Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$78.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$31.02 to HK$11.32 (−63.5%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +12.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$8.28 (bear) to HK$14.91 (bull), base HK$11.32. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.04 – HK$15.14 · fair‑value band HK$8.28 – HK$14.91 · the HK$14.97 price screens above the HK$11.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) currently trades at HK$14.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.32, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cathay Pacific Airways Limited generated revenue of HK$117B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 14.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at HK$50.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$8.28 (bear case) to HK$14.91 (bull case); at HK$14.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -24%, 0293 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$39.54) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services.
Full company description
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services. The company operates in the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, the Americas, the Southeast Asia and the Oceania, Europe, the South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As of 31st December 2025, it operates 237 aircraft and 103 new passenger and freighter aircraft. Cathay Pacific Airways Limited was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Lantau Island, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported revenue of HK$117B in FY2025 versus HK$45.6B in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.8B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +0.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +6.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0293 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cathay Pacific Sees Up to HK$6.5B Profit as Shares Jump 3%
- Cathay Pacific halts restart of Mideast cargo flights as war reignites
- China's Big Three Airlines Trail Cathay by Nearly 50 Percentage Points
Peer Group
Airlines · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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