China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$2.7B (≈ $346M) · ISIN KYG2117U1022
What is China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 67% below our fair value of HK$1.14.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd is HK$1.14 per share against a price of HK$0.3750, so the fair value sits 204% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from HK$1.13 to HK$1.14 (+0.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1560 – HK$0.7500 · fair‑value band HK$0.8200 – HK$1.45 · the HK$0.3750 price screens below the HK$1.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd (1432) currently trades at HK$0.3750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.14, implying the stock looks roughly 67.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$1.06 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$0.3750 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2900, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.0B at a net margin of −12.4%. Revenue declined 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −9.4%. Net debt stands at HK$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.8200 (bear case) to HK$1.45 (bull case); at HK$0.3750, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 204%, 1432 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.06) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.2900). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and sale of raw milk in the People's Republic of China. It offers raw milk for processing dairy products. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Bayannur, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Shengmu Organic Milk Ltd reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −373M CNY in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Farm Products · 292 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM | $81.54 | $38.02 | −53% |
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.15 | ¥47.42 | +18% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $118.71 | $56.19 | −53% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $55.40 | $28.60 | −48% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥13.80 | ¥11.18 | −19% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 201.80 | kr 256.14 | +27% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥201.06 | ¥143.09 | −29% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.60 MYR | 23.34 MYR | −28% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 23.40 THB | 43.24 THB | +85% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 2,960 IDR | 6,818 IDR | +130% |
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