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Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ryanair Holdings £40.51, price £19.95, upside +103.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Ryanair Holdings
0RYA · LSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value £40.51 · Strongly undervalued (+103.1%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +13.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £8.99 – £25.87 · fair‑value band £24.90 – £67.13 · the £19.95 price screens below the £40.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers various ancillary services; engages in other activities connected with its air passenger service, including non-flight scheduled and Internet-related services, as well as in-flight sale of beverages, food, duty-free, and merchandise; and markets car hire, travel insurance, and accommodation services through its website and mobile app. It also provides passenger and aircraft handling, ticketing, and maintenance and repair services; and markets car parking, fast-track, airport transfers, attractions, and activities on its website and mobile app, as well as sells gift vouchers. Ryanair Holdings plc was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) currently trades at £19.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £40.51, implying the stock looks roughly 50.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £51.48 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the £19.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £5.41, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £24.90 (bear) to £67.13 (bull), the price of £19.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ryanair Holdings reported revenue of €15.5B in FY2026 versus €4.8B in FY2022, a compound +34.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 20.8B GBX · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 2.21 · EPS (TTM) £1.23 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at 103%, 0RYA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £24.90
Fair Value £40.51
Bull £67.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
£26.84
£41.51
£87.29
76
Growth DCF
£25.43
£45.92
£86.91
75
EPV
£18.92
£21.73
£24.19
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
£26.84
£41.51
£87.29
76
Owner Earnings
£23.59
£51.05
£108.69
71
5Y Revenue Exit
£21.00
£35.78
£65.45
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
£30.54
£55.79
£103.49
72
5Y P/E Exit
£28.72
£60.12
£101.73
68
10Y Revenue Exit
£22.00
£43.56
£63.05
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
£29.50
£62.74
£126.28
64
10Y P/E Exit
£28.20
£59.07
£114.46
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
£11.82
£82.44
£115.69
63
Lynch FV
£27.23
£38.90
£50.57
61
PEG = 1.0
£27.23
£38.90
£50.57
57
EPV
£18.92
£21.73
£24.19
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
£27.38
£36.50
£45.63
63
P/S Multiple
£18.65
£24.86
£31.08
58
P/B Multiple
£22.16
£29.55
£36.94
55
EV/EBIT
£27.14
£35.50
£43.86
66
EV/EBITDA
£31.95
£41.91
£51.87
67
EV/Revenue
£17.73
£24.44
£31.16
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£4.04
£5.41
£8.08
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
£25.43
£45.92
£86.91
75
Rev-Margin DCF
£21.00
£39.95
£69.20
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
£11.44
£15.45
£29.29
72
ROIC Compounder
£23.25
£32.77
£45.96
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
£36.04
£51.48
£66.93
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−51% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.9% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.5%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2031 (sales)+5.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.13 | $121.83 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $111.51 | $149.61 | +34% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $42.28 | $14.74 | −65% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹4,940 | ₹3,073 | −38% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 6.65 SGD | 7.88 SGD | +18% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.45 | $106.79 | +104% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.86 | ¥2.78 | −43% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.37 | HK$31.02 | +116% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.60 | €9.90 | +30% |
| Qantas Airways Limited QAN | A$8.93 | A$9.69 | +9% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £40.51 versus a price of £19.95, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0RYA?
Our model-based fair value for Ryanair Holdings is £40.51 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £19.95.
What is the quality score of 0RYA?
Ryanair Holdings has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £40.51 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £24.90, optimistic scenario £67.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ryanair Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £40.51, about +103% upside versus a price of £19.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £24.90, optimistic scenario £67.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Ryanair Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Ryanair Holdings pay a dividend?
Ryanair Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ryanair Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0RYA use?
Our models discount Ryanair Holdings at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ryanair Holdings that is +1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ryanair Holdings grew +56.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ryanair Holdings (+1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.36 %: that much free cash flow Ryanair Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ryanair Holdings it is £40.51 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of £19.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ryanair Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0RYA trades below its calculated fair value: price £19.95, fair value £40.51, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0RYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£19.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£40.51). For Ryanair Holdings the two are £20.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ryanair Holdings worth?
The market values Ryanair Holdings at about 20.8B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is £19.95; our models calculate a fair value of £40.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0RYA?
Our models span a range for Ryanair Holdings: cautious scenario £24.90, base £40.51, optimistic £67.13 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price £19.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0RYA from its 52-week high?
Ryanair Holdings trades at £19.95, about 23% below its 52-week high of £25.87 and 4% above the low of £19.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £40.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ryanair Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ryanair Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price £19.95, calculated fair value £40.51 (+103%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0RYA calculated?
We run Ryanair Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £40.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ryanair Holdings currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £19.95. Our model-based fair value is £40.51, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ryanair Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£24.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (£24.90 to £67.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Ryanair Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The market capitalisation of Ryanair Holdings is 20.8B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ryanair Holdings is 15.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ryanair Holdings is 2.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Earnings per share at Ryanair Holdings are £1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The dividend yield of Ryanair Holdings is 1.9% (payout 31.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The net margin of Ryanair Holdings is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ryanair Holdings is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ryanair Holdings is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
The operating margin of Ryanair Holdings is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Revenue at Ryanair Holdings is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ryanair Holdings (0RYA)?
Earnings per share at Ryanair Holdings are growing −79.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ryanair Holdings (0RYA) carry?
The net debt of Ryanair Holdings is €311M (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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