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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$78.9B

CP Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 · HK
PriceHK$14.97
Fair ValueHK$11.32
Upside-24.4%
Quality62/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 9.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.56% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: High Range HK$8.28 – HK$14.91 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$31.02 to HK$11.32 (−63.5%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price +12.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from HK$8.28 (bear) to HK$14.91 (bull), base HK$11.32. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$15.14 HK$5.04 Fair Value HK$11.32 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.04 – HK$15.14 · fair‑value band HK$8.28 – HK$14.91 · the HK$14.97 price screens above the HK$11.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) currently trades at HK$14.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.32, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cathay Pacific Airways Limited generated revenue of HK$117B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 14.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at HK$50.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$8.28 (bear case) to HK$14.91 (bull case); at HK$14.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -24%, 0293 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$28.31 HK$43.69 HK$65.96 80
Residual Income HK$11.56 HK$14.89 HK$45.07 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$21.33 HK$34.54 HK$49.98 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$27.87 HK$45.41 HK$72.55 38
Owner Earnings HK$22.52 HK$36.95 HK$59.28 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$21.33 HK$34.40 HK$50.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$32.68 HK$55.85 HK$83.07 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$24.54 HK$40.46 HK$57.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$22.75 HK$35.31 HK$52.08 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$30.67 HK$50.29 HK$76.83 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$25.45 HK$39.54 HK$56.89 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$12.11 HK$39.63 HK$52.96 54
Lynch FV HK$8.89 HK$12.70 HK$16.50 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.89 HK$12.70 HK$16.50 46
EPV HK$17.45 HK$20.74 HK$23.62 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.78 HK$14.10 HK$22.37 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.78 HK$11.47 HK$14.80 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$28.04 HK$37.39 HK$46.74 63
P/S Multiple HK$22.70 HK$30.27 HK$37.84 58
P/B Multiple HK$22.70 HK$30.27 HK$37.84 55
EV/EBIT HK$27.24 HK$37.08 HK$46.91 53
EV/EBITDA HK$39.70 HK$53.69 HK$67.68 54
EV/Revenue HK$18.79 HK$27.82 HK$36.84 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.94 HK$6.62 HK$9.88 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$28.31 HK$43.69 HK$65.96 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$21.33 HK$34.54 HK$49.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$11.56 HK$14.89 HK$45.07 76
ROIC Compounder HK$18.91 HK$24.83 HK$31.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$23.60 HK$33.72 HK$43.83 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$39.54) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$117B
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.0%
Net margin 9.3%
Return on equity 19.2%
Free cash flow HK$15.9B FY2025
P/E ratio 8.0
More key figures
Operating margin 13.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5500
Dividend yield 6.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +23.8%
Net debt HK$50.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services.

Full company description

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited, together with its subsidiaries, offers international passenger and air cargo transportation services. The company provides airline operations, including catering, cargo terminal operations, ground handling services, and commercial laundry operations, as well as scheduled services. The company operates in the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, the Americas, the Southeast Asia and the Oceania, Europe, the South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As of 31st December 2025, it operates 237 aircraft and 103 new passenger and freighter aircraft. Cathay Pacific Airways Limited was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Lantau Island, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported revenue of HK$117B in FY2025 versus HK$45.6B in FY2021, a compound +26.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.8B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$117B
Latest YoY
+11.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.0%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Revenue +26.5%/yr
FY21 HK$45.6B
FY22 HK$51.0B
FY23 HK$94.5B
FY24 HK$104B
FY25 HK$117B
Net income
FY21 −HK$5.5B
FY22 −HK$6.6B
FY23 HK$9.8B
FY24 HK$9.9B
FY25 HK$10.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +16.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.8 pp

of which total revenue +0.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +6.7 pp

EBIT margin +10.4 pp
Tax rate +0.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0293 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cathay Pacific Airways Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0293

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Airlines · 58 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −24% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.37× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.68× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 4.37× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 1 · sector 38
FUTURE 70 · sector 46
PAST 77 · sector 47
HEALTH 82 · sector 71
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.17 $118.24 +40%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.97 $175.62 +45%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $47.56 $14.76 -69%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,249 ₹3,704 -29%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.60 SGD 7.89 SGD +4%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.97 ¥7.16 +20%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $54.87 $106.79 +95%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA €8.57 €15.42 +80%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.99 ¥1.28 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.32 versus a price of HK$14.97, about −24% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0293?
Our model-based fair value for Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is HK$11.32 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$14.97.
What is the quality score of 0293?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293)?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$117B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0293?
The net profit margin of Cathay Pacific Airways Limited is about 9.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Cathay Pacific Airways Limited pay a dividend?
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.56% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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