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GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 7, 2026: fair value of GC Construction Holdings Ltd HK$0.39, price HK$3.55, upside -89.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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GC
Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
GC Construction Holdings Ltd
1489 · HKStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
Generates free cash flow
Quality 58/100
Fair value HK$0.3900 · Strongly overvalued (−89.0%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.0 %/yr in HKD)
Loss-making · -23.4% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 10/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range HK$0.3000 – HK$4.42 · fair‑value band HK$0.3100 – HK$0.5100 · the HK$3.55 price screens above the HK$0.3900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
GC Construction Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a wet trades contractor in Hong Kong. The company undertakes plastering, tile laying, brick laying, floor screeding, and marble works for public or private residential and commercial properties. The company was formerly known as Chan Kiu Engineering Holdings Limited.
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GC Construction Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a wet trades contractor in Hong Kong. The company undertakes plastering, tile laying, brick laying, floor screeding, and marble works for public or private residential and commercial properties. The company was formerly known as Chan Kiu Engineering Holdings Limited. GC Construction Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) currently trades at HK$3.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3900, 89.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5000 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$3.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1400, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.3100 (bear) to HK$0.5100 (bull), the price of HK$3.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
GC Construction Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$260M in FY2026 versus HK$456M in FY2022, a compound −13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$60.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.5B (≈ $452M) · P/S ratio 8.82 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −23.4% · Return on equity −25.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin −50.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$260M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 899% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −89%, 1489 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.3100
Fair Value HK$0.3900
Bull HK$0.5100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
HK$0.3000
HK$0.3700
HK$0.4700
80
Growth DCF
HK$0.3100
HK$0.3700
HK$0.4600
77
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$0.3200
HK$0.4400
HK$0.6000
71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
HK$0.3000
HK$0.3700
HK$0.4700
80
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$0.3200
HK$0.4400
HK$0.6100
70
10Y Revenue Exit
HK$0.3000
HK$0.3800
HK$0.4600
66
Multiples
EV/Revenue
HK$0.3600
HK$0.5000
HK$0.6300
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$0.1100
HK$0.1400
HK$0.2100
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
HK$0.3100
HK$0.3700
HK$0.4600
77
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$0.3200
HK$0.4400
HK$0.6000
71
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Profitability
16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−51.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.2% (2021) → −5.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.4% a year for the price.
1489 screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 796 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinci SA DG | €108.00 | €186.22 | +72% | vs 1489 |
| Bouygues SA EN | €43.14 | €66.31 | +54% | vs 1489 |
| EMCOR Group EME | $769.03 | $525.05 | −32% | vs 1489 |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €95.00 | €62.20 | −35% | vs 1489 |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,728 | $1,116 | −35% | vs 1489 |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% | vs 1489 |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €407.40 | €203.86 | −50% | vs 1489 |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% | vs 1489 |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | $55.77 | $21.74 | −61% | vs 1489 |
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $719.56 | $162.77 | −77% | vs 1489 |
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Frequently asked questions
Is GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3900 versus a price of HK$3.55, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1489?
Our model-based fair value for GC Construction Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.55.
What is the quality score of 1489?
GC Construction Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3100, optimistic scenario HK$0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GC Construction Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3900, about −89% upside versus a price of HK$3.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3100, optimistic scenario HK$0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
GC Construction Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$260M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GC Construction Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +48.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1489 use?
Our models discount GC Construction Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GC Construction Holdings Ltd that is +48.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GC Construction Holdings Ltd grew -10.0 % a year. The price currently implies +48.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GC Construction Holdings Ltd (+48.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow GC Construction Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GC Construction Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.55. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GC Construction Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1489 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.55, fair value HK$0.3900, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1489?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3900). For GC Construction Holdings Ltd the two are HK$3.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GC Construction Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values GC Construction Holdings Ltd at about HK$3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.55; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1489?
Our models span a range for GC Construction Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.3100, base HK$0.3900, optimistic HK$0.5100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Balance-sheet figures for GC Construction Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −25.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1489 from its 52-week high?
GC Construction Holdings Ltd trades at HK$3.55, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$4.42 and 899% above the low of HK$0.3550 (as of Oct 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GC Construction Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GC Construction Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.55, calculated fair value HK$0.3900 (−89%), Quality Score 58/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1489 calculated?
We run GC Construction Holdings Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.3 % above its aggregate fair value. GC Construction Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The closing price on Oct 7, 2026 was HK$3.55. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3900, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GC Construction Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of GC Construction Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The market capitalisation of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is HK$3.5B (≈ $452M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is 8.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Earnings per share at GC Construction Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The net margin of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is −23.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is −25.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
The operating margin of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is −50.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Revenue at GC Construction Holdings Ltd is growing −60.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489)?
Earnings per share at GC Construction Holdings Ltd are growing −81.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GC Construction Holdings Ltd (1489) carry?
The net debt of GC Construction Holdings Ltd is HK$30.3M (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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