United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of United Airlines Holdings Inc stock $149, price $110, upside +34.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.20 – $136.11 · fair‑value band $78.39 – $231.02 · the $110.49 price screens below the $148.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets.
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The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties.
In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs.
The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries.
The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) currently trades at $110.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.87, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $191.86 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $110.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.70, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $78.39 (bear) to $231.02 (bull), the price of $110.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
United Airlines Holdings Inc reported revenue of $59.1B in FY2025 versus $24.6B in FY2021, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $36.1B Large · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) $10.92 · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 35%, UAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$78.39Fair Value $148.87Bull$231.02
Price $110.49 · Upside +34.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleJ Scott KirbyChief Executive Officer, Director3× since Dec 3, 2025: 328,702 shares, avg. $114.82$37.7MJul 21, 2026
SaleKate GeboEVP HR and Labor Relations40,000 shares at $105.42$4.2MMay 26, 2026
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 42 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.4% vs 4.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−41% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business gains strength from technology upgrades that enhance the onboard experience and loyalty yet remains limited by a typical lack of durable moat in a high-capital-intensity sector with cyclical demand and high debt.
Main risk: Ultra-low-cost carriers such as Frontier Airlines could expand on overlapping routes and force United to lower economy fares or lose price-sensitive customers.
Bull case: United could leverage its premium cabins, Starlink upgrades and loyalty program to shift more passengers to higher-margin products while using data tools to optimize routes against ULCC pressure.
Bear case: If ULCCs and regulatory constraints intensify, United might lose significant economy traffic on domestic routes and face restricted hub operations, eroding overall margins and network scale.
United continues expanding Starlink-enabled seatback screens to deliver live MLB playoff games and other sports on hundreds of daily flights. This tech push aims to strengthen the onboard experience and loyalty in a high-cost, competitive airline environment. Will the added revenue from premium passengers cover the rollout expenses, or will it mainly help retain market share against peers?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+34.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $148.87 versus a price of $110.49, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UAL?
Our model-based fair value for United Airlines Holdings Inc is $148.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $110.49.
What is the quality score of UAL?
United Airlines Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $148.87 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $78.39, optimistic scenario $231.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Airlines Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $148.87, about +35% upside versus a price of $110.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $78.39, optimistic scenario $231.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
United Airlines Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $65.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Airlines Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UAL use?
Our models discount United Airlines Holdings Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Airlines Holdings Inc that is +9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at United Airlines Holdings Inc grew +30.9 % a year. The price currently implies +9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Airlines Holdings Inc (+9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.09 %: that much free cash flow United Airlines Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Airlines Holdings Inc it is $148.87 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $110.49. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Airlines Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, UAL trades below its calculated fair value: price $110.49, fair value $148.87, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($110.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($148.87). For United Airlines Holdings Inc the two are $38.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Airlines Holdings Inc worth?
The market values United Airlines Holdings Inc at about $36.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $110.49; our models calculate a fair value of $148.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UAL?
Our models span a range for United Airlines Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $78.39, base $148.87, optimistic $231.02 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $110.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UAL?
United Airlines Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $148.87 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.4. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 2.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of UAL?
The PEG ratio of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 4.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Airlines Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 22.3%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UAL from its 52-week high?
United Airlines Holdings Inc trades at $110.49, about 19% below its 52-week high of $136.11 and 30% above the low of $85.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $148.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Airlines Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Airlines Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $110.49, calculated fair value $148.87 (+35%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UAL calculated?
We run United Airlines Holdings Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $148.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. United Airlines Holdings Inc currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $110.49. Our model-based fair value is $148.87, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Airlines Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($78.39 to $231.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of United Airlines Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The market capitalisation of United Airlines Holdings Inc is $36.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Earnings per share at United Airlines Holdings Inc are $10.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The net margin of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 5.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
The operating margin of United Airlines Holdings Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Revenue at United Airlines Holdings Inc is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)?
Earnings per share at United Airlines Holdings Inc are growing +8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) carry?
The net debt of United Airlines Holdings Inc is $25.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026