China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd HK$0.70, price HK$0.35, upside +102.9%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1560 – HK$0.7500 · fair‑value band HK$0.5700 – HK$0.8600 · the HK$0.3450 price screens below the HK$0.7000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of raw milk in the People's Republic of China. It offers raw milk for processing dairy products. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Bayannur, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) currently trades at HK$0.3450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7000, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$1.06 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.3450 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2900, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5700 (bear) to HK$0.8600 (bull), the price of HK$0.3450 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −373M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.9B (≈ $365M) · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −12.4% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin 17.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 103%, 1432 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.5700Fair Value HK$0.7000Bull HK$0.8600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.5/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.6% (2020) → 18.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+97% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.7000 versus a price of HK$0.3450, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1432?
Our model-based fair value for China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is HK$0.7000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3450.
What is the quality score of 1432?
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.7000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5700, optimistic scenario HK$0.8600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.7000, about +103% upside versus a price of HK$0.3450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5700, optimistic scenario HK$0.8600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd pay a dividend?
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd it is HK$0.7000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3450. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1432 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3450, fair value HK$0.7000, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1432?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.7000). For China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd the two are HK$0.3550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd worth?
The market values China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd at about HK$2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3450; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.7000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1432?
Our models span a range for China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5700, base HK$0.7000, optimistic HK$0.8600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.3450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1432 from its 52-week high?
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd trades at HK$0.3450, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$0.4200 and 17% above the low of HK$0.2950 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.7000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.3450, calculated fair value HK$0.7000 (+103%), Quality Score 40/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1432 calculated?
We run China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.7000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$0.3450. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.7000, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.5700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The market capitalisation of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is HK$2.9B (≈ $365M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Earnings per share at China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The dividend yield of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The net margin of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is −12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
The operating margin of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Revenue at China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432)?
Earnings per share at China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd are growing +30.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) generate?
The free cash flow of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is −272M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) carry?
The net debt of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is 1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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