Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Red Rock Resorts Inc $18.01, price $50.90, upside -64.6%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Red Rock Resorts Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.07 – $67.26 · fair‑value band $11.86 – $43.39 · the $50.90 price screens above the $18.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Red Rock Resorts in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Red Rock Resorts is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Casinos LLC, develops and manages casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities, including Durango Casino & Resort and smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market. The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp.
Show more
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Casinos LLC, develops and manages casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities, including Durango Casino & Resort and smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market. The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp. and changed its name to Red Rock Resorts, Inc. in January 2016. Red Rock Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) currently trades at $50.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.01, implying the stock looks roughly 182.6% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $40.33 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $50.90 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.05, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.86 (bear) to $43.39 (bull), the price of $50.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Red Rock Resorts Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 1.75 · EPS (TTM) $3.10 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 114% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at −65%, RRR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.86Fair Value $18.01Bull $43.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs −4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 67 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)114% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity16.22× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B31.49× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)3.25× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF22.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.69× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)10· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Rock Resorts Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RRR
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.01 versus a price of $50.90, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RRR?
Our model-based fair value for Red Rock Resorts Inc is $18.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.90.
What is the quality score of RRR?
Red Rock Resorts Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.86, optimistic scenario $43.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Rock Resorts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.01, about −65% upside versus a price of $50.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.86, optimistic scenario $43.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Red Rock Resorts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Red Rock Resorts Inc pay a dividend?
Red Rock Resorts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Rock Resorts Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RRR use?
Our models discount Red Rock Resorts Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Rock Resorts Inc that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Rock Resorts Inc grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Rock Resorts Inc (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.53 %: that much free cash flow Red Rock Resorts Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Rock Resorts Inc it is $18.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $50.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RRR trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.90, fair value $18.01, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RRR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.01). For Red Rock Resorts Inc the two are $32.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Rock Resorts Inc worth?
The market values Red Rock Resorts Inc at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $50.90; our models calculate a fair value of $18.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RRR?
Our models span a range for Red Rock Resorts Inc: cautious scenario $11.86, base $18.01, optimistic $43.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $50.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RRR?
Red Rock Resorts Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 31.5, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of RRR?
The PEG ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 1.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Rock Resorts Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 114.2%, debt of 16.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RRR from its 52-week high?
Red Rock Resorts Inc trades at $50.90, about 24% below its 52-week high of $67.26 and 4% above the low of $48.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Rock Resorts Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $50.90, calculated fair value $18.01 (−65%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RRR calculated?
We run Red Rock Resorts Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Red Rock Resorts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $50.90. Our model-based fair value is $18.01, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Rock Resorts Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($11.86 to $43.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) come from?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc grew −6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.4 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +4.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Red Rock Resorts Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The market capitalisation of Red Rock Resorts Inc is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 1.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc are $3.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The dividend yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 2.0% (payout 32.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The net margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 114% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The operating margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Revenue at Red Rock Resorts Inc is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc are growing −2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) hold?
Red Rock Resorts Inc holds more cash than debt, $84.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Red Rock Resorts Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Red Rock Resorts Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026