Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock HK$11.32, price HK$15.06, that is 24.8% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.04 – HK$15.14 · fair‑value band HK$8.28 – HK$14.91 · the HK$15.06 price screens above the HK$11.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Cathay Pacific Airways in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Cathay Pacific Airways is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services.
Show moreShow less
The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services.
The company operates in the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, the Americas, the Southeast Asia and the Oceania, Europe, the South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As of 31st December 2025, it operates 237 aircraft and 103 new passenger and freighter aircraft.
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Lantau Island, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) currently trades at HK$15.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.32, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$50.12 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$15.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.04, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$8.28 (bear) to HK$14.91 (bull), the price of HK$15.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported revenue of HK$117B in FY2025 versus HK$45.6B in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$94.5B (≈ $12.1B) Large · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.58 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 24.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0293 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$8.28Fair Value HK$11.32BullHK$14.91
Price HK$15.06 · Downside -24.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$34.95HK$57.89HK$94.9378
Growth DCFHK$35.62HK$55.87HK$86.5077
Owner EarningsHK$37.02HK$61.24HK$100.3475
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$34.95HK$57.89HK$94.9378
Owner EarningsHK$37.02HK$61.24HK$100.3475
5Y Revenue ExitHK$23.60HK$37.16HK$54.2772
5Y EBITDA ExitHK$35.17HK$59.06HK$87.0374
5Y P/E ExitHK$26.87HK$43.35HK$60.6370
10Y Revenue ExitHK$26.53HK$40.12HK$58.1166
10Y EBITDA ExitHK$34.77HK$55.72HK$83.8967
10Y P/E ExitHK$29.35HK$44.52HK$63.1164
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddHK$12.11HK$39.63HK$52.9664
Lynch FVHK$8.89HK$12.70HK$16.5061
PEG = 1.0HK$8.89HK$12.70HK$16.5057
EPVHK$18.32HK$21.93HK$25.1374
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMHK$7.07HK$15.33HK$25.6065
DDM Multi-StageHK$7.07HK$12.16HK$15.9966
Multiples
P/E MultipleHK$28.04HK$37.39HK$46.7463
P/S MultipleHK$22.70HK$30.27HK$37.8458
P/B MultipleHK$6.91HK$9.21HK$11.5255
EV/EBITHK$21.18HK$31.02HK$40.8565
EV/EBITDAHK$33.64HK$47.63HK$61.6267
EV/RevenueHK$12.73HK$21.76HK$30.7852
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$3.76HK$5.04HK$7.5354
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$35.62HK$55.87HK$86.5077
Rev-Margin DCFHK$23.60HK$37.40HK$53.6072
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeHK$11.67HK$14.96HK$23.9274
ROIC CompounderHK$19.96HK$26.56HK$34.6672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EHK$23.60HK$33.72HK$43.8367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+95.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+89.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.148
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.89.9% vs 13.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−20% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.2% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Cathay Pacific Airways Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−24.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.57× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.72× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)5.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG4.15× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)98· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.32 versus a price of HK$15.06, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0293?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is HK$11.32 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$15.06.
What is the quality score of 0293?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$11.32 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.28, optimistic scenario HK$14.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$11.32, about 25% lower versus a price of HK$15.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.28, optimistic scenario HK$14.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$131B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Cathay Pacific Airways Limited pay a dividend?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 5.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited pays a dividend of HK$0.9 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2026. The payout ratio is 56.9% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 50.5%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.91 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cathay Pacific Airways Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0293 use?
Our models discount Cathay Pacific Airways Limited at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited that is -11.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (-11.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.86 %: that much free cash flow Cathay Pacific Airways Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited it is HK$11.32 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$15.06. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 0293 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$15.06, fair value HK$11.32, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0293?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$15.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$11.32). For Cathay Pacific Airways Limited the two are HK$3.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited worth?
The market values Cathay Pacific Airways Limited at about HK$94.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$15.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$11.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0293?
Our models span a range for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited: cautious scenario HK$8.28, base HK$11.32, optimistic HK$14.91 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$15.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0293?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$11.32 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.5 (reported for FY2025: 9.4). Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 0293?
The PEG ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 4.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 24.5%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0293 from its 52-week high?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited trades at HK$15.06, about 1% below its 52-week high of HK$15.14 and 37% above the low of HK$10.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$11.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cathay Pacific Airways Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$15.06, calculated fair value HK$11.32 (−25%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0293 calculated?
We run Cathay Pacific Airways Limited through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$11.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cathay Pacific Airways Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$15.06. Our model-based fair value is HK$11.32, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cathay Pacific Airways Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) come from?
Earnings per share at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited grew +16.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +10.4 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The market capitalisation of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is HK$94.5B (≈ $12.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The dividend yield of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 6.0% (payout 56.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 50.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The net margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 24.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
The operating margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Revenue at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is growing +25.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Earnings per share at Cathay Pacific Airways Limited are growing +81.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) carry?
The net debt of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is HK$50.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Cathay Pacific Airways Limited in the live analysis
One click puts Cathay Pacific Airways Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026