MCH Group (0QPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £6.38 versus a price of £6.70, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0QPF?
Our model-based fair value for MCH Group is £6.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £6.70.
What is the quality score of 0QPF?
MCH Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MCH Group (0QPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £6.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.64, optimistic scenario £8.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MCH Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £6.38, about −5% upside versus a price of £6.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £4.64, optimistic scenario £8.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MCH Group (0QPF)?
MCH Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £389M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into MCH Group (0QPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MCH Group would have to grow free cash flow by -20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QPF use?
Our models discount MCH Group at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MCH Group that is -20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MCH Group (0QPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MCH Group grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies -20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MCH Group (0QPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MCH Group (-20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.71 %: that much free cash flow MCH Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MCH Group (0QPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MCH Group it is £6.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £6.70. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MCH Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QPF trades above its calculated fair value: price £6.70, fair value £6.38, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£6.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£6.38). For MCH Group the two are £0.3233 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MCH Group worth?
The market values MCH Group at about £27.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £6.70; our models calculate a fair value of £6.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QPF?
Our models span a range for MCH Group: cautious scenario £4.64, base £6.38, optimistic £8.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £6.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0QPF from its 52-week high?
MCH Group trades at £6.70, about 4% below its 52-week high of £6.96 and 118% above the low of £3.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £6.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MCH Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MCH Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £6.70, calculated fair value £6.38 (−5%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QPF calculated?
We run MCH Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £6.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MCH Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £6.70. Our model-based fair value is £6.38, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MCH Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of MCH Group (0QPF) come from?
Earnings per share at MCH Group grew −24.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −15.0 %, EBIT margin −6.2 %, tax rate −5.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MCH Group
How large is the market capitalisation of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The market capitalisation of MCH Group is £27.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MCH Group is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MCH Group (0QPF)?
Earnings per share at MCH Group are £−1.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The net margin of MCH Group is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MCH Group is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MCH Group (0QPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MCH Group is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MCH Group (0QPF)?
The operating margin of MCH Group is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MCH Group (0QPF)?
Revenue at MCH Group is growing −6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MCH Group (0QPF)?
Earnings per share at MCH Group are growing +41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MCH Group (0QPF) carry?
The net debt of MCH Group is £36.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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