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Lumina Group Ltd (1162) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Lumina Group Ltd HK$0.11, price HK$0.24, upside -53.8%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG569821047

LG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Lumina Group Ltd

1162 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1100 · Strongly overvalued (−53.8%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −21.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -28.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.4350 HK$0.1020 Fair Value HK$0.1100 Sep 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1020 – HK$0.4350 · fair‑value band HK$0.0700 – HK$0.1400 · the HK$0.2380 price screens above the HK$0.1100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Fire Safety System Installation Services; Repair and Maintenance Services; and Production of Short Videos and Animation segments.

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Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Fire Safety System Installation Services; Repair and Maintenance Services; and Production of Short Videos and Animation segments. It offers services related to the design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance services in fire safety systems. The company also trades in equity securities. It serves property owners and tenants, construction contractors, property managers, government-related organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong. Lumina Group Limited is a subsidiary of Foxfire Limited.

Stock analysis

Lumina Group Ltd (1162) currently trades at HK$0.2380, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1100, 53.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0700 (bear) to HK$0.1400 (bull), the price of HK$0.2380 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Lumina Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$32.4M in FY2025 versus HK$57.6M in FY2021, a compound −13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$13.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$143M (≈ $18.2M) · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0200 · Net margin −42.0% · Return on equity −21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.4% · Operating margin −11.3% · Revenue (TTM) HK$45.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −54%, 1162 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0700 Fair Value HK$0.1100 Bull HK$0.1400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
23.0% (2019) → −59.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

1162 screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with Allegion plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 110 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −53.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −28.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −11.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 91.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.40× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Allegion plc ALLE $154.47 $129.15 −16%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥15.54 ¥31.47 +103%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $182.32 $121.15 −34%
ADT Inc ADT $6.40 $19.40 +203%
The Brink's Company BCO $106.82 $121.18 +13%
The GEO Group GEO $31.22 $13.08 −58%
Brady Corporation BRC $84.02 $84.37 +0%
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 561.00 kr 496.43 −12%
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $31.69 $18.76 −41%
S-1 Corporation 012750 83,300 KRW 99,629 KRW +20%

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Lumina Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1100 −54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lumina Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1162

Frequently asked questions

Is Lumina Group Ltd (1162) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1100 versus a price of HK$0.2380, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1162?
Our model-based fair value for Lumina Group Ltd is HK$0.1100 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2380.
What is the quality score of 1162?
Lumina Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1100 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lumina Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1100, about −54% upside versus a price of HK$0.2380 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0700, optimistic scenario HK$0.1400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Lumina Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$45.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lumina Group Ltd it is HK$0.1100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2380. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lumina Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1162 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2380, fair value HK$0.1100, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1162?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2380); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1100). For Lumina Group Ltd the two are HK$0.1280 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lumina Group Ltd worth?
The market values Lumina Group Ltd at about HK$143M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2380; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1162?
Our models span a range for Lumina Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0700, base HK$0.1100, optimistic HK$0.1400 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2380). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lumina Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1162 from its 52-week high?
Lumina Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2380, about 8% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2600 and 40% above the low of HK$0.1700 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lumina Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, ADT Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lumina Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2380, calculated fair value HK$0.1100 (−54%), Quality Score 53/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1162 calculated?
We run Lumina Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Lumina Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2380. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1100, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lumina Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0700 to HK$0.1400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Lumina Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The market capitalisation of Lumina Group Ltd is HK$143M (≈ $18.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lumina Group Ltd is 2.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Earnings per share at Lumina Group Ltd are HK$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The net margin of Lumina Group Ltd is −42.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lumina Group Ltd is −21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lumina Group Ltd is −15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The operating margin of Lumina Group Ltd is −11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Revenue at Lumina Group Ltd is growing +91.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Earnings per share at Lumina Group Ltd are growing +138% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lumina Group Ltd (1162) generate?
The free cash flow of Lumina Group Ltd is −HK$1.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lumina Group Ltd (1162) hold?
Lumina Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$16.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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