Lumina Group Ltd (1162) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lumina Group Ltd stock HK$0.07, price HK$0.22, that is 67.4% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1020 – HK$0.4350 · fair‑value band HK$0.0500 – HK$0.0900 · the HK$0.2150 price screens above the HK$0.0700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Fire Safety System Installation Services; Repair and Maintenance Services; and Production of Short Videos and Animation segments.
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It offers services related to the design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance services in fire safety systems.
The company also trades in equity securities. It serves property owners and tenants, construction contractors, property managers, government-related organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong.
Lumina Group Limited is a subsidiary of Foxfire Limited.
Stock analysis
Lumina Group Ltd (1162) currently trades at HK$0.2150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0700, 67% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1400 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$0.2150 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0500 (bear) to HK$0.0900 (bull), the price of HK$0.2150 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lumina Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$68.1M in FY2026 versus HK$78.3M in FY2022, a compound −3.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.5M in FY2026, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$128M (≈ $16.3M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.83 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$68.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +125%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −67%, 1162 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.0500Fair Value HK$0.0700BullHK$0.0900
Price HK$0.2150 · Downside -67.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+110.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−29.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29.6% vs −18.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.1%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lumina Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1162
Frequently asked questions
Is Lumina Group Ltd (1162) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0700 versus a price of HK$0.2150, about 67% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1162?
Our model-based fair value for Lumina Group Ltd is HK$0.0700 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2150.
What is the quality score of 1162?
Lumina Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0700 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0500, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lumina Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0700, about 67% lower versus a price of HK$0.2150 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0500, optimistic scenario HK$0.0900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Lumina Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$68.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lumina Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by 7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 3.4 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1162 use?
Our models discount Lumina Group Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lumina Group Ltd that is +7.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lumina Group Ltd (1162) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lumina Group Ltd grew 3.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lumina Group Ltd (1162) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lumina Group Ltd (+7.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.55 %: that much free cash flow Lumina Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lumina Group Ltd it is HK$0.0700 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2150. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lumina Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 1162 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2150, fair value HK$0.0700, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1162?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0700). For Lumina Group Ltd the two are HK$0.1450 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lumina Group Ltd worth?
The market values Lumina Group Ltd at about HK$128M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2150; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1162?
Our models span a range for Lumina Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0500, base HK$0.0700, optimistic HK$0.0900 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price HK$0.2150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lumina Group Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 2.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1162 from its 52-week high?
Lumina Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2150, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2600 and 26% above the low of HK$0.1700 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lumina Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lumina Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price HK$0.2150, calculated fair value HK$0.0700 (−67%), Quality Score 78/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1162 calculated?
We run Lumina Group Ltd through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.0700 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Lumina Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.2150. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0700, about 67% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lumina Group Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Lumina Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The market capitalisation of Lumina Group Ltd is HK$128M (≈ $16.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lumina Group Ltd is 1.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The net margin of Lumina Group Ltd is 2.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lumina Group Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lumina Group Ltd is −15.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
The operating margin of Lumina Group Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Revenue at Lumina Group Ltd is growing 125% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lumina Group Ltd (1162)?
Earnings per share at Lumina Group Ltd are growing 138% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lumina Group Ltd (1162) hold?
Lumina Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$25.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 13, 2026