Vail Resorts, Inc (MTN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.4B
Vail Resorts, Inc
MTN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $124.47 to $125.02 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($53.43 to $216.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $117.19 – $301.81 · fair‑value band $53.43 – $216.09 · the $148.83 price screens above the $125.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Vail Resorts, Inc (MTN) currently trades at $148.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.02, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vail Resorts, Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue declined 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.6%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $53.43 (bear case) to $216.09 (bull case); at $148.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -16%, MTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($139.28) versus Asset-Based ($7.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.
Full company description
Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. Its lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vail Resorts, Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $280M in FY2025, compounding +21.7%/yr from FY2021.
MTN screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vail Resorts (MTN) Following New Board Appointment Is The Stock Fairly Valued
- Cloudflare CEO slams Vail Resorts’ Hornbuckle pick amid $500M Park City bid
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| MGM China Holdings 2282 | HK$11.36 | HK$24.07 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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