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Data-driven stock valuation

Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Li Ning Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$37.7B (≈ $4.8B) · ISIN KYG5496K1242

At a glance

LN Li Ning Co Ltd 2331 · HK
PriceHK$13.06
Fair ValueHK$29.50
Upside+125.9%
Quality72/100

A solid business, trading 56% below our fair value of HK$29.50.

As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of Li Ning Co Ltd is HK$29.50 per share against a price of HK$13.06, so the fair value sits 126% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
·5.17% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Weak on future: 16 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$22.13 to HK$36.88

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$29.45 to HK$29.50 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −11.5% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$22.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$95.55 HK$12.10 Fair Value HK$29.50 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$12.10 – HK$95.55 · fair‑value band HK$22.13 – HK$36.88 · the HK$13.06 price screens below the HK$29.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) currently trades at HK$13.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$29.50, implying the stock looks roughly 55.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$38.92 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$13.06 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$7.26, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Li Ning Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$29.6B at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$14.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Scenario range: HK$22.13 (bear) to HK$36.88 (bull), the price of HK$13.06 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 126%, 2331 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$29.84 HK$48.81 HK$81.89 78
Growth DCF HK$29.66 HK$47.06 HK$76.58 77
Owner Earnings HK$21.70 HK$34.04 HK$55.56 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$29.84 HK$48.81 HK$81.89 78
Owner Earnings HK$21.70 HK$34.04 HK$55.56 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$20.56 HK$28.95 HK$39.96 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.40 HK$38.92 HK$55.73 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$25.93 HK$40.02 HK$56.04 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$23.16 HK$32.18 HK$45.37 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$26.70 HK$39.50 HK$58.59 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$27.05 HK$40.30 HK$58.85 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$7.83 HK$36.51 HK$50.17 64
Lynch FV HK$9.64 HK$13.78 HK$17.91 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$9.64 HK$13.78 HK$17.91 57
EPV HK$16.43 HK$18.08 HK$19.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.91 HK$10.21 HK$16.19 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.91 HK$8.61 HK$10.71 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$18.99 HK$25.32 HK$31.65 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.44 HK$13.93 HK$17.41 58
P/B Multiple HK$14.68 HK$19.57 HK$24.46 55
EV/EBIT HK$27.19 HK$34.07 HK$40.95 66
EV/EBITDA HK$24.70 HK$30.75 HK$36.80 67
EV/Revenue HK$16.31 HK$20.48 HK$24.66 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.42 HK$7.26 HK$10.84 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$29.66 HK$47.06 HK$76.58 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$20.56 HK$28.95 HK$39.84 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.71 HK$10.91 HK$17.94 74
ROIC Compounder HK$17.79 HK$21.57 HK$26.38 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.73 HK$22.48 HK$29.22 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$38.92) versus Asset-Based (HK$7.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.3 as of Jul 19, 2026
P/S ratio 1.12 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.6700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3
Dividend yield 5.2% payout 101%
Net margin 9.9% FY2025
Return on equity 10.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$29.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.1% 3y avg +4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$4.6B FY2025
Net cash HK$14.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand.

Full company description

Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand. It also develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells outdoor sports products under the AIGLE brand; table tennis products under the Double Happiness brand name; and badminton products under the Kason brand name. In addition, the company provides brand licensing, administrative, research and development, and property management services. Further, it operates conventional stores, flagship stores, China LI-NING stores, factory outlets, and multi-brand stores under the LI-NING brand. Li Ning Company Limited was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Li Ning Co Ltd reported revenue of 29.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$29.6B
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+10.9%
Dividend yield5.2%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 10.9% vs 10Y 22.6%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15.2% (2020) → 13.2% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop265% (2012) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD
Revenue +7.0%/yr
FY21 22.6B CNY
FY22 25.8B CNY
FY23 27.6B CNY
FY24 28.7B CNY
FY25 29.6B CNY
Net income −7.5%/yr
FY21 4.0B CNY
FY22 4.1B CNY
FY23 3.2B CNY
FY24 3.0B CNY
FY25 2.9B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +27.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +14.7 %

of which total revenue +17.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.0 %

EBIT margin +16.3 %
Tax rate −2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Ning Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2331

Peer Group

Leisure · 193 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +118% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.37× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.53× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Li Ning Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-17.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+15.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price13.60 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.2 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 17
FUTURE16 · sector 14
PAST44 · sector 19
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 56

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 HK$65.10 HK$97.98 +51%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$154.70 HK$227.30 +47%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $27.77 $16.16 −42%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $90.31 $81.97 −9%
Life Time Group LTH $45.40 $15.61 −66%
Li Ning Company 82331 HK$11.62 HK$11.48 −1%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $89.10 $36.89 −59%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥44.94 ¥39.73 −12%
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.26 $18.93 +24%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $53.33 $52.62 −1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Li Ning Co Ltd (2331) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$29.50 versus a price of HK$13.06, about +126% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2331?
Our model-based fair value for Li Ning Co Ltd is HK$29.50 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.06.
What is the quality score of 2331?
Li Ning Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$29.50 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$22.13, optimistic scenario HK$36.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Ning Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$29.50, about +126% upside versus a price of HK$13.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$22.13, optimistic scenario HK$36.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
Li Ning Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$29.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2331?
The net profit margin of Li Ning Co Ltd is about 9.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Li Ning Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Li Ning Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.17% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Li Ning Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Aug 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2331 use?
Our models discount Li Ning Co Ltd at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Ning Co Ltd it is HK$29.50 per share (as of Aug 22, 2026), against a price of HK$13.06. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Ning Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 22, 2026, 2331 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$13.06, fair value HK$29.50, a gap of about +126% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2331?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$13.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$29.50). For Li Ning Co Ltd the two are HK$16.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Ning Co Ltd worth?
The market values Li Ning Co Ltd at about HK$37.7B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 22, 2026). Per share that is HK$13.06; our models calculate a fair value of HK$29.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2331?
Our models span a range for Li Ning Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$22.13, base HK$29.50, optimistic HK$36.88 per share (as of Aug 22, 2026, price HK$13.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2331?
Li Ning Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Aug 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$29.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 2331?
The PEG ratio of Li Ning Co Ltd is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Ning Co Ltd (2331)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Ning Co Ltd (as of Aug 22, 2026): return on equity 10.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2331 from its 52-week high?
Li Ning Co Ltd trades at HK$13.06, about 44% below its 52-week high of HK$23.42 (as of Aug 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$29.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Ning Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Ning Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 22, 2026: price HK$13.06, calculated fair value HK$29.50 (+126%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2331 calculated?
We run Li Ning Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$29.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Li Ning Co Ltd currently trades 126 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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