United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $39.1B
United Airlines Holdings
UAL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $192.05 to $136.50 (−28.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $102.38 (bear) to $179.73 (bull), base $136.50. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.20 – $136.11 · fair‑value band $102.38 – $179.73 · the $129.12 price screens below the $136.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) currently trades at $129.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $136.50, implying the stock looks roughly 5.7% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Airlines Holdings generated revenue of $60.5B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.7%. Net debt stands at $25.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $102.38 (bear case) to $179.73 (bull case); at $129.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 6%, UAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($749.83) versus Asset-Based ($31.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets.
Full company description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties. In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs. The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Airlines Holdings reported revenue of $59.1B in FY2025 versus $24.6B in FY2021, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €9.98 | €15.60 | +56% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.66 | ¥14.20 | +288% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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