Sands China Ltd (1928) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$106B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +10.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$3.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$1.36 to HK$3.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$12.06 – HK$37.82 · fair‑value band HK$1.36 – HK$3.13 · the HK$14.48 price screens above the HK$2.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Sands China Ltd (1928) currently trades at HK$14.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.05, implying the stock looks roughly 85.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sands China Ltd generated revenue of HK$7.4B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 73.7%. Net debt stands at HK$5.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.36 (bear case) to HK$3.13 (bull case); at HK$14.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -86%, 1928 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.98) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company owns and operates The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao resort, The Plaza Macao, and The Sands Macao casino; the Cotai Expo, a convention and exhibition hall; and The Venetian and The Londoner Arena, an entertainment venues, as well as …
Full company description
Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company owns and operates The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao resort, The Plaza Macao, and The Sands Macao casino; the Cotai Expo, a convention and exhibition hall; and The Venetian and The Londoner Arena, an entertainment venues, as well as Cotai Water Jet ferry for leisure and business travelers. It offers ferry transportation and leasing services, and pontoon leasing; gaming and other related activities; travel and tourism agency services; security services; and human resources administration services, as well as outsourcing services, including information technology, accounting, hotel management, and marketing. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau. Sands China Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sands China Ltd reported revenue of HK$7.4B in FY2025 versus HK$2.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$896M in FY2025.
1928 screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- '2026 Sands Shopping Carnival' Continues Driving Community Impact
- 2026 Sands Shopping Carnival Attracted Nearly 160,000 Visits in Four Days
- Las Vegas Sands Bets on Premium Travel Through a Massive Upgrade Cycle
- Sands China Holds 'Sands Cares Global Food Kit Build' for Fifth Consecutive Year
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6150 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +12% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
| MGM China Holdings 2282 | HK$11.36 | HK$24.07 | +112% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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