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Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company (1304) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 1.9B SAR

AY Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company 1304 · SR
Price37.30 SAR
Fair Value13.13 SAR
Upside-64.8%
Quality54/100
Weak Growth
Thin margins · 6.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Moderate moat 48/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 10.16 SAR – 20.14 SAR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −11.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.14 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (10.16 SAR to 20.14 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

54.70 SAR 20.58 SAR Fair Value 13.13 SAR Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 20.58 SAR – 54.70 SAR · fair‑value band 10.16 SAR – 20.14 SAR · the 37.30 SAR price screens above the 13.13 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company (1304) currently trades at 37.30 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.13 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 64.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company generated revenue of 1.9B SAR at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at 803M SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 10.16 SAR (bear case) to 20.14 SAR (bull case); at 37.30 SAR, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -65%, 1304 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 3.03 SAR 4.27 SAR 6.26 SAR 80
Residual Income 10.04 SAR 10.83 SAR 12.27 SAR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 10.93 SAR 18.63 SAR 28.00 SAR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 2.91 SAR 4.21 SAR 6.48 SAR 38
Owner Earnings 9.61 SAR 12.73 SAR 18.18 SAR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 10.93 SAR 18.59 SAR 29.76 SAR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 15.48 SAR 26.31 SAR 40.65 SAR 41
5Y P/E Exit 8.88 SAR 15.09 SAR 22.46 SAR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 6.92 SAR 12.65 SAR 19.41 SAR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 9.93 SAR 17.32 SAR 25.93 SAR 37
10Y P/E Exit 6.23 SAR 10.54 SAR 15.03 SAR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7.99 SAR 13.63 SAR 16.63 SAR 54
EPV 14.23 SAR 16.43 SAR 18.26 SAR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3.88 SAR 4.70 SAR 5.48 SAR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 3.88 SAR 4.96 SAR 6.12 SAR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 17.63 SAR 23.50 SAR 29.38 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 14.98 SAR 19.98 SAR 24.97 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 14.98 SAR 19.98 SAR 24.97 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 28.32 SAR 38.38 SAR 48.43 SAR 53
EV/EBITDA 29.14 SAR 39.48 SAR 49.82 SAR 54
EV/Revenue 18.48 SAR 27.20 SAR 35.92 SAR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6.12 SAR 8.20 SAR 12.24 SAR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 3.03 SAR 4.27 SAR 6.26 SAR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 10.93 SAR 18.63 SAR 28.00 SAR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 10.04 SAR 10.83 SAR 12.27 SAR 76
ROIC Compounder 14.34 SAR 16.84 SAR 19.38 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 12.47 SAR 17.81 SAR 23.16 SAR 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (23.50 SAR) versus Growth DCF (4.27 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.9B SAR
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.6%
Net margin 6.3%
Return on equity 15.6%
Free cash flow 28.8M SAR FY2025
P/E ratio 16.0
More key figures
Operating margin 13.0%
EPS (TTM) 2.34 SAR
EPS growth (YoY) +121%
Net debt 803M SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company manufactures and sells steel products to the construction, electrical, and telecommunication sectors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Construction, Electricity, and Renewable Energy Sector segments.

Full company description

Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company manufactures and sells steel products to the construction, electrical, and telecommunication sectors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Construction, Electricity, and Renewable Energy Sector segments. The company offers hot rolled hallow steel sections, cold rolled hallow steel sections, and steel sheets; space frames; and distribution poles, including octagonal, conical, and special products. It also manufactures and sells tubes, pipes, and hollow shapes from iron; metal structures and their parts for bridges and towers; and poles and their parts, such as lighting cabins and traffic lights, as well as manufactures and installs prefabricated steel structures for industrial facilities. In addition, the company is involved in producing reinforcing steel bars; and wholesale and retail trading of reinforcing steel bars. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company reported revenue of 1.9B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.6B SAR in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 59.7M SAR in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.9B SAR
Latest YoY
−4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+0.1%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
−0.3%
Revenue +3.8%/yr
FY21 1.6B SAR
FY22 1.5B SAR
FY23 1.6B SAR
FY24 2.0B SAR
FY25 1.9B SAR
Net income −26.8%/yr
FY21 208M SAR
FY22 −26.7M SAR
FY23 −130M SAR
FY24 70.8M SAR
FY25 59.7M SAR

1304 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1304.SR

Peer Group

Steel · 380 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.21× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 24
FUTURE 13 · sector 2
PAST 62 · sector 14
HEALTH 90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹185.26 ₹147.13 -21%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
SSAB AB SSABA kr 96.04 kr 72.43 -25%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company (1304) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.13 SAR versus a price of 37.30 SAR, about −65% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1304?
Our model-based fair value for Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company is 13.13 SAR (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 37.30 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1304?
Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company has a Quality Score of 54/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company (1304)?
Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1304?
The net profit margin of Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company is about 6.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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