Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$551M
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 17, 2026, revised from HK$1.34 to HK$1.35 (+0.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +25.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 100% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4042 – HK$1.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.01 – HK$1.69 · the HK$0.6750 price screens below the HK$1.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) currently trades at HK$0.6750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.35, implying the stock looks roughly 100.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Luzheng Futures Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$693M at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue declined 50.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$389M. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.01 (bear case) to HK$1.69 (bull case); at HK$0.6750, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 100%, 1461 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.75) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.16). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhongtai Futures Company Limited provides brokerage services for commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage. The company operates through Brokerage Business, Risk Management Business, Asset Management, and Other Businesses segments.
Full company description
Zhongtai Futures Company Limited provides brokerage services for commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage. The company operates through Brokerage Business, Risk Management Business, Asset Management, and Other Businesses segments. The company provides consulting services in futures investments, asset management, basis trading, warehouse receipt service, cooperative hedging, and information technology consulting services, as well as engages in the market making business, over-the-counter derivatives business, and other business activities. The company was formerly known as LUZHENG FUTURES Company Limited and changed its name to Zhongtai Futures Company Limited in March 2022. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Jinan, the People's Republic of China. Zhongtai Futures Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$890M in FY2025 versus HK$2.3B in FY2021, a compound −20.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$83.3M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1461: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 423 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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