China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of China New Town Development Co Ltd HK$0.13, price HK$0.07, upside +82.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0422 – HK$0.1593 · fair‑value band HK$0.0980 – HK$0.1610 · the HK$0.0690 price screens below the HK$0.1260 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China New Town Development Company Limited engages in the new town development business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through Urbanisation Investment, Property Leasing, Building Construction, and Others segments.
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China New Town Development Company Limited engages in the new town development business in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It operates through Urbanisation Investment, Property Leasing, Building Construction, and Others segments. The company engages in the development and sale of land infrastructure; property leasing and operations; historical urbanization projects; and construction and preparation of ancillary public facilities. It also provides consultation; enterprise investment and real estate consultation; asset and investment management; investment and asset development; and property management and leasing services. China New Town Development Company Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278) currently trades at HK$0.0690, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1260, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3400 per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$0.0690 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.2900, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0980 (bear) to HK$0.1610 (bull), the price of HK$0.0690 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
China New Town Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 379M CNY in FY2025 versus 273M CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 71.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$671M (≈ $85.5M) · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 83%, 1278 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0980Fair Value HK$0.1260Bull HK$0.1610
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0045 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+146.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.9% vs −9.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−51% → 50%
2025 sits 61% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare China New Town Development Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+82.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)18.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)34.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China New Town Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1278
Frequently asked questions
Is China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1260 versus a price of HK$0.0690, about +83% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1278?
Our model-based fair value for China New Town Development Co Ltd is HK$0.1260 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0690.
What is the quality score of 1278?
China New Town Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1260 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0980, optimistic scenario HK$0.1610. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China New Town Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1260, about +83% upside versus a price of HK$0.0690 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0980, optimistic scenario HK$0.1610. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
China New Town Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 389M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China New Town Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China New Town Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China New Town Development Co Ltd it is HK$0.1260 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0690. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China New Town Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1278 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0690, fair value HK$0.1260, a gap of about +83% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1278?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0690); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1260). For China New Town Development Co Ltd the two are HK$0.0570 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China New Town Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values China New Town Development Co Ltd at about HK$671M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0690; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1260 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1278?
Our models span a range for China New Town Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0980, base HK$0.1260, optimistic HK$0.1610 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0690). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1278?
China New Town Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1260 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Balance-sheet figures for China New Town Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.6%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1278 from its 52-week high?
China New Town Development Co Ltd trades at HK$0.0690, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1049 and 15% above the low of HK$0.0600 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1260 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China New Town Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China New Town Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0690, calculated fair value HK$0.1260 (+83%), Quality Score 49/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1278 calculated?
We run China New Town Development Co Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1260, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China New Town Development Co Ltd currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.0690. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1260, about +83% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China New Town Development Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0980). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of China New Town Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The market capitalisation of China New Town Development Co Ltd is HK$671M (≈ $85.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Earnings per share at China New Town Development Co Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The dividend yield of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 5.8% (payout 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The net margin of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 18.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
The operating margin of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 34.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Revenue at China New Town Development Co Ltd is growing +23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278)?
Earnings per share at China New Town Development Co Ltd are growing −5.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278) generate?
The free cash flow of China New Town Development Co Ltd is −31.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China New Town Development Co Ltd (1278) carry?
The net debt of China New Town Development Co Ltd is 1.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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