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Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €11.0B

DL Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA · XETRA
Price€8.56
Fair Value€18.94
Upside+121.3%
Quality43/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
3.60% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: High Range €14.18 – €23.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €20.31 to €18.94 (−6.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 121% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€14.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€10.09 €4.70 Fair Value €18.94 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.70 – €10.09 · fair‑value band €14.18 – €23.67 · the €8.56 price screens below the €18.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) currently trades at €8.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.94, implying the stock looks roughly 121.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Deutsche Lufthansa AG generated revenue of €40.3B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. Net debt stands at €13.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €14.18 (bear case) to €23.67 (bull case); at €8.56, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 121%, LHA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €8.86 €10.32 €19.86 76
Gordon GGM €2.74 €5.70 €9.05 70
Growth-Adj P/E €13.57 €19.39 €25.20 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €7.57 €22.04 €29.12 54
Lynch FV €4.58 €6.54 €8.50 50
PEG = 1.0 €4.58 €6.54 €8.50 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.74 €5.70 €9.05 70
DDM Multi-Stage €2.74 €4.41 €5.98 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €16.71 €22.28 €27.85 63
P/S Multiple €14.20 €18.94 €23.67 58
P/B Multiple €14.20 €18.94 €23.67 55
EV/EBIT €2.55 €5.66 €8.76 53
EV/EBITDA €19.18 €27.83 €36.47 54
EV/Revenue €2.20 €4.90 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.85 €6.49 €9.69 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €8.86 €10.32 €19.86 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €13.57 €19.39 €25.20 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€19.39) versus Dividend Discount (€4.41). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €40.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 13.7%
Free cash flow −€737M FY2025
P/E ratio 6.6
More key figures
Operating margin -11.0%
EPS (TTM) €1.30
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -55.8%
Net debt €13.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates as an aviation company in Europe, North America, Central and South America, Aisa/Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in three segments: Passenger Airlines; Logistics; and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO).

Full company description

Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates as an aviation company in Europe, North America, Central and South America, Aisa/Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in three segments: Passenger Airlines; Logistics; and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO). The Passenger Airlines segment offers products and services to passengers of Lufthansa Airlines, SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings. The Logistics segment provides airfreight container management, time-critical shipments, and customs clearance services; and digital and modular logistics solutions for cross-border e-commerce solutions. The MRO segment provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for civil commercial aircraft serving original equipment manufacturers, aircraft leasing companies, VIP jet operators, government, armed forces, and airlines. It also sells flight tickets and related ancillary services through agents, its own websites, or other airlines; offers vocational and professional training for cockpit and cabin crew; and IT solutions. The company operates a fleet of 737 aircraft. Deutsche Lufthansa AG was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Deutsche Lufthansa AG reported revenue of €39.6B in FY2025 versus €16.8B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was €1.3B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€39.6B
Latest YoY
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+23.8%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y)
+4.0%
Revenue +23.9%/yr
FY21 €16.8B
FY22 €30.9B
FY23 €35.4B
FY24 €37.6B
FY25 €39.6B
Net income
FY21 −€2.2B
FY22 €791M
FY23 €1.7B
FY24 €1.4B
FY25 €1.3B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Lufthansa AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LHA

Peer Group

Airlines · 60 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside +121% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -11% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.80× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.31× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.87× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 36
FUTURE 38 · sector 46
PAST 55 · sector 46
HEALTH 60 · sector 72
DIVIDEND 72 · sector 41

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.17 $118.24 +40%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.97 $175.62 +45%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $47.56 $14.76 -69%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,249 ₹3,704 -29%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.60 SGD 7.89 SGD +4%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.97 ¥7.16 +20%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $54.87 $106.79 +95%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.99 ¥1.28 -74%
China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 ¥3.66 ¥14.20 +288%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €18.94 versus a price of €8.56, about +121% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LHA?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Lufthansa AG is €18.94 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €8.56.
What is the quality score of LHA?
Deutsche Lufthansa AG has a Quality Score of 43/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA)?
Deutsche Lufthansa AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €40.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LHA?
The net profit margin of Deutsche Lufthansa AG is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Deutsche Lufthansa AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Lufthansa AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.96% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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