China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd HK$3.21, price HK$2.92, upside +10.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch China Southern Airlines Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.37 – HK$6.50 · fair‑value band HK$3.21 – HK$3.57 · the HK$2.92 price screens below the HK$3.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Follow China Southern Airlines Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether China Southern Airlines Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services.
Show more
China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other. The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services. It also provides online services, including seat and check-in, change/refund, flight status, pre-paid luggage, transfer accommodation, and meal booking. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. China Southern Airlines Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Southern Air Holding Company Limited.
Stock analysis
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055) currently trades at HK$2.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.21, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$18.50 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.92 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.6400, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.21 (bear) to HK$3.57 (bull), the price of HK$2.92 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd reported revenue of 182B CNY in FY2025 versus 102B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was 857M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$61.4B (≈ $7.8B) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0400 · Dividend yield 9.5% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 10%, 1055 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.21Fair Value HK$3.21Bull HK$3.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23.2% vs −17.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare China Southern Airlines Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−30.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.36× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1055
Frequently asked questions
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.21 versus a price of HK$2.92, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1055?
Our model-based fair value for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is HK$3.21 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.92.
What is the quality score of 1055?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.21 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.21, optimistic scenario HK$3.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Southern Airlines Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.21, about +10% upside versus a price of HK$2.92 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.21, optimistic scenario HK$3.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 187B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.46% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd it is HK$3.21 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$2.92. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 1055 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.92, fair value HK$3.21, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1055?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.21). For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd the two are HK$0.2915 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Southern Airlines Co Ltd at about HK$61.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.92; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1055?
Our models span a range for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.21, base HK$3.21, optimistic HK$3.57 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price HK$2.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1055?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 49.9 (reported for FY2025: 43.4). Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1055?
The PEG ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 0.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1055 from its 52-week high?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd trades at HK$2.92, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$6.50 and 1% above the low of HK$2.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Southern Airlines Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$2.92, calculated fair value HK$3.21 (+10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1055 calculated?
We run China Southern Airlines Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Southern Airlines Co Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$2.92. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.21, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Southern Airlines Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (HK$3.21 to HK$3.57), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is HK$61.4B (≈ $7.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 0.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd are HK$−0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 9.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
The operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Revenue at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055) generate?
The free cash flow of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 20.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055) carry?
The net debt of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 150B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch China Southern Airlines Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts China Southern Airlines Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
