Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd TWD 192, price TWD 175, upside +10.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hi-Lai Foods Co., Ltd operates restaurants in Taiwan.
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Hi-Lai Foods Co., Ltd operates restaurants in Taiwan. It operates restaurants under the Hanlai Harbor, Island language, Hanlai vegetarian food, Hanlai Celebrity Hall, Dongfanglou, Gathering Place, Gathering Place, Hanlai Shanghai Soup Dumplings, Liuliu Sauerkraut Fish Specialty Store, Peking duck specialty store, Cuiyuan Cantonese Restaurant, Leshu, Hanlaixuan, flame, PAVO Restaurant & Bistro, Exquisite Seafood Hot Pot, Japanese Cuisine Benkei, Fu Yuan Taiwanese Seafood Restaurant, HI-LAI CAFÉ, Cake Shop, Daily Bakery, Kaohsiung Grand Lounge, Taipei Grand Lounge names. The company is also involved in wholesale and retail of aquatic products and food groceries, and professional investment business. Hi-Lai Foods Co., Ltd was founded in 1992 and is based in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) currently trades at 174.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 191.95 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 233.94 TWD per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 174.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 36.55 TWD, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 138.22 TWD (bear) to 252.88 TWD (bull), the price of 174.50 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.9B TWD in FY2021, a compound +20.7%/yr. Reported net income was 427M TWD in FY2025, compounding +54.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 7.4B TWD (≈ $231M) · P/E ratio 17.3 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) 10.10 TWD · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 10%, 1268 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 138.22 TWDFair Value 191.95 TWDBull 252.88 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.54 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1268
Frequently asked questions
Is Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 191.95 TWD versus a price of 174.50 TWD, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1268?
Our model-based fair value for Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 191.95 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 174.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1268?
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 191.95 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 138.22 TWD, optimistic scenario 252.88 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 191.95 TWD, about +10% upside versus a price of 174.50 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 138.22 TWD, optimistic scenario 252.88 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1268 use?
Our models discount Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.56 %: that much free cash flow Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd it is 191.95 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 174.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1268 trades below its calculated fair value: price 174.50 TWD, fair value 191.95 TWD, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1268?
No. The price is what the market pays today (174.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (191.95 TWD). For Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd the two are 17.45 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd at about 7.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 174.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 191.95 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1268?
Our models span a range for Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd: cautious scenario 138.22 TWD, base 191.95 TWD, optimistic 252.88 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 174.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1268?
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 191.95 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1268 from its 52-week high?
Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd trades at 174.50 TWD, about 6% below its 52-week high of 185.00 TWD and 13% above the low of 154.50 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 191.95 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 174.50 TWD, calculated fair value 191.95 TWD (+10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1268 calculated?
We run Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 191.95 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 174.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 191.95 TWD, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (138.22 TWD to 252.88 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The market capitalisation of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 7.4B TWD (≈ $231M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Earnings per share at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd are 10.10 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The dividend yield of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 4.6% (payout 79.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The net margin of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
The operating margin of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Revenue at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268)?
Earnings per share at Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd are growing +33.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd (1268) carry?
The net debt of Hi-Lai Foods Co Ltd is 2.0B TWD (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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