Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Wynn Macau Ltd HK$7.38, price HK$5.34, upside +38.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.59 – HK$11.55 · fair‑value band HK$5.17 – HK$9.60 · the HK$5.34 price screens below the HK$7.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Wynn Macau, Limited owns, develops, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau.
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Wynn Macau, Limited owns, develops, and operates integrated destination casino resorts in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. It offers table games and slot machines or similar gaming devices; 24-hour gaming services; a range of games comprising private gaming salons and sky casinos; a hotel with rooms, suites, and villas; operates food and beverage outlets; a food hall, which includes a variety of stand-alone restaurants and other food offerings; brand-name retail shopping arenas; recreation and leisure facilities, including a cable car ride through SkyCab, health club, spa, salon, and pool; and a meeting and convention spaces. The company also provides poker pit games and public entertainment attractions, including a performance lake and rotunda show featuring a Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling along with gold tree of prosperity. In addition, it is involved in the development, design, and preconstruction activities and offers technical consultancy, administrative, and management and support services. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau. Wynn Macau, Limited operates as a subsidiary of WM Cayman Holdings Limited I.
Stock analysis
Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) currently trades at HK$5.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.38, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$13.37 per share, and 15 of the 21 models we run sit above the HK$5.34 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$4.88, and 6 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.17 (bear) to HK$9.60 (bull), the price of HK$5.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Wynn Macau Ltd reported revenue of HK$29.0B in FY2025 versus HK$11.7B in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$30.7B (≈ $3.9B) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1600 · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 38%, 1128 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.17Fair Value HK$7.38Bull HK$9.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.4% vs −3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−71% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (76 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+38.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG0.37× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)84· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)72· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 59
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.38 versus a price of HK$5.34, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1128?
Our model-based fair value for Wynn Macau Ltd is HK$7.38 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.34.
What is the quality score of 1128?
Wynn Macau Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.38 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.17, optimistic scenario HK$9.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wynn Macau Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.38, about +38% upside versus a price of HK$5.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.17, optimistic scenario HK$9.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Wynn Macau Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$31.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Wynn Macau Ltd pay a dividend?
Wynn Macau Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.35% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wynn Macau Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.7 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1128 use?
Our models discount Wynn Macau Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wynn Macau Ltd that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wynn Macau Ltd grew +30.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wynn Macau Ltd (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.68 %: that much free cash flow Wynn Macau Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wynn Macau Ltd it is HK$7.38 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$5.34. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wynn Macau Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1128 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.34, fair value HK$7.38, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1128?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.38). For Wynn Macau Ltd the two are HK$2.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wynn Macau Ltd worth?
The market values Wynn Macau Ltd at about HK$30.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1128?
Our models span a range for Wynn Macau Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.17, base HK$7.38, optimistic HK$9.60 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$5.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1128?
Wynn Macau Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.38 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.8 (reported for FY2025: 17.2). Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 1128?
The PEG ratio of Wynn Macau Ltd is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wynn Macau Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1128 from its 52-week high?
Wynn Macau Ltd trades at HK$5.34, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$6.67 and 12% above the low of HK$4.79 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wynn Macau Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wynn Macau Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$5.34, calculated fair value HK$7.38 (+38%), Quality Score 46/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1128 calculated?
We run Wynn Macau Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Wynn Macau Ltd currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$5.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.38, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wynn Macau Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.17 to HK$9.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) come from?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau Ltd grew −6.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wynn Macau Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The market capitalisation of Wynn Macau Ltd is HK$30.7B (≈ $3.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wynn Macau Ltd is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau Ltd are HK$0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The dividend yield of Wynn Macau Ltd is 8.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The net margin of Wynn Macau Ltd is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wynn Macau Ltd is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
The operating margin of Wynn Macau Ltd is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Revenue at Wynn Macau Ltd is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +72.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wynn Macau Ltd (1128)?
Earnings per share at Wynn Macau Ltd are growing +552% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Wynn Macau Ltd (1128) carry?
The net debt of Wynn Macau Ltd is HK$38.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 1, 2026