Red Rock Resorts, Inc (RRR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.6B
Red Rock Resorts, Inc
RRR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $19.59 to $17.09 (−12.8%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price −2.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 72% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($16.40 to $43.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.07 – $67.26 · fair‑value band $16.40 – $43.39 · the $61.88 price screens above the $17.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Red Rock Resorts, Inc (RRR) currently trades at $61.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.09, implying the stock looks roughly 72.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Red Rock Resorts, Inc generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 114.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $84.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.40 (bear case) to $43.39 (bull case); at $61.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -72%, RRR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($40.33) versus Asset-Based ($1.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Casinos LLC, develops and manages casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities, including Durango Casino & Resort and smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market. The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp.
Full company description
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Casinos LLC, develops and manages casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities, including Durango Casino & Resort and smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market. The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp. and changed its name to Red Rock Resorts, Inc. in January 2016. Red Rock Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Red Rock Resorts, Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
RRR screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Did In-Line Forecasts Amid a 5.2% Revenue Dip Quietly Reframe Red Rock Resorts' (RRR) Earnings Story?
- Red Rock Resorts Earnings: What To Look For From RRR
- Analysts Estimate Red Rock Resorts (RRR) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
| MGM China Holdings 2282 | HK$11.36 | HK$24.07 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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