Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd HK$1.32, price HK$0.65, upside +104.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4042 – HK$1.05 · fair‑value band HK$0.9910 – HK$1.65 · the HK$0.6450 price screens below the HK$1.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Zhongtai Futures Company Limited provides brokerage services for commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage. The company operates through Brokerage Business, Risk Management Business, Asset Management, and Other Businesses segments.
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Zhongtai Futures Company Limited provides brokerage services for commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage. The company operates through Brokerage Business, Risk Management Business, Asset Management, and Other Businesses segments. The company provides consulting services in futures investments, asset management, basis trading, warehouse receipt service, cooperative hedging, and information technology consulting services, as well as engages in the market making business, over-the-counter derivatives business, and other business activities. The company was formerly known as LUZHENG FUTURES Company Limited and changed its name to Zhongtai Futures Company Limited in March 2022. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Jinan, the People's Republic of China. Zhongtai Futures Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) currently trades at HK$0.6450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.32, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 17 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9910 (bear) to HK$1.65 (bull), the price of HK$0.6450 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd reported revenue of 890M CNY in FY2025 versus 2.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −20.7%/yr. Reported net income was 83.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$646M (≈ $82.4M) · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 105%, 1461 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.9910Fair Value HK$1.32Bull HK$1.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0173 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.3%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.0% vs −2.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 14%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+104.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)12.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)26.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−50.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzheng Futures Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1461
Frequently asked questions
Is Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.32 versus a price of HK$0.6450, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1461?
Our model-based fair value for Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is HK$1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.6450.
What is the quality score of 1461?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.32 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9910, optimistic scenario HK$1.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luzheng Futures Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.32, about +105% upside versus a price of HK$0.6450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9910, optimistic scenario HK$1.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$693M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Luzheng Futures Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luzheng Futures Co Ltd it is HK$1.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6450. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Luzheng Futures Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1461 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6450, fair value HK$1.32, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1461?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.32). For Luzheng Futures Co Ltd the two are HK$0.6750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luzheng Futures Co Ltd worth?
The market values Luzheng Futures Co Ltd at about HK$646M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6450; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1461?
Our models span a range for Luzheng Futures Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9910, base HK$1.32, optimistic HK$1.65 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.6450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1461?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1461 from its 52-week high?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd trades at HK$0.6450, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$0.7887 and 28% above the low of HK$0.5028 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luzheng Futures Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luzheng Futures Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.6450, calculated fair value HK$1.32 (+105%), Quality Score 37/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1461 calculated?
We run Luzheng Futures Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Luzheng Futures Co Ltd currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.6450. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.32, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luzheng Futures Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9910). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) come from?
Earnings per share at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd grew −4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.4 %, EBIT margin −12.7 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The market capitalisation of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is HK$646M (≈ $82.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 0.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Earnings per share at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd are HK$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The dividend yield of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 1.1% (payout 23.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The net margin of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 9.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
The operating margin of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Revenue at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is growing −50.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461)?
Earnings per share at Luzheng Futures Co Ltd are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) generate?
The free cash flow of Luzheng Futures Co Ltd is −HK$2.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Luzheng Futures Co Ltd (1461) hold?
Luzheng Futures Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$389M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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