Li Ning Company (2331) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$37.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from HK$25.32 to HK$29.26 (+15.6%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 97% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$21.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$12.10 – HK$95.55 · fair‑value band HK$21.94 – HK$36.57 · the HK$14.89 price screens below the HK$29.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Li Ning Company (2331) currently trades at HK$14.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$29.26, implying the stock looks roughly 96.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Li Ning Company generated revenue of HK$29.6B at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$21.94 (bear case) to HK$36.57 (bull case); at HK$14.89, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 97%, 2331 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$38.92) versus Asset-Based (HK$7.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand.
Full company description
Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand. It also develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells outdoor sports products under the AIGLE brand; table tennis products under the Double Happiness brand name; and badminton products under the Kason brand name. In addition, the company provides brand licensing, administrative, research and development, and property management services. Further, it operates conventional stores, flagship stores, China LI-NING stores, factory outlets, and multi-brand stores under the LI-NING brand. Li Ning Company Limited was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Li Ning Company reported revenue of HK$29.6B in FY2025 versus HK$22.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Leisure · 191 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$20.97 | R$22.90 | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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