Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd (1182) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$273M (≈ $34.8M) · ISIN BMG8551N1166

What is Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd really worth?

SD Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd 1182 · HK

PriceHK$0.6650

Fair ValueHK$3.90

Upside+486.5%

Quality57/100

A solid business, trading 83% below our fair value of HK$3.90.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd is HK$3.90 per share against a price of HK$0.6650, so the fair value sits 486% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin

✓Ranks above peers (10/11)

✓Wide moat 68/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +34.2 %/yr)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

Evidence: Low Range HK$2.96 – HK$4.85

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Share price −0.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1200 – HK$1.47 · fair‑value band HK$2.96 – HK$4.85 · the HK$0.6650 price screens below the HK$3.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd (1182) currently trades at HK$0.6650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.90, implying the stock looks roughly 82.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$6.92 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.6650 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4000, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$373M at a net margin of 10.1%. It earns a return on equity of 28.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$45.7M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.0. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.96 (bear case) to HK$4.85 (bull case); at HK$0.6650, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 486%, 1182 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0479 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

EPV HK$1.66 HK$1.84 HK$1.99 74

Owner Earnings HK$1.83 HK$3.44 HK$6.23 73

ROIC Compounder HK$1.91 HK$2.41 HK$3.00 72

All 15 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings HK$1.83 HK$3.44 HK$6.23 73

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$1.45 HK$10.15 HK$14.24 63

Lynch FV HK$3.69 HK$5.27 HK$6.85 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$3.69 HK$5.27 HK$6.85 57

EPV HK$1.66 HK$1.84 HK$1.99 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$3.53 HK$4.71 HK$5.88 63

P/S Multiple HK$2.02 HK$2.69 HK$3.36 58

P/B Multiple HK$1.79 HK$2.39 HK$2.98 55

EV/EBIT HK$4.24 HK$5.59 HK$6.95 66

EV/EBITDA HK$3.00 HK$3.94 HK$4.88 67

EV/Revenue HK$2.05 HK$2.86 HK$3.66 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 HK$0.6000 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$1.18 HK$1.69 HK$11.57 58

ROIC Compounder HK$1.91 HK$2.41 HK$3.00 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.84 HK$6.92 HK$8.99 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$6.92) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.4000). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.0

P/S ratio 0.58 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.1100 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0

Net margin 9.5% FY2026

Return on equity 28.1% TTM

Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% avg 5y

More key figures

Profitability

Operating margin 11.3% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$373M TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +349% 3y avg +28.0%

EPS growth (YoY) +161%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow −HK$2.0M FY2025

Net cash HK$45.7M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 82

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 71

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 10

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 67

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 31

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 46

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 59

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 70

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Success Dragon International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in processing and trading of gold and precious metals in Hong Kong, Macau, and the People's Republic of China. The company is involved in the extraction of gold and other precious metals from gold-laden carbon and gold ore.

Full company description

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$764M in FY2026 versus HK$182M in FY2022, a compound +43.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$72.9M in FY2026, compounding +144.8%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 60/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2026)

HK$764M

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+28.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+34.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.3%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +73.2% (approximate, leans on 2026) · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+73.2%

Dividend yield0.0%

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3.8% (2021) → 13.4% (2026) · rising

Worst earnings drop52% (2023) · in HKD

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

⚠ Rate leans on 2026: that final year sits 1,110% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted

Revenue +43.1%/yr

FY22 HK$182M

FY23 HK$364M

FY24 HK$423M

FY25 HK$125M

FY26 HK$764M

Net income +144.8%/yr

FY22 HK$2.0M

FY23 HK$816K

FY24 HK$6.2M

FY25 HK$8.5M

FY26 HK$72.9M

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Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$3.90 +83%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1182.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$3.90</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+83%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1182.HK

Peer Group

Gold · 244 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 28% · Top 25%

Return on assets 13% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Below median

Revenue growth 349% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 1.34× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.73× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 3.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE100 · sector 100

PAST100 · sector 1

HEALTH100 · sector 98

DIVIDEND0 · sector 20

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL	$128.00	$112.82	−12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899	¥32.21	¥39.42	+22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM	C$268.76	C$213.40	−21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B	$41.23	$50.66	+23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV	$266.18	$96.63	−64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM	C$201.40	C$56.05	−72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU	$97.92	$88.63	−9%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC	$30.87	$34.62	+12%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD	$262.85	$93.56	−64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST	A$23.19	A$15.98	−31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd (1182) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.90 versus a price of HK$0.6650, about +486% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1182?

Our model-based fair value for Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd is HK$3.90 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6650.

What is the quality score of 1182?

Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd (1182)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.90 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.96, optimistic scenario HK$4.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$3.90, about +486% upside versus a price of HK$0.6650 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.96, optimistic scenario HK$4.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd (1182)?

Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$373M (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1182?

The net profit margin of Success Dragon International Holdings Ltd is about 10.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

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