Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Tibet Water Resources Ltd HK$0.20, price HK$0.53, upside -61.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2050 – HK$0.9735 · fair‑value band HK$0.1530 – HK$0.2550 · the HK$0.5300 price screens above the HK$0.2040 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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5100 Xizang Glacier Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of water and beer products in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Water Business and Beer Business segments.
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5100 Xizang Glacier Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of water and beer products in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Water Business and Beer Business segments. The Water Business segment manufactures and sells a range of water products through wholesales under the 5100 Glacial Water brand name; sells raw materials and consumables to associates and third parties; and leases production lines. The Beer segment offers various beer products through wholesales under the Highland Barley Beer brand name. The company also engages in the marketing, promotion, distribution, and retailing of water products; import and distribution of food; provision of lending services; manufacturing and distribution of caps and other raw materials and consumables; and operations and management of the water products market. The company was formerly known as Tibet Water Resources Ltd. and changed its name to 5100 Xizang Glacier Company Limited in October 2025. 5100 Xizang Glacier Company Limited was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) currently trades at HK$0.5300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2040, 61.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4100 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.5300 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1500, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1530 (bear) to HK$0.2550 (bull), the price of HK$0.5300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tibet Water Resources Ltd reported revenue of 358M CNY in FY2025 versus 456M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.9%/yr. Reported net income was 86.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.6B (≈ $331M) · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 4.88 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 24.1% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin 21.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −62%, 1115 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1530Fair Value HK$0.2040Bull HK$0.2550
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+58.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.7% vs −17.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.8% a year for the price.
Compare Tibet Water Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−61.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth117.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B0.77× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF25.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tibet Water Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1115
Frequently asked questions
Is Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2040 versus a price of HK$0.5300, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1115?
Our model-based fair value for Tibet Water Resources Ltd is HK$0.2040 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.5300.
What is the quality score of 1115?
Tibet Water Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2040 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.2550. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tibet Water Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2040, about −62% upside versus a price of HK$0.5300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1530, optimistic scenario HK$0.2550. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Tibet Water Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 358M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tibet Water Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1115 use?
Our models discount Tibet Water Resources Ltd at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tibet Water Resources Ltd that is +24.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tibet Water Resources Ltd grew -6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +24.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tibet Water Resources Ltd (+24.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.95 %: that much free cash flow Tibet Water Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tibet Water Resources Ltd it is HK$0.2040 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.5300. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tibet Water Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1115 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.5300, fair value HK$0.2040, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1115?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.5300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2040). For Tibet Water Resources Ltd the two are HK$0.3260 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tibet Water Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Tibet Water Resources Ltd at about HK$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.5300; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2040 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1115?
Our models span a range for Tibet Water Resources Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1530, base HK$0.2040, optimistic HK$0.2550 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.5300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1115?
Tibet Water Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2040 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 20.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tibet Water Resources Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1115 from its 52-week high?
Tibet Water Resources Ltd trades at HK$0.5300, about 26% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7200 and 36% above the low of HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2040 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tibet Water Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tibet Water Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.5300, calculated fair value HK$0.2040 (−62%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1115 calculated?
We run Tibet Water Resources Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2040, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tibet Water Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.5300. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2040, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tibet Water Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2550). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Tibet Water Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The market capitalisation of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is HK$2.6B (≈ $331M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is 4.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Earnings per share at Tibet Water Resources Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The net margin of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is 24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
The operating margin of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Revenue at Tibet Water Resources Ltd is growing +118% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115)?
Earnings per share at Tibet Water Resources Ltd are growing +284% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tibet Water Resources Ltd (1115) carry?
The net debt of Tibet Water Resources Ltd is 562M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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