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Catella AB (0RL4) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Catella AB SEK 13.57, price SEK 18.18, upside -25.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Catella AB
0RL4 · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value kr 13.57 · Overvalued (−25.4%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 13.66 – kr 41.81 · fair‑value band kr 8.99 – kr 14.98 · the kr 18.18 price screens above the kr 13.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Catella AB (publ) is a real estate investment firm. The firm together with its subsidiaries, provides property advisory and investments, and fund management services in Europe. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Finance and Asset Management.
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Catella AB (publ) is a real estate investment firm. The firm together with its subsidiaries, provides property advisory and investments, and fund management services in Europe. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Finance and Asset Management. The Corporate Finance segment offers strategic advisory, capital market-related, and transaction advisory services to real estate companies, financial institutions, property funds, and other property owners. The Asset Management segment provides property investment management, fund, and asset management services to institutional and other professional investors, as well as project management services in the early phase of property development projects. This segment also offers equity, hedge, and fixed income funds, as well as systematic funds. The company was formerly known as Scribona AB (publ) and changed its name to Catella AB (publ) in 2010. Catella AB (publ) was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Catella AB (0RL4) currently trades at kr 18.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 13.57, 25.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 30.23 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the kr 18.18 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 8.80, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 8.99 (bear) to kr 14.98 (bull), the price of kr 18.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Catella AB reported revenue of 2.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.9B SEK in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 48.0M SEK in FY2025, compounding −27.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B SEK (≈ $210M) · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.78 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin −15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0RL4 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 8.99
Fair Value kr 13.57
Bull kr 14.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.35 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
kr 23.41
kr 29.16
kr 35.75
82
Growth DCF
kr 23.65
kr 28.87
kr 34.59
80
Owner Earnings
kr 25.27
kr 31.56
kr 38.76
78
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
kr 23.41
kr 29.16
kr 35.75
82
Owner Earnings
kr 25.27
kr 31.56
kr 38.76
78
5Y Revenue Exit
kr 23.68
kr 32.88
kr 44.05
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
kr 28.59
kr 41.53
kr 55.86
76
5Y P/E Exit
kr 16.88
kr 20.87
kr 24.69
72
10Y Revenue Exit
kr 22.91
kr 30.23
kr 39.03
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
kr 25.98
kr 35.21
kr 46.33
69
10Y P/E Exit
kr 19.73
kr 23.32
kr 27.06
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
kr 3.88
kr 8.80
kr 11.28
65
PEG = 1.0
kr 1.45
kr 2.08
kr 2.70
57
EPV
kr 18.17
kr 19.91
kr 21.33
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
kr 6.62
kr 9.51
kr 12.05
69
DDM Multi-Stage
kr 6.62
kr 8.87
kr 10.89
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
kr 8.99
kr 11.98
kr 14.98
63
P/S Multiple
kr 7.28
kr 9.70
kr 12.13
58
P/B Multiple
kr 7.28
kr 9.70
kr 12.13
55
EV/EBIT
kr 34.12
kr 44.27
kr 54.43
66
EV/EBITDA
kr 37.26
kr 48.47
kr 59.67
67
EV/Revenue
kr 25.39
kr 34.71
kr 44.03
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
kr 11.24
kr 15.06
kr 22.48
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
kr 23.65
kr 28.87
kr 34.59
80
Rev-Margin DCF
kr 23.68
kr 33.20
kr 43.36
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
kr 14.62
kr 13.86
kr 13.51
76
ROIC Compounder
kr 18.17
kr 19.91
kr 21.33
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
kr 6.74
kr 9.62
kr 12.51
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
37/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
’14
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.8% vs −14.7%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−26.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+23.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+20.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+18.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+15.4%
Compare Catella AB with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Professional Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5298 stocks
Beats the sector median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Airports of Thailand Public Company AOT | 62.25 THB | 54.20 THB | −13% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Catella AB (0RL4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 13.57 versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of kr 18.18, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0RL4?
Our model-based fair value for Catella AB is kr 13.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 23, 2026): kr 18.18.
What is the quality score of 0RL4?
Catella AB has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catella AB (0RL4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 13.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 8.99, optimistic scenario kr 14.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catella AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 13.57, about −25% upside versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of kr 18.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 8.99, optimistic scenario kr 14.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Catella AB (0RL4)?
Catella AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Catella AB pay a dividend?
Catella AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Catella AB (0RL4)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Catella AB would have to grow free cash flow by +3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0RL4 use?
Our models discount Catella AB at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Catella AB that is +3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Catella AB (0RL4) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Catella AB grew -0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Catella AB (0RL4) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Catella AB (+3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.91 %: that much free cash flow Catella AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Catella AB (0RL4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catella AB it is kr 13.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 18.18. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catella AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0RL4 trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 18.18, fair value kr 13.57, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0RL4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 18.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 13.57). For Catella AB the two are kr 4.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catella AB worth?
The market values Catella AB at about 2.1B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 18.18; our models calculate a fair value of kr 13.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0RL4?
Our models span a range for Catella AB: cautious scenario kr 8.99, base kr 13.57, optimistic kr 14.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 18.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0RL4?
Catella AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 13.57 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catella AB (0RL4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catella AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0RL4 from its 52-week high?
Catella AB trades at kr 18.18, about 42% below its 52-week high of kr 31.45 and 1% above the low of kr 17.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 13.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catella AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Samsung C&T Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catella AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 18.18, calculated fair value kr 13.57 (−25%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0RL4 calculated?
We run Catella AB through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 13.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Catella AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 23, 2026 and stands at kr 18.18. Our model-based fair value is kr 13.57, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catella AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 14.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Catella AB (0RL4) come from?
Earnings per share at Catella AB grew −19.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −24.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Catella AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The market capitalisation of Catella AB is 2.1B SEK (≈ $210M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Catella AB (0RL4)?
Earnings per share at Catella AB are kr 1.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The dividend yield of Catella AB is 3.8% (payout 38.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The net margin of Catella AB is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catella AB is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catella AB (0RL4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catella AB is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catella AB (0RL4)?
The operating margin of Catella AB is −15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catella AB (0RL4)?
Revenue at Catella AB is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Catella AB (0RL4)?
Earnings per share at Catella AB are growing −65.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Catella AB (0RL4) hold?
Catella AB holds more cash than debt, 70.0M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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