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Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Towngas China Co Ltd HK$5.16, price HK$2.93, upside +76.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · HK · ISIN KYG8972T1067

TC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Towngas China Co Ltd

1083 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$5.16 · Strongly undervalued (+76.0%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!6.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$5.56 HK$2.26 Fair Value HK$5.16 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.26 – HK$5.56 · fair‑value band HK$3.86 – HK$6.44 · the HK$2.93 price screens below the HK$5.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited, an investment holding company, sells piped gas, renewable energy, and other types of energy in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Sales of Piped Gas Business; Gas Connection; Renewable Energy Business; and Extended Business.

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Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited, an investment holding company, sells piped gas, renewable energy, and other types of energy in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Sales of Piped Gas Business; Gas Connection; Renewable Energy Business; and Extended Business. It engages in the construction of gas pipelines; provision of photovoltaic power, and other related energy and services; sale of gas related household appliances; and other value-added services. The company also offers smart energy solutions, financing, and engineering works services, and upstream and midstream project services; provides natural gas distributed energy; engages in the procurement of natural gas sources; and operates vehicle gas refilling stations. The company was formerly known as Towngas China Company Limited and changed its name to Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited in December 2021. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong. Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Hong Kong & China Gas (China) Limited.

Stock analysis

Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) currently trades at HK$2.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.16, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$8.40 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$2.93 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$3.06, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$3.86 (bear) to HK$6.44 (bull), the price of HK$2.93 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Towngas China Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$20.9B in FY2025 versus HK$17.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.6B in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$11.5B (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3959 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 76%, 1083 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$3.86 Fair Value HK$5.16 Bull HK$6.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0150 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$5.21 HK$5.27 HK$5.61 76
Owner Earnings HK$0.7500 HK$3.06 HK$6.81 69
EPV n/a HK$0.1300 HK$0.3700 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$0.7500 HK$3.06 HK$6.81 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.94 HK$15.55 HK$21.54 63
Lynch FV HK$4.28 HK$6.12 HK$7.95 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$4.28 HK$6.12 HK$7.95 57
EPV n/a HK$0.1300 HK$0.3700 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.83 HK$7.77 HK$9.72 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.51 HK$7.34 HK$9.18 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.51 HK$7.34 HK$9.18 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.99 HK$3.40 HK$4.82 64
EV/EBITDA HK$3.27 HK$5.12 HK$6.96 66
EV/Revenue HK$1.18 HK$2.65 HK$4.12 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.50 HK$4.69 HK$7.01 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.21 HK$5.27 HK$5.61 76
ROIC Compounder n/a HK$0.1300 HK$0.3700 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$5.88 HK$8.40 HK$10.91 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.4% vs 1.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 103 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +76.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6.5% · Below median
Return on assets 1.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.45× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 74

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.10 €32.79 +13%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $157.21 $77.00 −51%
Uniper SE UN0 €45.25 €45.97 +2%
NiSource Inc NI $39.42 $19.90 −50%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.08 HK$4.79 −32%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹172.70 ₹132.97 −23%
Italgas S.p.A IG €8.35 €9.19 +10%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥18.54 ¥36.99 +100%
UGI Corporation UGI $36.24 $32.74 −10%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$48.76 HK$107.85 +121%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Towngas China Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1083

Frequently asked questions

Is Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.16 versus a price of HK$2.93, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1083?
Our model-based fair value for Towngas China Co Ltd is HK$5.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.93.
What is the quality score of 1083?
Towngas China Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$5.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.86, optimistic scenario HK$6.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Towngas China Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$5.16, about +76% upside versus a price of HK$2.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.86, optimistic scenario HK$6.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Towngas China Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Towngas China Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Towngas China Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Towngas China Co Ltd it is HK$5.16 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.93. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Towngas China Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1083 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.93, fair value HK$5.16, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1083?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$5.16). For Towngas China Co Ltd the two are HK$2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Towngas China Co Ltd worth?
The market values Towngas China Co Ltd at about HK$11.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.93; our models calculate a fair value of HK$5.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1083?
Our models span a range for Towngas China Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.86, base HK$5.16, optimistic HK$6.44 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1083?
Towngas China Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$5.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Balance-sheet figures for Towngas China Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1083 from its 52-week high?
Towngas China Co Ltd trades at HK$2.93, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$3.93 and 3% above the low of HK$2.85 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$5.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Towngas China Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Towngas China Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.93, calculated fair value HK$5.16 (+76%), Quality Score 36/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1083 calculated?
We run Towngas China Co Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$5.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Towngas China Co Ltd currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$2.93. Our model-based fair value is HK$5.16, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Towngas China Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) come from?
Earnings per share at Towngas China Co Ltd grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Towngas China Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The market capitalisation of Towngas China Co Ltd is HK$11.5B (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Towngas China Co Ltd is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Earnings per share at Towngas China Co Ltd are HK$0.3959 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The dividend yield of Towngas China Co Ltd is 6.5% (payout 48.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The net margin of Towngas China Co Ltd is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Towngas China Co Ltd is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Towngas China Co Ltd is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
The operating margin of Towngas China Co Ltd is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Revenue at Towngas China Co Ltd is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Towngas China Co Ltd (1083)?
Earnings per share at Towngas China Co Ltd are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) generate?
The free cash flow of Towngas China Co Ltd is −HK$575M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Towngas China Co Ltd (1083) carry?
The net debt of Towngas China Co Ltd is HK$14.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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