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Vail Resorts, Inc (MTN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.8B

Price$142.39
Fair Value$124.47
Upside-12.6%
Quality87/100
Evidence: Medium Range $53.43 – $216.09

Analysis

Vail Resorts, Inc (MTN) currently trades at $142.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $124.47 — implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 87/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

About the company

Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. Its lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.