China New Town Development Company (1278) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$642M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +6.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 70% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0934). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0422 – HK$0.1593 · fair‑value band HK$0.0934 – HK$0.1638 · the HK$0.0700 price screens below the HK$0.1190 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China New Town Development Company (1278) currently trades at HK$0.0700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1190, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China New Town Development Company generated revenue of HK$389M at a net margin of 18.9%. Revenue grew 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. Net debt stands at HK$1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0934 (bear case) to HK$0.1638 (bull case); at HK$0.0700, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 70%, 1278 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.2900) versus Multiples (HK$0.2600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China New Town Development Company Limited engages in the new town development business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through Urbanisation Investment, Property Leasing, Building Construction, and Others segments.
Full company description
China New Town Development Company Limited engages in the new town development business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through Urbanisation Investment, Property Leasing, Building Construction, and Others segments. The company engages in the development and sale of land infrastructure; property leasing and operations; historical urbanization projects; and construction and preparation of ancillary public facilities. It also provides consultation; enterprise investment and real estate consultation; asset and investment management; investment and asset development; and property management and leasing services. China New Town Development Company Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China New Town Development Company reported revenue of HK$379M in FY2025 versus HK$273M in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$71.4M in FY2025, compounding −10.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 593 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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