Sands China Ltd (1928) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sands China Ltd stock HK$18.87, price HK$11.32, upside +66.7%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 40% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value HK$18.87 · Strongly undervalued (40%)
Quality 71/100
Solidly profitable · 11.3% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
8.8% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(12/15)
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 17% above the price (HK$13.21).
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +34.6 %/yr in USD)
Wide moat65/100 · thin data
High debt
⚠ Small free float
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Tighter capital outflows from China🚩Macau concession review or expiry🚩Rivals gaining mass and premium mass share🚩Dependence on mainland Chinese visitors
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$10.48 – HK$31.52 · fair‑value band HK$13.21 – HK$24.53 · the HK$11.32 price screens below the HK$18.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts and casinos in Macao.
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The company owns and operates The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao resort, The Plaza Macao, and The Sands Macao casino; the Cotai Expo, a convention and exhibition hall; and The Venetian and The Londoner Arena, an entertainment venues, as well as Cotai Water Jet ferry for leisure and business travelers.
It offers ferry transportation and leasing services, and pontoon leasing; gaming and other related activities; travel and tourism agency services; security services; and human resources administration services, as well as outsourcing services, including information technology, accounting, hotel management, and marketing.
The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Macau. Sands China Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Stock analysis
Sands China Ltd (1928) currently trades at HK$11.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.87, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$28.35 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$11.32 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$7.49, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$13.21 (bear) to HK$24.53 (bull), the price of HK$11.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sands China Ltd reported revenue of $7.4B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $896M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$91.6B (≈ $11.7B) Large · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 1.52 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 73.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1928 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$13.21Fair Value HK$18.87BullHK$24.53
Price HK$11.32 · Upside +66.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.1% vs −4.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−73% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.4% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Mass-market gains and rising share provide the main strength while elevated leverage and soft premium segments form the key weakness.
Main risk: Periodic performance reviews or the 2032 concession expiry could lead to stricter terms, reduced operations or non-renewal for Sands China as one of six operators under Macau law.
Bull case: Sands China could leverage its scale, smart table data analytics and integrated resort cluster to capture more mass market share and diversify into non-gaming offerings while maintaining compliance to secure concession extensions.
Bear case: If regulatory reviews tighten terms or rivals accelerate share gains amid softer Chinese visitor flows, Sands China's volumes and margins could face sustained pressure, limiting growth in its core Macau operations.
Sands China is refinancing near-term debt with longer-maturity notes while Macau volumes hold up in mass gaming and market share rises. High-end segments remain soft and operating costs are up. Our models see the business as undervalued. Will the mass-market gains outweigh the drag from premium weakness over the next few years?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+66.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)73.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sands China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1928
Frequently asked questions
Is Sands China Ltd (1928) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.87 versus a price of HK$11.32, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1928?
Our model-based fair value for Sands China Ltd is HK$18.87 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$11.32.
What is the quality score of 1928?
Sands China Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$18.87 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$13.21, optimistic scenario HK$24.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sands China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$18.87, about +67% upside versus a price of HK$11.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$13.21, optimistic scenario HK$24.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Sands China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Sands China Ltd pay a dividend?
Sands China Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 8.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sands China Ltd (1928)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sands China Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1928 use?
Our models discount Sands China Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sands China Ltd that is -4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sands China Ltd (1928) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sands China Ltd grew +34.6 % a year. The price currently implies -4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sands China Ltd (1928) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sands China Ltd (-4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.37 %: that much free cash flow Sands China Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sands China Ltd it is HK$18.87 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of HK$11.32. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sands China Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 1928 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$11.32, fair value HK$18.87, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1928?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$11.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$18.87). For Sands China Ltd the two are HK$7.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sands China Ltd worth?
The market values Sands China Ltd at about HK$91.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$11.32; our models calculate a fair value of HK$18.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1928?
Our models span a range for Sands China Ltd: cautious scenario HK$13.21, base HK$18.87, optimistic HK$24.53 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price HK$11.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1928?
Sands China Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$18.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 8.3, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 1928?
The PEG ratio of Sands China Ltd is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sands China Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 73.2%, debt of 4.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1928 from its 52-week high?
Sands China Ltd trades at HK$11.32, about 47% below its 52-week high of HK$21.19 and 8% above the low of HK$10.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$18.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sands China Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Wynn Resorts, Limited, MGM Resorts International, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sands China Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price HK$11.32, calculated fair value HK$18.87 (+67%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1928 calculated?
We run Sands China Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$18.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Sands China Ltd currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$11.32. Our model-based fair value is HK$18.87, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sands China Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$13.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (71/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$13.21 to HK$24.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sands China Ltd (1928) come from?
Earnings per share at Sands China Ltd grew −7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.9 %, EBIT margin −3.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sands China Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The market capitalisation of Sands China Ltd is HK$91.6B (≈ $11.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sands China Ltd is 1.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The dividend yield of Sands China Ltd is 8.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The net margin of Sands China Ltd is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sands China Ltd is 73.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sands China Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sands China Ltd (1928)?
The operating margin of Sands China Ltd is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Revenue at Sands China Ltd is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +66.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sands China Ltd (1928)?
Earnings per share at Sands China Ltd are growing −3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sands China Ltd (1928) carry?
The net debt of Sands China Ltd is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026